Stats -- Gorst vs. Pagulayan 10-Ball Races to 25 and 50, February 2022

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Here are some results from the Fedor Gorst vs. Alex Pagulayan 10-Ball matches played at The Rack & Grill III in Aiken, South Carolina on February 2-4, 2022. Pay-per-view streaming was provided by PoolActionTV. The primary commentator was Jeremy Jones, with some assistance from Scott Rabon and Ray Hansen.

This event was intended to be a single race to 75 game wins played over 3 days. Gorst was leading 25-15 after the first day of play. Prior to the start of the second day of play, the players had a disagreement about the racking conditions, and settled it by (1) declaring the first match over, with Gorst receiving prize money for winning the terminated match, and (2) starting a second match as a race to 50 over 2 days, with the rack being switched from a triangle rack to an Accu-Rack template. Gorst also won the second match. The scores for the 3 days of play were (Gorst's score first):
Match 1 -- 25 - 15​
Match 2, first day -- 25 - 20​
Match 2, second day -- 25 - 25 ( Match 2 total -- 50 - 45)​
Total of both matches -- 75 - 60​

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- 9-foot Diamond table with 4 3/8" corner pockets;​
- fairly new, blue Simonis cloth;​
- Aramith Tournament balls with a Pro Cup cue ball;​
- triangle rack for Match 1, Accu-Rack template for Match 2;​
- rack your own, with the 1-ball on the foot spot (2-ball and 3-ball need not be on the back corners);​
- winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​
- call shots (but not safes), with the opponent having a choice of shooting or passing it back if a ball is pocketed illegally;​
- early called combos or caroms on the 10-ball win the game (a 10-ball on the break is spotted);​
- 3-foul rule in effect (did not happen);​
- jump cues allowed;​
- cue ball fouls only;​
- no shot clock; and​
- lag for opening break (won by Pagulayan for Match 1 and by Gorst for Match 2.​

Here are a few stats for Match 1:
Successful breaks -- 71% (17 of 24) for Gorst, 44% (7 of 16) for Pagulayan, 60% (24 of 40) in total​
Breaker won game -- 63% (15 of 24) for Gorst, 38% (6 of 16) for Pagulayan, 53% (21 of 40) in total​
Break-and-run games on all breaks -- 42% (10 of 24) for Gorst, 13% (2 of 16) for Pagulayan, 30% (12 of 40) in total​
B&R games on successful breaks -- 59% (10 of 17) for Gorst, 29% (2 of 7) for Pagulayan, 50% (12 of 24) in total​

The remainder of this post applies only to Match 2, the race to 50 on the second and third days.

■ Gorst broke 50 times -- successful 37 times (resulting in 22 game wins and 15 losses), 3 fouls (2 wins and 1 loss), and 10 dry (3 wins, 7 losses).

■ Pagulayan broke 45 times -- successful 30 times (resulting in 19 game wins and 11 losses), 6 fouls (1 win, 5 losses), and 9 dry (2 wins, 7 losses).

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Gorst -- 37 of 50 (74%)​
Pagulayan -- 30 of 45 (67%)​
Total -- 67 of 95 (71%)​

Unsuccessful breaks (fouled or dry):
Gorst -- 13 of 50 (26%)​
Pagulayan -- 15 of 45 (33%)​
Total -- 28 of 95 (29%)​

Breaker won game:
Gorst -- 27 of 50 (54%)​
Pagulayan -- 22 of 45 (49%)​
Total -- 49 of 95 (52%)​

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
Gorst -- 13 of 50 (26%)​
Pagulayan -- 15 of 45 (33%)​
Total -- 28 of 95 (29%)​

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Gorst -- 13 of 37 (35%)​
Pagulayan -- 15 of 30 (50%)​
Total -- 28 of 67 (42%)​

Fouls and foul rates: [Note: "games at the table" means total games less opponent's B&R games.]
Gorst -- 8 fouls, including 3 on the break, in 80 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 10.0 games at the table)​
Pagulayan -- 14 fouls, including 6 on the break, in 82 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 5.9 games at the table)​
Total -- 22 fouls in 95 games (1 per 4.3 games)​

Missed shots (est.):
Gorst -- 25 misses in 80 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 3.2 games at the table)​
Pagulayan -- 19 misses in 82 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 4.3 games at the table)​
Total -- 44 misses in 95 games (1 per 2.2 games)​

Run-outs from first shot after break:
By Gorst after his own successful break -- 13 of 37 (35%)​
By Gorst after Pagulayan's failed break -- 10 of 15 (67%)​
By Gorst, total -- 23 of 52 (44%)​
By Pagulayan after his own successful break -- 15 of 30 (50%)​
By Pagulayan after Gorst's failed break -- 3 of 13 (23%)​
By Pagulayan, total -- 18 of 43 (42%)​
Total for Gorst and Pagulayan -- 41 of 95 (43%)​

Run-outs from first shot after Gorst's break:
By Gorst -- 13 of 37 (35%)​
By Pagulayan -- 3 of 13 (23%)​
Total -- 16 of 50 (32%)​

Run-outs from first shot after Pagulayan's break:
By Pagulayan -- 15 of 30 (50%)​
By Gorst -- 10 of 15 (67%)​
Total -- 25 of 45 (56%)​

Break-and-run packages
Gorst's 13 B&R games consisted of 1 3-pack, 1 2-pack, and 8 singles​
Pagulayan's 15 B&R games consisted of 3 2-packs and 9 singles​

Games with 1 or more safeties (est.)
40% of all games (38 of 95)​
57% of games that were not B&Rs (38 of 67)​

Average number of balls made on the break:
Gorst -- 1.2 on all breaks, 1.6 on successful breaks​
Pagulayan -- 1.1 on all breaks, 1.5 on successful breaks​
Total -- 1.2 on all breaks, 1.5 on successful breaks​

Number of innings -- 57% (54 of 95) of the games ended in one inning, with 28 games ending on the breaker's first inning (B&R games) and 26 games ending on the non-breaker's first inning. Nine games ended on the breaker's second inning, and 12 games ended on the non-breaker's second inning. 21% (20 of 95) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table, with the longest game ending on the non-breaker's 9th visit.

Distribution of consecutive game wins, i.e. winning streaks. Counts are given for Gorst first, then Pagulayan, then the total.
1 game -- 9 times, 13 times, 22 times​
2 games -- 8, 5, 13​
3 games -- 4, 2, 6​
4 games -- 2, 0, 2​
5 games -- 1, 2, 3​
6 games -- 0, 1, 1​

10-balls on the break -- None.

Match length -- Approximately 12 1/6 hours, for an average of 7.7 minutes per game. This includes racking and timeouts. There were no long intermissions.
 
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great stats, AL
pags was cleaner with the misses, but did foul worse off the break
fedor appears to have broken better, overall- the difference, I guess?
 
Just by looking at the numbers, I don't think Gorst can play with Shane, Shaw, and Filler.
 
Thanks for the stats.
My interpretation is that Fedor let Alex hang around (you don't show your hand if you don't need too).
Since it's winner breaks, two major stats show me this:
1) Fedor "missed" more shots (gave the table back to Alex when he felt he should) &
2) Fedor had a higher percentage of runouts on Alex's failed breaks (grabbed control of the table back)
Gorst never felt like he wasn't in control of either match.
Alex tried to shark him (pool racking bs) after realizing after day one he couldn't beat Fedor.
Gorst played (controlled) the games the way he needed to play- both matches- to get the results his backers wanted.
Gorst's pool IQ and confidence are unreal for his age.
Congrats to young Fedor!
Hey Alex, challenge him straight up to one-pocket, we'd all love to see it!
 
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Thanks for the stats.
My interpretation is that Fedor let Alex hang around (you don't show your hand if you don't need too).
Since it's winner breaks, two major stats show me this:
1) Fedor "missed" more shots (gave the table back to Alex when he felt he should) &
2) Fedor had a higher percentage of runouts on Alex's failed breaks (grabbed control of the table back)
Gorst never felt like he wasn't in control of either match.
Alex tried to shark him (pool racking bs) after realizing after day one he couldn't beat Fedor.
Gorst played (controlled) the games the way he needed to play- both matches- to get the results his backers wanted.
Gorst's pool IQ and confidence are unreal for his age.
Congrats to young Fedor!
Hey Alex, challenge him straight up to one-pocket, we'd all love to see it!
If a match is on the square I highly doubt Fedor or anybody else is going to be intentionally playing at less than their full speed for that amount of money against a top tier player/gambler of Alex's caliber, backer or not. Fedor is fully aware of what Alex is capable of and if you are intentionally laying down keeping it relatively close there is too much risk of that biting you and Alex ending up winning. Alex is hard enough to beat when giving 100%. Down the stretch of a long set when you have a substantial lead sure, you might start let off the gas, but otherwise what you are going to do is play your best and give yourself the best chance to win because you know what can easily happen if you don't, especially with as big a factor as the break is and how it can suddenly stop working for you at any time with no apparent good reason.

I also highly doubt Alex is going to be highly intimidated if he were to get blown in a single set either so there really isn't even a reason for Fedor to be taking that risk right in this session. They know that at their level there can be big swing in the final score of any given set, even a long one, where one guy wins by a huge amount and that it doesn't necessarily say much about their relative skill levels. Highly doubt Fedor was doing anything else here but playing to the best of his capabilities at that moment.

As for one pocket, I was highly impressed with Fedor's one pocket game, especially considering how new he is to it, but I think it is a bit too soon for him to be trying to match up even with Alex in that game. Fedor should work his way up with some other one pocket opponents first to confirm his one pocket game is really at that level and will consistently hold up before he goes about trying to slay that dragon.
 
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If Gosf won 50 and Alex won 45, doesn’t that mean Gorst broke 49 games? Alex broke 45, but Fedor wouldn’t have needed to break after he won his 50th.
 
If a match is on the square I highly doubt Fedor or anybody else is going to be intentionally playing at less than their full speed for that amount of money against a top tier player/gambler of Alex's caliber, backer or not. Fedor is fully aware of what Alex is capable of and if you are intentionally laying down keeping it relatively close there is too much risk of that biting you and Alex ending up winning. Alex is hard enough to beat when giving 100%. Down the stretch of a long set when you have a substantial lead sure, you might start let off the gas, but otherwise what you are going to do is play your best and give yourself the best chance to win because you know what can easily happen if you don't, especially with as big a factor as the break is and how it can suddenly stop working for you at any time with no apparent good reason.

I also highly doubt Alex is going to be highly intimidated if he were to get blown in a single set either so there really isn't even a reason for Fedor to be taking that risk right in this session. They know that at their level there can be big swing in the final score of any given set, even a long one, where one guy wins by a huge amount and that it doesn't necessarily say much about their relative skill levels. Highly doubt Fedor was doing anything else here but playing to the best of his capabilities at that moment.

As for one pocket, I was highly impressed with Fedor's one pocket game, especially considering how new he is to it, but I think it is a bit too soon for him to be trying to match up even with Alex in that game. Fedor should work his way up with some other one pocket opponents first to confirm his one pocket game is really at that level and will consistently hold up before he goes about trying to slay that dragon.
Maybe, but there is a ton more going on behind the scenes than just two guys playing pool. It's a production-- a ppv match-- and you definitely don't wanna know what I think of those "set-ups" lol.
Let's just say that if Alex was asked to play Fedor the same 3-day race in a PRIVATE ROOM with the backers and a few refs, Alex wouldn't do it. And he shouldn't, Fedor would destroy him. Fedor is a beast. Alex never in his career has had the skill/talent Fedor has now at only age 21.
Alex is one of the games biggest gamblers. But times is changing. The new kids can absolutely play-- the skill level has never been this good.
The Lion and his backers need to pay more attention/respect to these new young guns, they're only getting better...
 
Maybe, but there is a ton more going on behind the scenes than just two guys playing pool. It's a production-- a ppv match-- and you definitely don't wanna know what I think of those "set-ups" lol.
Let's just say that if Alex was asked to play Fedor the same 3-day race in a PRIVATE ROOM with the backers and a few refs, Alex wouldn't do it. And he shouldn't, Fedor would destroy him. Fedor is a beast. Alex never in his career has had the skill/talent Fedor has now at only age 21.
Alex is one of the games biggest gamblers. But times is changing. The new kids can absolutely play-- the skill level has never been this good.
The Lion and his backers need to pay more attention/respect to these new young guns, they're only getting better...
So now you are saying there was shenanigans going on with this match that the players were involved in and it was less than legitimate. What evidence are you basing this on? And tin foil hats are not evidence.
 
Maybe, but there is a ton more going on behind the scenes than just two guys playing pool. It's a production-- a ppv match-- and you definitely don't wanna know what I think of those "set-ups" lol.
Let's just say that if Alex was asked to play Fedor the same 3-day race in a PRIVATE ROOM with the backers and a few refs, Alex wouldn't do it. And he shouldn't, Fedor would destroy him. Fedor is a beast. Alex never in his career has had the skill/talent Fedor has now at only age 21.
Alex is one of the games biggest gamblers. But times is changing. The new kids can absolutely play-- the skill level has never been this good.
The Lion and his backers need to pay more attention/respect to these new young guns, they're only getting better...
Thank you... I got an honest chuckle from this :)
 
I think both players gave it their best efforts, without their best results.

But I was surprised that Gorst didn't break and run at a higher rate for Match 2 with the Accu-Rack. He was over 40% in Match 1 using a triangle. His 26% in Match 2 was considerably below what we have seen in some of the similar matches involving SVB, Shaw, Orcollo, and Filler. And it was also quite a bit below what Gorst himself did a year ago against de Luna. Maybe the slightly tighter pockets (4 3/8" corners instead of 4½") played a role, one that also showed up in Gorst's fairly high rate of missed shots. And it seemed that many of Gorst's successful breaks just did not present run-out opportunities. On 12 of his 37 successful breaks, he pushed out or played safe.

Fouls seemed to be significant in Gorst's victory. He ran out immediately after 12 of Pagulayan's 14 fouls, whereas Pagulayan got out immediately after 4 of Gorst's 8 fouls.
 
If a match is on the square I highly doubt Fedor or anybody else is going to be intentionally playing at less than their full speed for that amount of money against a top tier player/gambler of Alex's caliber, backer or not. Fedor is fully aware of what Alex is capable of and if you are intentionally laying down keeping it relatively close there is too much risk of that biting you and Alex ending up winning. Alex is hard enough to beat when giving 100%. Down the stretch of a long set when you have a substantial lead sure, you might start let off the gas, but otherwise what you are going to do is play your best and give yourself the best chance to win because you know what can easily happen if you don't, especially with as big a factor as the break is and how it can suddenly stop working for you at any time with no apparent good reason.

I also highly doubt Alex is going to be highly intimidated if he were to get blown in a single set either so there really isn't even a reason for Fedor to be taking that risk right in this session. They know that at their level there can be big swing in the final score of any given set, even a long one, where one guy wins by a huge amount and that it doesn't necessarily say much about their relative skill levels. Highly doubt Fedor was doing anything else here but playing to the best of his capabilities at that moment.

As for one pocket, I was highly impressed with Fedor's one pocket game, especially considering how new he is to it, but I think it is a bit too soon for him to be trying to match up even with Alex in that game. Fedor should work his way up with some other one pocket opponents first to confirm his one pocket game is really at that level and will consistently hold up before he goes about trying to slay that dragon.
Exactly, I think it's kind of asinine to think that any of these players think they're enough better than these other top players to shave games.
 
Maybe, but there is a ton more going on behind the scenes than just two guys playing pool. It's a production-- a ppv match-- and you definitely don't wanna know what I think of those "set-ups" lol.
Let's just say that if Alex was asked to play Fedor the same 3-day race in a PRIVATE ROOM with the backers and a few refs, Alex wouldn't do it. And he shouldn't, Fedor would destroy him. Fedor is a beast. Alex never in his career has had the skill/talent Fedor has now at only age 21.
Alex is one of the games biggest gamblers. But times is changing. The new kids can absolutely play-- the skill level has never been this good.
The Lion and his backers need to pay more attention/respect to these new young guns, they're only getting better...
IMO I just never saw Alex beating Fedor. He isn't even peaking yet...unlimited potential at this stage. His talent is scary.
 
Gorst's backers hope you feel that way. Fedor didn't show his whole hand lol
Filler still beats him
Shaw...not really that consistent in long races
Shane still has the edge cuz of the break, but the gap is shrinking

Fedor could become the dominant player of the next 10 years. Time will tell.
 
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