Overestimating opponents.

steev

steev

Lazy User
Silver Member
Every damn time I got into action with someone I don't know, I tend to assume they're good, or they wouldn't be gambling. Then, when they miss easy shots/position, the little voice in my head says 'oohh, so he's stalling, waiting for a bigger bet'. I can never convince myself that the guy just choked/dogged.

Anyone else have this 'problem'? I think it keeps me from making as much as I can, for various reasons. It also protects me from losing a lot, too, I guess. I do have a tendency to go off when I'm drunk, and I sure was last night.

-s
 
steev said:
Every damn time I got into action with someone I don't know, I tend to assume they're good, or they wouldn't be gambling. Then, when they miss easy shots/position, the little voice in my head says 'oohh, so he's stalling, waiting for a bigger bet'. I can never convince myself that the guy just choked/dogged.

Anyone else have this 'problem'? I think it keeps me from making as much as I can, for various reasons. It also protects me from losing a lot, too, I guess. I do have a tendency to go off when I'm drunk, and I sure was last night.

-s
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I would thinking overestimating would be better than underestimating! Is it really a problem for your action game that you see your opponents at higher ability levels than reality? Wouldnt that make you play better?
 
Always over estimate , but play with what they give you. They 'could' be hooking you or they could just be off that day. . . they could just suck. Take what you can get don't take any change in action that your not comfortable with at the time.

There's alot of sharks our there . . . in thier own minds. :) The real one's you probably won't see coming anyway.
 
steev said:
the little voice in my head says 'oohh, so he's stalling, waiting for a bigger bet'. -s
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It's because they are. They are all in it together to get you. One day they will lay off the stall.
 
Jude Rosenstock said:
I don't think getting a game with someone that dogs it is a problem.
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you've never heard of someone losing $100 to make $500? some random guy walks in, wants to gamble, no one knows who the hell he is.

now just because that's what i'm thinking, don't think i lay down or anything. i also won't raise the bet, once it's set (anymore :)).

of course this all happens when i'm quite drunk, which makes it quite harder.

-s
 
steev said:
you've never heard of someone losing $100 to make $500? some random guy walks in, wants to gamble, no one knows who the hell he is.

now just because that's what i'm thinking, don't think i lay down or anything. i also won't raise the bet, once it's set (anymore :)).

of course this all happens when i'm quite drunk, which makes it quite harder.

-s
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I've heard of them, I've just never seen them! Seriously, "hustling" is a lost art. There are very few (if any) hustlers anymore. The majority of pool players that visit Amsterdam Billiards in NYC walk in and say, "I play good. You got anybody here that plays good and gambles?"
 
Jude Rosenstock said:
There are very few (if any) hustlers anymore.
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small town, small bar. with all respect, i'm not sure your NYC experience relates.

-s

/i'm going out to play, don't tell my boss.
 
Yes I know exactly what youre talking about, this is why I don't gamble. Someone sees me run two racks in a row....and THEN wants to play me? Why would someone do that, unless they knew they could beat me. I always just figure they think that I think im better than I am, so even if I loose ill just keep raising the bet, going on pool tilt. The only time ill gamble with someone is if ive seen them play in a tournament situation, people generally don't dump in a tourney situation, so you get a good feel for their speed. But some stranger blows into town with a sneaky pete in a skinny case.....nah, lol.
 
If you play the table and not the player you will always do well..If the guy dogs shots you should win

If you think he is playing you for more cash don't raise the stakes...

Any decent player should be able to spot a guy who is on the lemon vs. a guy who just does'nt play very good..If not pay better attention


Word of wisdom if you win the cash playing multiple sets/games whatever...Don't raise the bet and let the guy beat you for the cash in 1 game or set..All your hard work will go down the drain
 
steev said:
small town, small bar. with all respect, i'm not sure your NYC experience relates.

-s

/i'm going out to play, don't tell my boss.
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Are you kidding? When I worked at Amsterdam Billiards, we'd get an out of town fool a week walking in asking to play anybody in the room for cash. It was WONDERFUL. I say I was good to make money about 95% of the time.
 
I had a situation where the guy was increasing the bets, and still losing. He wasn't playing well at all. I was even holding back my speed.

I told one of my buddies about it. I said the guy shouldn't even have been playing for money, and my buddy said, "well, I don't know about that".

So, I starting thinking about it a lot. I don't think this guy should have been playing for a penny a game.

I ended up getting the guys cue....because he couldn't pay up all of his losses.

Later, I shot around with his cue....and that is when I realized why he sucked so bad. The cue tip was all messed up. 1 out 10 shots resulted in a miscue. That's when I realized, the guy I was playing...probably could shoot real good, but was having the worst night of his life.....and he never figured out his cue tip was the root cause of his losses.

I guess I did him a favor by taking his cue.
 
It's never a bad thing to OVER estimate your opposition. Grady likes to teach to over estimate the other guy, and underestimate yourself by a total of 1.5 to 2 balls leaving you some breathing room if you are a little doggish. We all like to think we play at our "percieved" best all the time....BUT, we are most likely closer to about 85/90% of our best on most days IMO.

Grady also quoted a GREAT gambling saying he read at the room where Buddy Hall played while dominating the 9ball world not so long ago. It read something like this....

...warning, great players have come here and bet big, NEVER missed a ball and still went home broke"....or words very close to that meaning.

could you imagine?....I wish I had seen Buddy in his hayday!

Gerry
 
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