Statistics and pool

Bob Callahan

Bob Callahan

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
There are a lot of great, simple ideas from statistics that can be used for pool. For instance, if you are slightly better than another player (or versa vice) what are the odds of winning a race to something?

Suppose they are slightly better than you...let's say 55% of the time they'll win a game. That'd mean that you'd have a 45% chance, which doesn't sound all that bad, does it? But in a race, the probabilities are added. The longer the race, the less chance you'll win it! In a race to 8, for instance, they are likely to win a little better than 65% of the time.

If you want to know how to calculate for other races, or different probabilities, the relevant mathematics is here:

http://nrich.maths.org/353/solution

You could, of course, hope they have a bad day, and you have an exceptional one....

If there is enough interest in this kind of thing, I'll post how to use statistics to predict high runs based on average runs, or the likelihood of making a certain number of balls on the break, based on your average number of balls made on the break.
 
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Surely the problem here is that we are not talking about independent events?
 
Siz said:
Surely the problem here is that we are not talking about independent events?
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This is true unless you play alternate break, but even with winner breaks there is a fairly low correlation between breaker and winner in most matches.
 
I guess I should say something about another thing that might not be so obvious from the initial post. What happens if you play sets all night long? Well, you treat each set as if it were a game in the original analysis. If your chance of winning a set is 55%, then your chance of winning 8 out of 15 sets is a little more than 65%.

A lot of the foundations of statistics (and incidentally, computing) are based on trying to understand gambling.
 
Siz said:
I was thinking more of the mental side.
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The problem with the mental side is that its really hard to measure and observe. If we just go from the things we can observe (statistics) we can usually predict pretty well the likely range of outcomes (probabilities). Statistics can also tell us whether the events are independent. As far as top-level 9-ball play goes, what has been reported from the statistics is that the breaker does not win more than about 50% of the time. Statistically, there seem to be no more streaks than you would expect from a random number generator set up with the same probabilities. At basketball, the "hot hands" phenomenon was studied and the result was that there is no "hot hands" phenomenon.
 
Bob Jewett said:
The problem with the mental side is that its really hard to measure and observe. If we just go from the things we can observe (statistics) we can usually predict pretty well the likely range of outcomes (probabilities). Statistics can also tell us whether the events are independent. As far as top-level 9-ball play goes, what has been reported from the statistics is that the breaker does not win more than about 50% of the time. Statistically, there seem to be no more streaks than you would expect from a random number generator set up with the same probabilities. At basketball, the "hot hands" phenomenon was studied and the result was that there is no "hot hands" phenomenon.
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So there's no such thing as being in "dead stroke," either?

Roger
 
Roger Long said:
So there's no such thing as being in "dead stroke," either?

Roger
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That's a good question. I've had the feeling of being in "dead stroke" myself, but how would you go about demonstrating it from the statistics? In the case of basketball -- and I haven't actually seen the report myself -- it was shown that the equivalent did not exist.

If there is such a thing as "dead stroke" then you would expect long runs to occur more often than the simple "single shot" statistics would predict. Where this has been demonstrated to a degree is in "runnable" games like 14.1 and simple carom billiards in which once you get a good position, you can stay "in line" for a long time, so if you make a shot, it is very likely that you will make the next, but if you come to the table from your opponent's leave, your chances are not so good.
 
Statistically speaking, "dead stroke" may be an outlier--data that should be thrown out since it deviates too far from the norm, and will skew things.

Unless you're in dead stroke all the time.

How much better do you actually play when you are in dead stroke?
 
Bob Callahan said:
Statistically speaking, "dead stroke" may be an outlier--data that should be thrown out since it deviates too far from the norm, and will skew things.

Unless you're in dead stroke all the time.

How much better do you actually play when you are in dead stroke?
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I agree with both you and Bob Jewett here, but we can't really deny that basketball players and pool players alike have periods of time when they quiet their minds and perform at higher levels than when they allow distractions to creep in and ruin things for them. However, I don't know that we could ever throw out the labels of "hot hand" and "dead stroke" since these are colorful terms that merely describe those infrequent times when the player gets it all together. :smile:

Roger
 
Here's an easy-to-read article about the "Hot Hands" fallacy:

http://conferences.inf.ed.ac.uk/cogsci2001/pdf-files/0152.pdf

I'm no doubter about being in dead stroke. In another thread I talked about, "flow" in rock climbing. And when I skate, I'm pretty much in flow the entire time--no sense of time passing, ultra-quick responses to changing conditions, relaxed concentration, a feeling of great well-being....

But I'm not sure just how much better I really am when I'm in dead stroke. It's certainly true that if you feel like you are in that state, you'll do better. I wonder which actually comes first: feeling good about how well you are playing, or dead stroke?
 
Maybe this quote will help ......

[Fast Eddie is bothered because Bert called him a born loser]
Fast Eddie: Cause, ya see, twice, Sarah... once at Ames with Minnesota Fats and then again at Arthur's, in that cheap, crummy pool room, now why'd I do it, Sarah? Why'd I do it? I coulda beat that guy, coulda beat 'im cold, he never woulda known. But I just hadda show 'im. Just hadda show those creeps and those punks what the game is like when it's great, when it's REALLY great. You know, like anything can be great, anything can be great. I don't care, BRICKLAYING can be great, if a guy knows. If he knows what he's doing and why and if he can make it come off. When I'm goin', I mean, when I'm REALLY goin' I feel like a... like a jockey must feel. He's sittin' on his horse, he's got all that speed and that power underneath him... he's comin' into the stretch, the pressure's on 'im, and he KNOWS... just feels... when to let it go and how much. Cause he's got everything workin' for 'im: timing, touch. It's a great feeling, boy, it's a real great feeling when you're right and you KNOW you're right. It's like all of a sudden I got oil in my arm. The pool cue's part of me. You know, it's uh - pool cue, it's got nerves in it. It's a piece of wood, it's got nerves in it. Feel the roll of those balls, you don't have to look, you just KNOW. You make shots that nobody's ever made before. I can play that game the way... NOBODY'S ever played it before.
Sarah Packard: You're not a loser, Eddie, you're a winner. Some men never get to feel that way about anything.
 
duckie said:
Maybe this quote will help ......

[Fast Eddie is bothered because Bert called him a born loser]
Fast Eddie: Cause, ya see, twice, Sarah... once at Ames with Minnesota Fats and then again at Arthur's, in that cheap, crummy pool room, now why'd I do it, Sarah? Why'd I do it? I coulda beat that guy, coulda beat 'im cold, he never woulda known. But I just hadda show 'im. Just hadda show those creeps and those punks what the game is like when it's great, when it's REALLY great. You know, like anything can be great, anything can be great. I don't care, BRICKLAYING can be great, if a guy knows. If he knows what he's doing and why and if he can make it come off. When I'm goin', I mean, when I'm REALLY goin' I feel like a... like a jockey must feel. He's sittin' on his horse, he's got all that speed and that power underneath him... he's comin' into the stretch, the pressure's on 'im, and he KNOWS... just feels... when to let it go and how much. Cause he's got everything workin' for 'im: timing, touch. It's a great feeling, boy, it's a real great feeling when you're right and you KNOW you're right. It's like all of a sudden I got oil in my arm. The pool cue's part of me. You know, it's uh - pool cue, it's got nerves in it. It's a piece of wood, it's got nerves in it. Feel the roll of those balls, you don't have to look, you just KNOW. You make shots that nobody's ever made before. I can play that game the way... NOBODY'S ever played it before.
Sarah Packard: You're not a loser, Eddie, you're a winner. Some men never get to feel that way about anything.
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I wonder how many trips to the restroom he took....
 
Unfortunately our lifetime is too short to get a good statistics in any field.
What you are saying is more related to common sense than statistics, which tries to explain some of the laws behind what we are calling chaos.

Bob Callahan said:
There are a lot of great, simple ideas from statistics that can be used for pool. For instance, if you are slightly better than another player (or versa vice) what are the odds of winning a race to something?

Suppose they are slightly better than you...let's say 55% of the time they'll win a game. That'd mean that you'd have a 45% chance, which doesn't sound all that bad, does it? But in a race, the probabilities are added. The longer the race, the less chance you'll win it! In a race to 8, for instance, they are likely to win a little better than 65% of the time.

If you want to know how to calculate for other races, or different probabilities, the relevant mathematics is here:

http://nrich.maths.org/353/solution

You could, of course, hope they have a bad day, and you have an exceptional one....

If there is enough interest in this kind of thing, I'll post how to use statistics to predict high runs based on average runs, or the likelihood of making a certain number of balls on the break, based on your average number of balls made on the break.
Click to expand...
 
Bob Callahan said:
Statistically speaking, "dead stroke" may be an outlier--data that should be thrown out since it deviates too far from the norm, and will skew things.

Unless you're in dead stroke all the time.

How much better do you actually play when you are in dead stroke?
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Why would you throw out long successful streaks unless you also throw out long cold streaks? I'd imagine people spend as much time shooting cold as shooting hot. They just remember the good parts better.
 
I would have to assume that the "Dead Stroke" sessions will be counter balanced by the cold streaks if looked at over a reasonalbe period of time.

The one thing that hasn't been brought up about statistics is the one that I have used playing 9 ball. That is, what are the chances of your opponent running out, or more importantly, how many balls can your opponent run? If I'm playing someone who I know has let's say 4 or 5 ball run potential, then I'll usually leave them an easy shot or two at the beginning of the game so they can get their run and I come to the table with only a few balls left. Or, if playing a run out player, then I know to look for a safe if I can't get out. Just my $.02
 
If you use Bayes theorem as a foundation for modeling probability, you could take into account prior probabilities and likelihoods. This would allow you to keep track of if you are shooting hot or cold and adjust the expected probability accordingly.
 
Dareads you are right

Hal Mix taught me in the 70's too know how many balls my oppenent could run playing nine ball. I would then leave them one or two balls and have a field day. Statistics are true over the long run.

Many of my opponents in the old days, always said, Barney I know I am a better player but why can't I beat you. I always laughed and told them they just played bad when they played me.

Remember "Old age and treachery will overcome youth and skill".

I have been taking statistics for 40 years on all the great players. It makes my bets safer.

RIP Hal, Barney
 
BarneyCalip said:
Remember "Old age and treachery will overcome youth and skill".
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Is that where you trip them with your cane, and then drool on their chalk?

:thumbup:Whatever works, works. There're a boatload of parts of the game that don't happen at the table.
 
.

My son majored in math and works with statistics. He follows sports and analyzes a lot of the data. He claims there is no such thing as a clutch hitter in baseball. It is just something people like to imagine or talk about.

.
 
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