The "Million Dollar Article" by Jerry Forsyth

[pt109]

The only thing they didn't take into account is there was one human pool player on this planet that could actually "rise to the occasion"......their odds were accurate, they were calculated by a statistician at SMU University here in Dallas. No one has run 11 straight racks in a professional tournament before Earl did it or after.....so the odds are correct.

No one else in the history of the sport could have done what Earl did on that day......it was "almost" impossible....of course my definition of "impossible" changed from that day forward.....now I know for sure anything's possible....and it is, - "where there's a will, there's always a way"......and such is life.

This subject has come up before ....I think the odds are incorrect.
I've said that the insurance company should've fired their statistician.
The odds of running a ten-pack change greatly when a large prize is put up.
In a normal competitive situation, every shot the first decision is whether
to go for it or play safe.....for a million$, the safety option disappears.
Therefore, more racks are gonna get run.

I DO think that it took a lot of heart to run them, and it takes a purist
like Earl, whose passion for the game exceeds monetary considerations,
to do the job.
A lot of player's heart would have exploded in the last three racks.

And kudos to you, CJ, for being stand-up for Earl all the way.

 

[AtLarge]

... Remember, Earl did it on triple shimmed pockets on a Gold Crown table. It's the same one I have in my house, although I made the pockets slightly larger when I re did the rails.

My pockets are still under 4.5 at the opening and go back to just over 4" at the back of the pocket......they are extremely tight, you can ask anyone that I give private lessons to.

A pocket mouth of 4.5" or a little less and a throat of just over 4" does not mean the pocket is extremely tight. Please take a ruler or tape measure and actually measure (carefully) the mouth, the throat, and the shelf on the corner pockets of that table (check more than one pocket to see if they are all the same). Then you can calculate the Table Difficulty Factor as explained in the first post of this thread: http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=324408.

Your claim quoted above that "I made the pockets slightly larger when I re did the rails" is the first time I've read that. You didn't say that in prior discussions about Earl's feat and that table, nor did you mention it last year when you tried to sell the table. With a table of that historical significance, why in the world would you change the pocket specs?

 

[Siz]

This subject has come up before ....I think the odds are incorrect.
I've said that the insurance company should've fired their statistician.
....

The odds certainly look wrong. As you have said, putting such a large prize on offer changes behavior. And as Sloppy Pockets pointed out, the relevant probability is the chance of a player doing it in a match divided by the number of matches. What's more, using the 0.2^10 formula would only be correct if each B&R is an independent event, which is way off (because so much is skill rather than luck, getting 'on a roll' is a huge factor). And if that was not enough, using 0.2 figure derived from the average number of B&Rs in a tournament cannot be right for a 'tail' event like this.

If after the tournament a statistician was asked the wrong question (or his/her answer misunderstood) then I can understand how a 8m-1 figure could have come out. But I find it very difficult to believe that a competent underwriter could have signed off on insurance based on this number.

But the best response on this was from Earl, quoted by CJ earlier but worth repeating imho.

"The odds of that happening are about 7.8 million to 1. Strickland later said that's about how many racks he's shot since he ran 10 in a row once before, 16 years ago."

:rotflmao: Can't criticize his work ethic!

But a huge achievement by Earl - and some great stories. Thanks for starting this thread, CJ.

 

[Mikjary]

I think we can bump up the odds by adding in the luck factor of making a ball on the break for ten (11) racks in a row. And what about getting a shot at the one ball each time? The stars have to align for this to happen.

Best,
Mike

 

[Sloppy Pockets]

But the best response on this was from Earl, quoted by CJ earlier but worth repeating imho.

"The odds of that happening are about 7.8 million to 1. Strickland later said that's about how many racks he's shot since he ran 10 in a row once before, 16 years ago."

:rotflmao: Can't criticize his work ethic!

Wow! That's a lot of racks!!!

Let's see...

7,800,000 racks divided by 16 years = 487,500 racks a year, divided by 365 days = 1336 per day, divided by 16 hours (I'll assume he needed 8 hours to eat, sleep, shit, shower, and shave each day) = 83 racks per hour, divided by 60 minutes = 43 seconds per completed rack of 9-ball... including racking and breaking. Forget hitting a million balls, that's hitting 70 million balls (assuming he never missed or had to play safe).

That doesn't include all of his travel time, time waiting between matches, time waiting for his opponents' turns at the table, time spent golfing, time spent.......

The problem with this whole deal is the need to use hyperbolic statements to add to the perceived magnitude of the event. If this crap appears in the actual documentary, it will bring the credibility of the film down to the level of a Michael Moore movie in the eyes of any thinking viewers. How that will be "good for pool" I haven't a clue.

 

[Sloppy Pockets]

I think we can bump up the odds by adding in the luck factor of making a ball on the break for ten (11) racks in a row. And what about getting a shot at the one ball each time? The stars have to align for this to happen.

Best,
Mike

No, that's all part of the statistical chances of breaking and running any single rack. After all, making a ball on the break and getting a clear shot on the next ball in rotation usually leads to a runout when players of this caliber are in dead punch.

On the last day of the 2012 U.S. Open 9-Ball, Shane made the wing ball 23 out of 23 times. He scratched twice, so running a 10-pack was not possible, but his break was certainly dialed in to the max.

 

[CJ Wiley]

Jerry said in the article the table's pockets were extremely tight for the tournament

A pocket mouth of 4.5" or a little less and a throat of just over 4" does not mean the pocket is extremely tight. Please take a ruler or tape measure and actually measure (carefully) the mouth, the throat, and the shelf on the corner pockets of that table (check more than one pocket to see if they are all the same). Then you can calculate the Table Difficulty Factor as explained in the first post of this thread: http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=324408.

Your claim quoted above that "I made the pockets slightly larger when I re did the rails" is the first time I've read that. You didn't say that in prior discussions about Earl's feat and that table, nor did you mention it last year when you tried to sell the table. With a table of that historical significance, why in the world would you change the pocket specs?

It was a natural occurrence....the table went for years in my house without play and the rails went soft. Jeff Surrel from Dallas replaced the rails and took out the three shims and replaced them with one. In the process the pockets changed, this was not something I intended to happen, but it was impossible to keep them exactly the same.

As Jerry said in the article the table's pockets were extremely tight for the tournament and we do have the video of Earl running the racks and it's easy to see the pockets on the table are very, very, small.

I decided not to sell the table so that's a non issue.....the highest bid was $3700 and I wouldn't take less than $5000. if anyone wanted the table. I still think it would be a nice "conversation piece" if anyone wanted the table, I've been using it for my private lessons in Ft. Worth, so at least it's still getting a lot of use. 'The Table is the Teacher'

 

[CJ Wiley]

.it's way, way, way, way out of anyone's "comfort zone".

I think we can bump up the odds by adding in the luck factor of making a ball on the break for ten (11) racks in a row. And what about getting a shot at the one ball each time? The stars have to align for this to happen.

Best,
Mike

What really "ups the odds" is the million dollar prize. Let's face it, any player other than Earl would have fainted on 8. LMAO!!! I don't believe any player can honestly state (under a lie detector test) they could stand up to that kind of pressure.....it's way, way, way, way out of anyone's "comfort zone".

Even Earl says in the documentary interview that he had to use a special bridge that Jimmy Rempe showed him to make that combination (his hands were't exactly "rock solid") and no one on the face of this earth would have wanted to shoot this particular combination......Earl said it was a 50/50% shot, and under the circumstances I'm sure it was lower....and for most players it was impossible!!! 'The Pressure is the Teacher'

 

[CJ Wiley]

This was, without a doubt the most unusual thing to ever happen in pool

This subject has come up before ....I think the odds are incorrect.
I've said that the insurance company should've fired their statistician.
The odds of running a ten-pack change greatly when a large prize is put up.
In a normal competitive situation, every shot the first decision is whether
to go for it or play safe.....for a million$, the safety option disappears.
Therefore, more racks are gonna get run.

I DO think that it took a lot of heart to run them, and it takes a purist
like Earl, whose passion for the game exceeds monetary considerations,
to do the job.
A lot of player's heart would have exploded in the last three racks.

And kudos to you, CJ, for being stand-up for Earl all the way.

That "stand-up" phase was very painful in many ways, not just the money. I was under a confidentiality agreement so when people started attacking the situation and making all kinds of silly claims I couldn't defend the situation or correct the false accusations.

There's much more than just the insurance odds, and of course that's why we felt the need to make the documentary.....no one knows what really happened so all there's been is a bunch of incorrect guesses through the years.

I apologize for not telling the real story on this forum, it's much better on video actually coming directly from guys like Jay Helfert, Max Eberle, Ben Tubbs, Otis Thompson, me, and of course Earl himself. Earl gave us a incredible two hour interview on how he prepared for this feat and what was going on in his mind from start to finish.

This was, without a doubt the most unusual thing to ever happen in pool considering the money involved, the player involved and all the "other" things that became involved.

I wasn't sure if I believed in Miracles until I went though the "Million Dollar Challenge".

 

[Siz]

What really "ups the odds" is the million dollar prize. Let's face it, any player other than Earl would have fainted on 8. LMAO!!! I don't believe any player can honestly state (under a lie detector test) they could stand up to that kind of pressure.....it's way, way, way, way out of anyone's "comfort zone".

Even Earl says in the documentary interview that he had to use a special bridge that Jimmy Rempe showed him to make that combination (his hands were't exactly "rock solid") and no one on the face of this earth would have wanted to shoot this particular combination......Earl said it was a 50/50% shot, and under the circumstances I'm sure it was lower....and for most players it was impossible!!! 'The Pressure is the Teacher'

Quite. When all our chatter from the sidelines has evaporated, what remains is one hell of an achievement.

I mean plenty of us have played in situations that were stressful in some way; but can you imagine getting to 6, 7 or 8 B&Rs, knowing that if you keep it going you get $1 million? And nothing if you foul up or something goes wrong?

I guess this is what makes Earl different: he seems to play his best when the adrenaline is really going (even if sometimes he behaves in a way not everyone likes just so he can get it pumping). Not common in a game like pool.

 

[AtLarge]

It was a natural occurrence....the table went for years in my house without play and the rails went soft. Jeff Surrel from Dallas replaced the rails and took out the three shims and replaced them with one. In the process the pockets changed, this was not something I intended to happen, but it was impossible to keep them exactly the same.

As Jerry said in the article the table's pockets were extremely tight for the tournament and we do have the video of Earl running the racks and it's easy to see the pockets on the table are very, very, small.

I decided not to sell the table so that's a non issue.....the highest bid was $3700 and I wouldn't take less than $5000. if anyone wanted the table. I still think it would be a nice "conversation piece" if anyone wanted the table, I've been using it for my private lessons in Ft. Worth, so at least it's still getting a lot of use. 'The Table is the Teacher'

That's a shame that the specs were changed. By the way, taking out three shims and replacing them with one shim does not necessarily mean that the opening is now larger; the replacement cushions themselves may be longer than the old ones. But at least your explanation does mean that the pockets could have been tighter when Earl did his thing (as opposed to the more normal pro cut they appear to be now).

As for selling the table, glad you didn't (although you previously reported having a $9,500 offer). Put it in your new pool room as "The Million Dollar Table" and let it create a lot of conversation among your customers in the coming years.

 

[CJ Wiley]

Jeff Surell (from Dallas) did all the work on the table,

That's a shame that the specs were changed. By the way, taking out three shims and replacing them with one shim does not necessarily mean that the opening is now larger; the replacement cushions themselves may be longer than the old ones. But at least your explanation does mean that the pockets could have been tighter when Earl did his thing (as opposed to the more normal pro cut they appear to be now).

As for selling the table, glad you didn't (although you previously reported having a $9,500 offer). Put it in your new pool room as "The Million Dollar Table" and let it create a lot of conversation among your customers in the coming years.

The pocket size is what it is.....arguing this point is boring, they are between 4" and 4.5" - although they seem as tight as ever, and with the new rails and shims I like it better. That's just me of course, I'm sure there's differences of opinions.....and such is life.

Jeff Surell (from Dallas) did all the work on the table, he would know exactly what happened ....I don't know much about table mechanic stuff, I just know when tables play well, and this one plays better than most in the country. imho

 

[TX Poolnut]

Wow! That's a lot of racks!!!

Let's see...

7,800,000 racks divided by 16 years = 487,500 racks a year, divided by 365 days = 1336 per day, divided by 16 hours (I'll assume he needed 8 hours to eat, sleep, shit, shower, and shave each day) = 83 racks per hour, divided by 60 minutes = 43 seconds per completed rack of 9-ball... including racking and breaking. Forget hitting a million balls, that's hitting 70 million balls (assuming he never missed or had to play safe).

That doesn't include all of his travel time, time waiting between matches, time waiting for his opponents' turns at the table, time spent golfing, time spent.......

The problem with this whole deal is the need to use hyperbolic statements to add to the perceived magnitude of the event. If this crap appears in the actual documentary, it will bring the credibility of the film down to the level of a Michael Moore movie in the eyes of any thinking viewers. How that will be "good for pool" I haven't a clue.

I agree. Hyperbole is unneccesary. The feat can stand on it's merits without overexaggerations.

Please excuse my ignorance, but when is this documentary going to be released? When will we be able to see this run?

 

[CJ Wiley]

This "Hyperbole" as you are calling it is a quote from Earl Strickland

I agree. Hyperbole is unneccesary. The feat can stand on it's merits without overexaggerations.

Please excuse my ignorance, but when is this documentary going to be released? When will we be able to see this run?

This "Hyperbole" as you are calling it is a quote from Earl Strickland in an interview after the feat was accomplished.....a quote, just a quote, nothing more, nothing less.

Their figures show that a professional player will accomplish this feat only once in 7.8 million attempts. A pool player is 8 times fore likely to be struck dead by lightening than to run ten consecutive racks. Betcha Earl goes inside when it rains.

To further expound the difficulty of this, consider that it was accomplished on nine foot Brunswick Gold Crown tables with incredibly tight pockets. Two object balls could not make it past the nose of any corner pocket, and the angle of the side pockets were nearly non-existent. Indeed, it appeared that the side pockets projected almost straight out into the plane of the table.

 

[TX Poolnut]

This "Hyperbole" as you are calling it is a quote from Earl Strickland in an interview after the feat was accomplished.....a quote, just a quote, nothing more, nothing less.

I didn't call that quote from Earl Strickland hyperbole. Please don't try to put words in my mouth. You will fail everytime friend. As far as I know, Mr. Strickland has never used hyperbole to describe his accomplishment, but you have.

All I'm saying is that the accomplishment will stand on it's outstanding merit. Hyperbole is better used in love songs. :wink:

 

[markgw]

Hey, I'm not trying to diminish Earl's accomplishment in any way. He's my favorite player of all time, and it's largely because of his mind-boggling ability to focus when others might melt in the face of such pressure. All I'm saying is the actual odds of what occurred happening again in the same circumstances are easy enough for any college level statistics student to figure, and they ain't 8 million to one. Especially for Earl in his prime.

Now, lock SVB up in his basement and tell him he can't come out until he B&Rs 10 racks in a row and tell him there a million clams waiting for him when he does, and I'll bet you'll be unlocking the door before the week is out.

But that wouldn't be under the heat of professional tournament conditions. I'm sure the tournament atmosphere was factored in their calculation. Locking someone in their basement on a home table with no outside pressure or distraction would be a complete differen't set of circumstances, which I am sure would increase the odds....Earl did this in a professional tournament stop with a million dollars hanging in the balance. The pressure of shooting that combination on the case 9 the length of the table that was a foot from the pocket, is something I doubt any pro could handle, but him.

 

[CJ Wiley]

it would not effect Earl's accomplishment.

I didn't call that quote from Earl Strickland hyperbole. Please don't try to put words in my mouth. You will fail everytime friend. As far as I know, Mr. Strickland has never used hyperbole to describe his accomplishment, but you have.

All I'm saying is that the accomplishment will stand on it's outstanding merit. Hyperbole is better used in love songs. :wink:

Hyperbole is not to be taken literally, so it would not effect Earl's accomplishment.

Hyperbole (/haɪˈpɜrbəliː/ hy-pur-bə-lee;[1] Greek: ὑπερβολή hyperbolē, "exaggeration") is the use of exaggeration as a rhetorical device or figure of speech. It may be used to evoke strong feelings or to create a strong impression, but is not meant to be taken literally.[2]

 

[CJ Wiley]

Agreed! Tournament conditions like we had set up were very challenging.

But that wouldn't be under the heat of professional tournament conditions. I'm sure the tournament atmosphere was factored in their calculation. Locking someone in their basement on a home table with no outside pressure or distraction would be a complete differen't set of circumstances, which I am sure would increase the odds....Earl did this in a professional tournament stop with a million dollars hanging in the balance. The pressure of shooting that combination on the case 9 the length of the table that was a foot from the pocket, is something I doubt any pro could handle, but him.

Agreed! Tournament conditions like we had set up were very challenging.

I've talked to a number of pros and have them on camera saying they would not be able to make that last combination. I know what it's like to play under immense pressure, but this was "off the charts" - one shot for a million is enough to make anyone fold.....except for Earl Strickland, and the only reason I can say that is he did it....and I still have trouble believing it and I was there.....talk about surreal .....amazing is more like it.

 

[pt109]

This "Hyperbole" as you are calling it is a quote from Earl Strickland in an interview after the feat was accomplished.....a quote, just a quote, nothing more, nothing less.

Look.......I must've told you pool players a billion times....
....Stop using hyperbole!!!!

 

[TX Poolnut]

Hyperbole is not to be taken literally, so it would not effect Earl's accomplishment.

Hyperbole (/haɪˈpɜrbəliː/ hy-pur-bə-lee;[1] Greek: ὑπερβολή hyperbolē, "exaggeration") is the use of exaggeration as a rhetorical device or figure of speech. It may be used to evoke strong feelings or to create a strong impression, but is not meant to be taken literally.[2]

Thanks for the attempt at clarity. Do you think I don't know what the word means? I appreciate it anyway. lol

I understand that you're trying to generate sales. I completely understand. And I don't mean to derail your momentum. If the trope you prefer to use is hyperbole, by all means, knock yourself out. My only suggestion was that it cheapens your descriptions by not being genuine in your descriptions. You were there. You witnessed it. Telling the world it was the greatest thing since sliced bread (figuratively speaking) does nothing to describe what you actually witnessed. It just makes people roll their eyes.

So when is this thing coming to fruition? I'm ready with my credit card.