Need to estabish a legit fargo for myself. How do I do that if all I have is 3 sessions of APA data?
- Thread starter tg_vegas
- Start date
If you know the Fargo ratings of your opponents, and all your match scores, it is possible to do your own calculation. I believe someone posted a link to a tool they made that does this. Do you have that data?
You need to find weekly tournaments or leagues that report to Fargo. I don't think APA does at all, so that won't get you anywhere. You also need 200 games played. So if weekly tournaments, that might take 10 tournaments, depending on how deep you go and what the race lengths are.
Dumb question as I haven't played in a league in 25 years... Do all BCAPL areas use and report to Fargo? Or is it dependent on the local league operator?
Our local BCA LO states it is at the discretion of the LO.
The charts give nothing more than a very rough estimate.
The only realistic way to establish an actual Fargo is to play in leagues or tournaments that report into Fargo.
Yes, I understand Salotto could technically do that, but realistically, it's not gonna happen
Coos Cues
Coos Cues
One problem is you need to know what your opponent's fargo was the day you played them and also the algorithm takes into account what they do moving forward as well as what you do. If you want an accurate fargo score you need to play in fargo reported games one way or the other.
Join a BCA or USAPL league and if your area doesn't have one start one. It's not difficult. Then you will have full access to fargorate and LMS. USAPL doesn't even require fees to CSI. Personally I don't understand why it exists with the same owners as BCAPL.
You can also start a completely independent league not affiliated with CSI in any way and gain use of LMS to report scores into Fargorate for a fee of $20 per player per year. Lots of ways to do it but if your waiting for someone else maybe it's you.
SeniorTom
Well-known member
I am also trying to establish a Fargo rating with a 200 robustness. Right now I am at 395/108. I feel like I play better than my Fargo rating, but I have been playing a lot of quality players and struggle to get wins. The players I play are upper 400s all the way to upper 600s. I am wondering if this is the right way to get a Fargo rating, but that is the quality of my opponents.
Just keep at it. It will even out the more you play. Some days you will play great. Some days like garbage.
They say it isn't accurate until you have 200 games. Personally I think you need around 1k games to get a good idea. Your fargo is probably close to whatever it is for someone you play even with.
As a player gets more and more games in, the estimated error in his FargoRate rating goes down. It turns out that if a player has 10000 games in the system, his rating is expected to be within about 3 FargoRate points of his "true" rating.
On the other hand, if he has only 10 games in the system an error of 100 points can be expected a large fraction of the time. Obviously, pretty rough.
How much error would you be comfortable with between those two extremes? Maybe 20 points? 50?
Probability tells us how many games he has to have to get the likely error in his rating under a particular value.
dendweller
Well-known member
I don't see why salotto wouldn't do that for you. I think you pay 50 a year to have the pro version and can host unlimited matches. As long as the player you're playing at least has the free version, you can invite them, they accept and you keep score on the app. I think it's 2 dollars to submit a match, pretty sure it doesn't cost anything for the other player, not entirely sure about that.
To me it seems like your opponents matter to determine the true X number of games needed to be confident in the accuracy of the number, with the built in assumption being at least a medium level of opponent variability playing opponents both better and worse than you.
Taken to the extremes:
If the only thing in the system is me racing SVB to 200, I'm not sure you'd have anywhere near an idea how bad I am relative to SVB, other than to say I'm several orders of magnitude below him. Anyone Fargo 400 or below is likely to have about the same outcome.
However, if I have a 50% win rate against playing only players who are all Fargo 500 +/- 5 points, you can probably feel good about being a Fargo 500 +/- 10 only 100 or so racks in.
SeniorTom
Well-known member
The best thing about the open League I play in is you got the best and the worst in the house playing, so I think it's quite indicative of who I am at 400. Probably Fargo 250 to 700.
I would say 80% of players think they are better than their Fargo rating. It comes from the fact that most players remember when they play well much more than when they play badly and if they remember playing badly they dismiss it as "a dumb shot I should have made, so it does not really count when I try". Fargo is an average of good and bad days. Fargo not only tracks just wind and losses, it also tracks by how much you won or lost to get the rating. If you are winning vs a 400 5-0 5-0 5-0 your rating is different than if you win 5-3 5-4 5-3.