Play The Table Not The Player...NOT

[SakuJack]

Too much thought is going into this. Who works out percentages when playing? This isn't poker.

If I have a tough shot all I'm thinking is I go for it, is he capable of running out or do I play safe then A) can he reach the safety shot and/ or screw me over if he does, and B) can I get out from BIH where the safe OB would be.

If you are working percentages out then you are playing a different game than me.

lol, I don't think in percentages when I play (I just used them as an example), but I do think in terms of whether a player is favourite to make a shot or not.

 

[Aaron_S]

Too much thought is going into this. Who works out percentages when playing?

I do.

If you are working percentages out then you are playing a different game than me.

Maybe. My philosophy is to exercise as much control as possible over the things I actually can control, and to not worry too much about the things I can't. That means if I get outplayed or if I fail to execute the correct shots, those losses don't hurt as bad. If I lose by making poor decisions or by underestimating a weaker opponent, however, that is all on me, and I play a game that guards against those kinds of losses. That means I consider my options and percentages in tough situations, and I don't ever take it for granted that my weaker opponent is going to fail to execute a tough shot or out.

Aaron

 

[BeiberLvr]

Playing the player is all part of the fun. You have to play the table, regardless of the player but the player plays a huge part in how I play the table.

For instance there have been times when I can't run out, so I've missed on purpose and left my opponent a 7ft straight in where he has to draw back the full length of the table otherwise they snooker themselves. I know they will make the shot but its beyond their ability to draw the length of the table at this distance. They took on the shot and fell short in position and were completely screwed. They kicked, missed and I get BIH and run out the last 4 balls.

Now, if I'd merely played the table I'd have had to cut the ball in and go right around the table with a ton of english to get position. If I miss I likely leave the guy a shot with an angle so he could go around the table to get position. I chose to miss and leave him straight with a shot I know he couldn't pull off.

Sometimes playing the player will come back to haunt you, but at times playing the table will, too.

I think a better choice would be to miss the 7, and not let them see the ball

 

[Neil]

What if you have a shot that you're 50/50 (perhaps 60/40) to make. You're playing a weak player and have a safe on where you think he's, at best, 20% to either make the ball or leave you in trouble. The right option there is obviously to play the safe. Now say you're in the same situation playing Shane. This time you're still 50/50 or so to make the ball, but the safe you can play you feel Shane is a good 75% or so to make the ball or to leave you in a bad situation when you return. If I'm in that spot, I'm taking my chances and going for the pot.

I agree that you should generally look to play the table, as this ensures you play to your strengths and play your best, most consistent pool, but there are always situations in games where you should consider playing the man, too.

O.K., what about that? Here's a little true story that gives my answer:
Last Sun. at the local tourney, I'm watching an A player playing a guy that he has to give the 6 ball to. The A player gets out of line, and now is faced with a low percentage cut. (in his mind was low percentage, was very cuttable) or play safe on the 6 ball. He banks the 6 ball over by the 7 ball on the end rail, and leaves the cb at the other end of the table with nothing more than a backcut on the 6 to even hit it. No pocket available to make it in.

He thinks he did good. No way this lesser player is going to do anything more than leave him a decent shot, right? WRONG! This "lesser" player proceeds to thin the 6 so thin that it only moves one ball width and goes right behind the 7 while the cb goes two rails to leave the A player hooked. Now the A player is stuck trying to kick at the 6 to make it, when a few moments ago he actually had an open shot on it. The A player did kick at it, and left it hanging right in front of the pocket for his opponent to make his money ball for the match.

The A player played his opponent and got burned. The lower player pulled off a world class shot. When you start thinking your opponent can't do something, they are going to surprise you and do it.

 

[Bambu]

O.K., what about that? Here's a little true story that gives my answer:
Last Sun. at the local tourney, I'm watching an A player playing a guy that he has to give the 6 ball to. The A player gets out of line, and now is faced with a low percentage cut. (in his mind was low percentage, was very cuttable) or play safe on the 6 ball. He banks the 6 ball over by the 7 ball on the end rail, and leaves the cb at the other end of the table with nothing more than a backcut on the 6 to even hit it. No pocket available to make it in.

He thinks he did good. No way this lesser player is going to do anything more than leave him a decent shot, right? WRONG! This "lesser" player proceeds to thin the 6 so thin that it only moves one ball width and goes right behind the 7 while the cb goes two rails to leave the A player hooked. Now the A player is stuck trying to kick at the 6 to make it, when a few moments ago he actually had an open shot on it. The A player did kick at it, and left it hanging right in front of the pocket for his opponent to make his money ball for the match.

The A player played his opponent and got burned. The lower player pulled off a world class shot. When you start thinking your opponent can't do something, they are going to surprise you and do it.

True that can happen, but the A players reaction will vary. Some may come away saying they should have gone for the cut. Others would walk away thinking they did nothing wrong, and would play the same shot again. They may also feel the percentages were played correctly, and the other guy got lucky with the sick cut.

 

[CreeDo]

So, say I'm playing Shane in 9-ball and I can either take a shot that I figure to make half the time but would be followed by an easy out or play a weak safety that I can execute almost every time, I would take the shot. Against a player that isn't likely to be able to do anything with my weak safety, I'd play the safety. It all depends on which course of action is most likely to result in me winning the game. Letting Shane back to the table with a look at the object ball would probably result in a loss, but against a weak player, I might still be the favorite to win the rack.

It's not a question of why a shot that would work against Shane wouldn't work against a weaker player, it's a question of whether it's worth taking a risk on a shot that might work against Shane when there's a shot available the is more likely to work against the person you are playing.

I do get what you're saying. I'm thinking now of a practical example.

You have a thin cut you'd consider a 40% shot on the 8. 9 stuck to the foot rail.
Let's assume any missed shot = lose for either player.

The weak safe will leave a full table bank or long thin cut.
Shane is 70% to make those shots. The APA5 is 10%.

So the reasoning is... against shane I fire, because 40% chance at winning beats
safing and then having only a 30% chance of him missing and losing.

Against the APA 5 I safe because a 90% chance to get back beats my 40% chance if I shoot.

The problem is, the 90% is "artificially inflated" because the other guy is an APA5.
So can you steal a win vs. that 5 by exploiting his weakness? OK, I can admit it... yes.
But do you really care? You beat a guy you're supposed to beat anyway.
Does anyone track or care about wins vs. weak players?

Your odds of beating SHANE or any good player are no better.
And even if you win, you probably know it in the back of your head.
So I'd argue that, for the sake of personal improvement, you should learn to take those 40%
shots so you can learn how to win when you're playing someone with 'real odds' and not 'fake odds'.

Besides all that, I think in most pool situations, the relationship between safe-or-shoot
is not skewed like my example. A more realistic set of percentages will show that
the right shot with the best outcome is the same vs. either player, they just scale up or down.
The best option will still be the best option, it will just have a lower success rate vs. the pro.

 

[Pidge]

I think a better choice would be to miss the 7, and not let them see the ball

Not in this example. I could have missed the ball and got BIH, but I couldn't run out with BIH from that ball. Instead I needed BIH on the next ball to stand a chance at the run out.

 

[TSW]

O.K., what about that? Here's a little true story that gives my answer:
Last Sun. at the local tourney, I'm watching an A player playing a guy that he has to give the 6 ball to. The A player gets out of line, and now is faced with a low percentage cut. (in his mind was low percentage, was very cuttable) or play safe on the 6 ball. He banks the 6 ball over by the 7 ball on the end rail, and leaves the cb at the other end of the table with nothing more than a backcut on the 6 to even hit it. No pocket available to make it in.

He thinks he did good. No way this lesser player is going to do anything more than leave him a decent shot, right? WRONG! This "lesser" player proceeds to thin the 6 so thin that it only moves one ball width and goes right behind the 7 while the cb goes two rails to leave the A player hooked. Now the A player is stuck trying to kick at the 6 to make it, when a few moments ago he actually had an open shot on it. The A player did kick at it, and left it hanging right in front of the pocket for his opponent to make his money ball for the match.

The A player played his opponent and got burned. The lower player pulled off a world class shot. When you start thinking your opponent can't do something, they are going to surprise you and do it.

Sure, but you're still playing the odds. A few months ago I lost a hill-hill game late in a 9-ball tournament because my opponent played the wrong shot and made it.

It was one of those situations where my odds of running out were about 20%, but I could play a decent safety where my odds of getting back to the table in better position were about 75% (based on the layout and my opponent's skills). I played safe, and my opponent played a table-length combination, split the pocket, and ran out. The combination was maybe a 2% shot. It was a world-class shot and quite frankly a stupid shot given the percentages. But he made it when it counted, so hats off. Under the circumstances I'd play the exact same safety again.

Edit: In these situations you're also thinking: "what if I miss?" If I have a 20% cut and missing means leaving a hanger and a simple runout, I don't like shooting that shot against anyone my level or weaker. But if I'm playing Shane, and I think the odds of me winning a safety battle are less than 20%, I'm going for the shot.