Shane's path to the DCC 9b title?

jsp said:
Keep in mind that SVB had a buy-back option and he did use it after losing to Alex. So that changes the overall probability considerably.

Things get a little complicated factoring the buy-back and the redraw, but let's keep it simple and assume that if you do lose and buy-back, you still have to win against the same number of people. So if x is the probability Shane wins against a given Filipino and n is the number of Filipinos he has to face, then the overall probability P he will get through all n Filipinos (using or not using the buy-back option) is...

P = x^n + n*(1-x)*x^n

The first term is the chance Shane makes it through without using the buy-back (goes undefeated) and the second term is the chance he makes it through while using the buy-back (one loss).

If n=5 and plugging a few probabilities for x gives...

x = 0.5 -> P = 10.9%
x = 0.6 -> P = 23.3%
x = 0.7 -> P = 42.0%
x = 0.8 -> P = 65.5%
x = 0.9 -> P = 88.6%

So for the case that Shane is 80% likely to beat a Filipino (x = 0.8), the buy-back options he had available essentially doubles his chances that he'll make it through all 5 Filipinos.
Click to expand...
Does this factor in the fact that his break is 31.7% better than the rest of the field? :cool:
 
GideonF said:
This is at least slightly off topic, but what a strong field at the DCC this year. It included the following world champions (just off the top of my head)

Efren
Busty
Niels
Mika
Alex
Ralph S
Big Ko
Darren
Earl
Toasty

Plus some people who have "only" won the US Open

Corey
Kevin
Jeremy
Gabe
SVB

Did I miss anyone?
Click to expand...

Dennis- he won World 8 Ball Championship :smile:



Black-Balled said:
Really? I would say someone does it at least that well- sometimes better- every year.
Click to expand...

Correct
Any of the elite will have a great run or runs every once in while
:smile:
 
spartan said:
Dennis- he won World 8 Ball Championship :smile:





Correct
Any of the elite will have a great run or runs every once in while
:smile:
Click to expand...
All of the players listed above have went undefeated thru fields like this.... Shane just does it with more regularity.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top