Run out percentage?

gpeezy

gpeezy

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I wonder what the odds would be on one of the "Elite" players on running out a rack of 9 ball? Break then run. I was just thinking on how hard it is to run a 5 or 6. I'm sure conditions would make a difference so just say conditions similar to what they were on the Derby tournament table. (new simonis, fairly tight 9ft diamond.)
 
I don't think the answer is actually available.

The stats people quote are from tournaments, so they are a snapshot of a player's true ability.
 
Black-Balled said:
I don't think the answer is actually available.* The stats people quote are from tournaments, so they are a snapshot of a player's true ability.
Click to expand...
yeah, i think accu stats did this a while back and it was something like 30-35% of the time the pros would break and run, but it was stats from a tourney.
 
I've heard 33% a few times. JJ or GO once said that was their run out percentage... That was back when they won the open or something... Shooting well in other words...
 
Phil Capelle analyzed ~500 Accustats 9-Ball matches (IIRC) and the number that I remember was 37% of the time. I'll try to look that up tonite and confirm tomorrow.
 
Some simple math to get into the ballpark would be to assume the 33% (1/3) B&R rate. The odds of a 5 pack would be (1/3)^5 = 1/243 and the odds of a 6 pack would be (1/3)^6 = 1/729. We probably all "know" they do it more often than that.

This is a very simplistic exercise, but it gives you a sense of the difficulty of stringing multiple racks. Don't take any of this too seriously.

Using the same (knowlingly) blemished logic, imagine the poor sucker (me for example) that probably only runs out 1/8. A 5 pack would come every 33,000 racks. At 12 racks an hour, 6 hours a day, 365 days a year it would take 1.25 years to reach that goal...or 10 years for a 6 pack.
 
gpeezy said:
I wonder what the odds would be on one of the "Elite" players on running out a rack of 9 ball? Break then run. I was just thinking on how hard it is to run a 5 or 6. I'm sure conditions would make a difference so just say conditions similar to what they were on the Derby tournament table. (new simonis, fairly tight 9ft diamond.)
Click to expand...
A few people have posted that when analyzed (pre 2000) the odds were between 30-37%.

OK kind of interesting... but now what? What does it matter? If so how?
 
this way when you get hit with a six pack, you can stay the hell away from that guy when his 33% comes around again.:grin:
 
I was working on my break one day and came up with a exercise to measure its effectiveness and my overall 9-ball ability.

I used the counters on a GCII and counted the following

  • Rack#
  • Ball Made on Break
  • Open (Resonable) Shot on Break
  • Rack Run Out

I played 10 racks and marked my results of the above items on the counters.

Here was my honest score

racks played - 10
ball made on break - 7 (70%)
Open (reasonable) shot after break - 5 (50%)
Run out after break - 2 (20%) or (40% on open resonable shots)

Obviously this is my home table. The whole intent was actually to develop not so much my run out but my ball made on break % and open shot %.

I was working on "controlling the table" (so to speak)

I decided to track the run outs just cause...(some racks although probably runable I may have opted to play a safe after the first inital shot after the rack.

I usually hate "drills" like this , but felt like this was a good developmental drill for working on a crucial part of 9-ball...that seems to kill me when I run in to top ranked players......keeping control of the table....You don't have to run out every time...but you can't give up control of the table...cause I don't seem to ever get it back....;)

This is a exercise I plan on doing more often.
 
The given numbers can be used to estimate when you or a friend are ready for the big time. From another perspective, if you know your own particular percentage it gives an idea about the weight you need to get from other players if you or someone else has estimated their run out percentage.

Course you could just play the guy with red hair even up cause everyone knows you can lie with statistics. Then too you can kill people with an automobile.
 
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