Statistical Odds on Pushing vs 'Goin For It'

[James Dean_Yo]

Why do I push in the game of 9ball, when I could have kicked with firm speed and still monkeyed the rack to the point of no run out anyways?

What are the tentative odds of winning the rack when you push and let the opponent to the table compared to just letting the cue ball fly into the OB and either A.) FOUL B.) HIT THE OB AND SLOP A BALL IN, ETC OR C.) PULL A MAGICIAN KICK SAFE ? ? ?

I guess my thought is unorganized so my question is: Is there a way of looking at the push maneuver in the game of 9ball from a statistical standpoint? If so, would someone want to try and run the odds on how each particular scenario could play out?

If this can be answered from a numbers standpoint, I would be interested if it would change one's decision to push out. I do fully understand the purpose of inducing your opponent into a shot that can be beneficial to you (the initial shooter). I also understand that there are situations where you have to push because it's the only way to legally move the CB w/o fouling but, what about those other situations!?

All schools of thought are welcome, JD_YO

 

[12310bch]

My own rules:

1) If you can see it but it is a low percentage make , play safe

2) If you can't see it but it's an easy , controllable kick, kick it.

3) If you can't see it and an attempt at a kick might miss and give opponent ball in hand, push it

It's my personal feeling that to be given back the shot after a push means it was a successful shot because you can now play safe.

I should mention that I lose a lot.

 

[jimmyg]

Interesting thought process, but impossible to determine.

Unlike being able to mathamatically calculate odds from a fixed number of possibilities, like with a deck of cards, we are faced with untold possibilities, including the most impossible one to determine, the human factor....even more difficult when you consider the double human factor; your opponent.

The closest method possible would be after the fact averages calculated from dozens, or hundreds, of recorded games. Even then, it would no more accurate than handicapping a horse race.

Try it and let us know.

J

 

[James Dean_Yo]

Thank You 12310bch! With that simple yet thorough explanation, I realize I just might have had one too many beers last night!

 

[James Dean_Yo]

Thank You jimmyg, I'm quickly realizing that as well because i've tried!

peace, JD_YO

 

[LAlouie]

Depends on how good the player is = know your speed.

 

[ctyhntr]

You can review old issues of accustats here. Pat Fleming spent alot of time analyzing and breaking it down to useful statistics.

http://www.azbilliards.com/accustats/

 

[DogsPlayingPool]

Yeah, I really don't see how it can be statistically meaningful to players in general unless everyone played at the identical skill level. For example, if I played Efren 10,000 times I have the feeling the stats of not pushing out being successful for me would be somewhat lower than for Efren. :embarrassed2:

 

[AtLarge]

I don't have any data readily available on 9-ball pushes, but here's a little from the two big pro 10-ball tournaments the past two weeks (Masters in Virginia and Pro Players Championship in Pennsylvania).

For the streamed games that I watched and scored:

• Breaker pushed 20 times, winning 7 (35%) of those games and losing 13.
• Non-breaker pushed 16 times, winning 4 (25%) of those games and losing 12.
• Combined, the player who pushed won 11 (31%) of the games and lost 25.

Although this is a pretty small sample, it's consistent with the expectation that the player who pushes is at a disadvantage, because it's the other player who has the choice on whether to shoot.