U.S. interest in billiards drops 30% in 4 years...

[Runnin8]

Look, I understand you're all geeked out because you're an engineer and you found a new toy to produce numbers. I can appreciate that. But my original point was that the word BILLIARDS is an invalid starting point for your survey, because that word is not the most commonly used word to define our sport.

You're building sandcastles here.

(and your caveat was not in the headline.)

If my supposition is correct it will be supported by a similar drop in related terms- those that even you could agree are a valid starting point- like "pool cue." Here are the results for "pool cue" over the same period. Bottom line- same result.

I take "geeked out" as a compliment.

 

[DukeOfAim]

Look, I understand you're all geeked out because you're an engineer and you found a new toy to produce numbers. I can appreciate that. But my original point was that the word BILLIARDS is an invalid starting point for your survey, because that word is not the most commonly used word to define our sport.

You're building sandcastles here.

(and your caveat was not in the headline.)

I love how some people look at the word "engineer" and think geeked out. Why, because the guy went to college and can not only say differential equations, but can also use them? K, sorry had to say something about that.

Anyway, your point is flawed. Whether "billiard" is the most common term used to define our sport or not, it's safe to assume that when people search for something on google a certain percentage will search for the word "pool" (and most likely when the realize that they will never get the results that they are looking for, they alter their search to something like, oh I dunno, billiard:grin: ) and a certain percentage will enter the word billiard. These percentages won't be exact (as nothing is in statistics), but overall would be close enough to get proper results.

My point being, that even if only 1 out 10 people (on average) that are searching for some pool related information uses the word billiard, that still gives you an accurate account of what the overall trend is. It may not be perfect, but nothing ever is with these kinds of statistics. The trend could just be some strange fluke that really doesn't indicate the true direction of pool. But it's a pretty useful tool to help in making any decisions about where to invest your money. I certainly wouldn't bet against it, even if I didn't play this game and didn't already see the downward trend with my own eyes.

Hope all of that made sense...if not I can always edit I suppose.

 

[worldison2]

I take "geeked out" as a compliment.

Cool. It wasn't meant as an insult. I figured a real engineer might appreciate it.

I also didn't thank you for showing us this tool. It's fun to plug in certain words and see what happens. I tried things like OBAMA, Britney Spears, Global Warming, and a few others. It's pretty cool, but more in a "gee whiz" sort of way. I don't know If I'd base any significant conclusions on it.

I'm a pretty skeptical guy when people start throwing numbers around. I really didn't plan to step on your toes, so if I came across that way, I apologize.

Thanks again

 

[Runnin8]

Cool. It wasn't meant as an insult. I figured a real engineer might appreciate it.

I also didn't thank you for showing us this tool. It's fun to plug in certain words and see what happens. I tried things like OBAMA, Britney Spears, Global Warming, and a few others. It's pretty cool, but more in a "gee whiz" sort of way. I don't know If I'd base any significant conclusions on it.

I'm a pretty skeptical guy when people start throwing numbers around. I really didn't plan to step on your toes, so if I came across that way, I apologize.

Thanks again

Absolutely nothing wrong with being skeptical about how people use numbers! I am as a general rule.

I was having fun and didn't feel like you were stepping on my toes at all- I enjoy good discussion over data. I took no offense whatsoever and your approach is the most effective in dismantling conclusions- start with the assumptions!

I would also call it a "gee whiz" tool, but one that can be used to pretty good effect if you understand its limitations. Of course, the real power lies in the actual volumes of data that Google has collected over the years. I anticipate that they will release a "subscriber" version of this tool that is more detailed and can evaluate data at better granularity. Its the same data they use to provide targetted advertising to your side bar as you search.

Later,
Steve

 

[Fatboy]

i didnt read the above posts, i'm too sleepy now, but a thought came to mind:


the drop off is billiard people who use google which is a subset of all billiard users, and we dont know how many billiard users or pool players use the internet, it could also be that the internet traffic going to billiard sites is down because of other reasons, not the dis-interest in billiards but distractions like prettygirls.com

 

[softshot]

Pool is fine.. google hits don't show you the real story...

if you had a way to record every time someone dropped 4 quarters into a barbox. and graphed those results you might have some useful data..

the seasonal trend is completely obvious to me league seasons runs from fall till spring.... there are summer leagues but they are not as popular.. there is a lot more stuff to do in the summer.. I didn't need google hits to tell me that.

also .. I have googled for billiards and pool quite a few times... until I found all the worthwhile sites..and bookmarked them...now I get to the sites without google as an intermediary.. I gave them a few hits a few years ago.. now my pool interest is no longer recorded by them. because I don't use them to find my information.

I know for a fact I am not the only one who gets to these forums from my own bookmark... how many of you google "azbilliards forums" everyday to find this site?

I think in more years that data might be usefull.. once everyone who wants an azbilliards bookmark gets one. then the data could be usefull to chart new growth.. but it will never be a good indicator of the overall popularity of pool.


Edited to add:

this google tool can never be a truely reliable source of information. any one of the millions of computer programmers in the world could alter those results dramatically. it doesn't take much work to make a search bot that googles the word billiards repeatedly a million times a day..

 

[Craig Fales]

That's an interesting response Craig- not sure where you see the *****ing and moaning. As for pool talk, I merely posted a link to a tool that can provide one measure of interest in pool worldwide, by year, month, and region. The data is what it is and as far as I know the google tool is unique in that regard.

Later,
Steve

That wasn't directed at you. I was referring to alot of the other theatrics going on here...

 

[mosconiac]

It's is interesting to see the cyclical nature of the hit rate. I presume the peaks correspond to the winter spike (in participation) and the valleys correspond to summer duldrums (my local PH is pretty empty right now).

As far as drawing a conclusion that interest is down 30%, it would be more fair to compare corresponding times of the year, not the peak of winter to the valley of summer. Otherwise, you are manipulating the data for the matter of drama.

 

[Ed Simmons]

It's is interesting to see the cyclical nature of the hit rate. I presume the peaks correspond to the winter spike (in participation) and the valleys correspond to summer duldrums (my local PH is pretty empty right now).

As far as drawing a conclusion that interest is down 30%, it would be more fair to compare corresponding times of the year, not the peak of winter to the valley of summer. Otherwise, you are manipulating the data for the matter of drama.

Good point! It's funny how we all see the numbers differently. I also noticed the yearly peaks occurred near the end of each year, but I attributed it to people doing searches for Christmas Shopping (The greatest economic force known to American mankind).

Maybe the 30% drop in the 4 years is proof that not as many people use google as they used to. I'll leave that up to the "experts".

 

[Runnin8]

Guys, thanks for all the good discussion.

This one thread is an interesting experience of how people can look at the same data, and read the same words, and come away with entirely different conclusions. The data that the tool provides is not the entire story and I would never pretend it was. If the google search volume is an accurate indicator the data is meaningful- if not, then discard it. Perhaps some industry folks who have been looking at this can come in with other sources of data that also tell part of the story.

The data is what it is- don't take it at face value, research the methodology, understand its limitations, and validate the data with other sources before true conclusions can be drawn. And as mosconiac points out- don't manipulate the data for effect. (In this case, comparing peaks year to year, or valleys year to year both tell the same story. If I went peak to valley the number is more like 60%)

The explanation of why the data is the way it is presents a much tougher problem and really requires people that understand the industry. Are fewer folks googling- maybe, but unlikely. But even beyond that- are the "googling" trends of folks that bowl likely to be different than the "googling" trends of pool players? "Bowling" does not show the same decrease. Why? I don't know. Explore Jim Collins' book "Good to Great" to see great examples of trend analysis.

At the end of the day, for me, its a neat tool to play with and see whether chocolate, vanilla, or strawberry are the favorite shake (chocolate btw).

Play with it, enjoy it, and if it sparks some good conversation all the better.

Peace,
Steve

 

[FLICKit]

I think you're all missing the real key point to this....

Billiard and Pool google searches have gone down because of AZ Billiards. Why do you have to do a google search when you know you can come to AZ Billiards? It's the success of AZ Billiards that is causing the reduction in searches. The true dedicated pool fans with internet access come here.

If there's anything else you need, you just read the appropriate thread or else click on the appropriate sponsor link.

Google needs to update their pool related searches to include searches conducted at the AZ Billiards site. Even then, they'd still miss the ones where people know exactly which thread to go look in.

 

[1pocket]

I tried "one pocket" just for the heck of it. At least it doesn't seem to be in a decline

If you isolate the "one pocket" search on the US, you can see it first shows up in May 2004, coincidently when OnePocket.org launched

google one pocket trends

Incidentally, Mike Shamos has several times graphed the appearance of "billiards" in NY Times articles, going back many years. I think he just did this recently in fact...

 

[Beware_of_Dawg]

blah, blah friggin blah.

I dont care. I love pool, I play pool. my friends love pool, they play pool.

as for the rest of the country, or even the world. funk 'em.

I'm going to hit some balls... anyone wants to join me, I'm in Tampa. PM me, I'll be happy to meet anyone that wants to play.

~D4\/\/G~

and sorry, not to be negative to yer thread, I just get sick of hearing about how "horrible" times are for pool... in my heart, and my life... pool is happy and healthy.

 

[DukeOfAim]

Maybe a graph of "10 Ball" will make everyone feel better about the state of pool in the US!:thumbup:

 

[Jude Rosenstock]

Okay, the very first thing I would like to see is a breakout of where these people are going after they search enter the keyword, "billiards". My guess is that the trend is indicative of interest in purchasing pooltables which usually runs parallel with the economy (as do most luxury purchases). If there's another economic boom, I'm sure people will be looking to buy again. So, if my assumption is correct, words like "Porsche" or "Rolex" may be down but home-improvement words will likely be up.

 

[hang-the-9]

The word billiards is not what most people use to refer to our sport. It's pool. But pool is not a unique word for our sport. You can also have a swimming pool.

Bowling is a unique word that refers to that sport. So is golf.

I don't think you can use the word billiards to draw any conclusions. Contrary to your headline, the sky is not falling.

The sky has been falling, have you seen the post on the RSP league that gets as much money as a top level pool tournament. Of the fact that every pool association that has tried to organize the pros has failed.

Have you also seen all the pool rooms closing? Lets take away the pool rooms that are really bars with tables people can bang on, I am talking a room made for players. The one room around me that opened with grand ideas, had high-end custom cues around the walls, nice house sticks, great playing tables, and a nice restaurant (which I'm sure was their main business. In a couple of years they moved out half the tables, the tables that are there have not been cleaned in months, neither have the balls or sticks. Not much interest in the game.

 

[hang-the-9]

blah, blah friggin blah.

I dont care. I love pool, I play pool. my friends love pool, they play pool.

as for the rest of the country, or even the world. funk 'em.

I'm going to hit some balls... anyone wants to join me, I'm in Tampa. PM me, I'll be happy to meet anyone that wants to play.

~D4\/\/G~

and sorry, not to be negative to yer thread, I just get sick of hearing about how "horrible" times are for pool... in my heart, and my life... pool is happy and healthy.

That is nice :thumbup: I like that attitude, rep to you.

 

[Jude Rosenstock]

I was just thinking, I mean, this may be obvious, but these statistics are a gross number of Google visitors searching for "Billiards". What's Google traffic doing, out of curiosity?

 

[cigardave]

The data is what it is- don't take it at face value, research the methodology, understand its limitations, and validate the data with other sources before true conclusions can be drawn. And as mosconiac points out- don't manipulate the data for effect.

This discussion reminds me that one of my former engineering supervisors here at Boeing had a favorite saying that has always stuck with me... it's...

Torture the data until it confesses.​

:thumbup:

 

[Runnin8]

I was just thinking, I mean, this may be obvious, but these statistics are a gross number of Google visitors searching for "Billiards". What's Google traffic doing, out of curiosity?

9. Is the data normalized?
All results from Google Trends are normalized, which means that we've divided the sets of data by a common variable to cancel out the variable's effect on the data and allow the underlying characteristics of the data sets to be compared. If we didn't normalize the results, and instead displayed the absolute rankings of cities, they wouldn't be all that interesting ? a densely populated area like New York City would be the top city for many results simply because there are lots of searches from that area.​

So the data is not a gross number, but rather normalized (though the Google folks can certainly recover the gross data). If I were doing the normalizing I'd probably use the total number of searches for any particular day. They don't say what they use to normalize the data, but I'd do it that way. When plotted, all data is scaled so that the mean is one.

So.... data trends are just that- trends, that could be used to compute raw searches if you knew the scale/normalize parameters.


Clear as mud... :sorry: but gotta run.