(Un)Popular Opinion on Fargo Rate

[mnorwood]

I like the Fargo rate because it shatters delusions. At the same time it creates another system to game capped tournaments.

 

[Fatboy]

When Fargo Rate first appeared, my initial internal reaction was something like, “This is super. Over time, Fargo Rate will allow me and others to better understand nuanced grades of skill in players, including where I fit into the pecking order…even if it’s way down the line.”

Right now, I view FargoRate as an almost perfect assassin for much of the joy I used to find in pool.

The accuracy with which FargoRate grades the skill of players is shocking…to me. Maybe everyone else knew this was going to happen and they don’t care, and I am late to my own observation.

When a tournament starts, the list of guys who will play at the end is fairly small. Even though players like Jesus Astencio, Tyler Styer, and John Morra are ridiculously talented compared to 99.9% of pool players, in a tournament that is well attended by players on the top 100 list, we now understand that they are “dead money” or almost "dead money" to win the event. There is no one who wants this last statement to be 100% wrong more than me. However, when one scans the banners at the DCC, the pictures are dominated by very few players and there is an outsized representation of Efren, SVB, and Fedor.

Prior to FargoRate, a player’s standing in the pecking order of skill was more of a mystery. In addition, I think it I think it was less clear how much a player’s special expertise in a game contributed to a win or a loss prior to FargoRate. For example, prior to FargoRate, if a “Eurobot” player drew “Established Pro One Pocket Specialist”, this might be viewed as an interesting match-up.

Now, provided the “Eurobot” player has even a rudimentary understanding of One-Pocket and a sufficiently high advantage in FargoRate, it’s clear that (in many instances) the match is over before it starts in favor of “Eurobot”.

Finally, I think FargoRate makes clear that perhaps the most important part of becoming a world class player, is time at the table competing against other world class players. If you look at what countries occupy the top 100 Fargo Rates in the world, what jumps out to me is the percentage of players who come from locations where there is a custom to regularly compete (Philippines, Poland, Taiwan, China).

If you thought you could practice your way to greatness in the basement prior to FargoRate (I realize this might have always been a minority opinion), FargoRate has destroyed that misapprehension.

I am under no illusions. The FargoRate genie will not go back into its bottle, but sometimes it makes sense (to me) to notice the good and the bad.

I think the answer is finding new ways to enjoy pool in a new environment. For example, I may consider becoming a tournament director for tournaments capped at 590, where all the matches will be streamed, for free, with commentary from players whose skill level does not exceed 590, where the entry fee will be $1500.00 and the Calcutta will last 9 days, creating a purse of 3 million dollars. Obviously, the tournament will take place on bar tables with 3-inch pockets—we can’t have balls go that shouldn’t. Since the tournament is single elimination, there will be a second chance poker event. I promise to run my events as slowly as possible. Hopefully, no one is able to sleep.

The dress code for my events will be called, "Homeless Adjacent". We will encourage sports jerseys and pajamas. We will ban collared shirts as those are associated with "nits", but we will definitely not enforce this rule, because the best rules are meant to be ignored. Clearly, bathing is optional, and all disputes will be settled with loud shouting matches.

I resolve to embrace the future.

kollegedave

From your lips to Gods ears-you are right. And it’s not just in pool. Look at chess and backgammon. Same thing different games.

In today’s world everything seems to be a number. Way too much data for me. A data driven world where people are using data to build an edge. That won’t change.

Fatboy<———ain’t rated

 

[Fatboy]

Good post.

I believe you are correct in your assessment of FR — you can look at the numbers and know if you are likely to prevail or are a dead duck.

But, to be honest, FR just validates something many new: the cream always rises to the top and most guys are just playing for S&Gs, though I’m not so sure I agree with the EuroBot v 1pocket specialist assessment (I think if it's at all close a 1pocket guy can still grind it out).

Lastly, yes, you’ve got to be out there at the highest levels, playing all over the world if you want to stay in any conversation relating to the elites. Regrettably, many American players will not and or cannot strap-on this kind of time and expense. And so we are seeing exactly what you suggest: tournament play limited to certain parameters. And depending on your FR, this can be a good thing or a bad thing, but increasingly it is the future of tournament play in this country.

As to the dress code… no matter what we will continue to see idiots wearing shorts and Crocs in 20 degree weather, lol.

Lou Figueroa

The bots are starting to keep up with the specialists.

The data said that the breaker won 51% of the racks in 1P this year at derby. Atlarges data here on AZB , while it’s a small sample of data it’s kinda weird that the break doesn’t seem to matter now in 1P. 20 years ago who’d have imagined that?

What happens when the break becomes a disadvantage in 1P, it’s close now……yikes things are different.

I’d like to think the specialists have an edge, but the bots and milk drinkers are strong.

Hope you had a good derby Lou

Fatboy

 

[InsertCleverNameHere]

The bots are starting to keep up with the specialists.

The data said that the breaker won 51% of the racks in 1P this year at derby. Atlarges data here on AZB , while it’s a small sample of data it’s kinda weird that the break doesn’t seem to matter now in 1P. 20 years ago who’d have imagined that?

What happens when the break becomes a disadvantage in 1P, it’s close now……yikes things are different.

I’d like to think the specialists have an edge, but the bots and milk drinkers are strong.

Hope you had a good derby Lou

Fatboy

I'm just guessing but Those numbers are probably only on the feature table? That table is so slick and the balls are always extra clean. Break isn't nearly the same advantage in those conditions.

 

[skogstokig]

i tend to think it has more to do with the evolution of one pocket than any european players or elite rotation players playing it. those old truths about the break being worth 1.5 - 2 balls predates alex, frost, chohan. if you look at the post-break shot selection now vs before there's a big difference. the going off the high side rail ball, drawing down towards the breakers pocket, that used to be a standard 1p shot, you don't see that much anymore. instead the defender will try to reverse the break totally in his first inning, even if it means sticking to his side of the pile. and they're very good at achieving it.

that evolution has nothing to do with elite rotation players playing one pocket once a year. efren, and then frost, alex, chohan made the game much more aggressive. the top rotation players are very good at running 8 when they get a chance, but they didn't change the game.

51% is probably extreme. but the break is turned much more often now.

 

[Fatboy]

I'm just guessing but Those numbers are probably only on the feature table? That table is so slick and the balls are always extra clean. Break isn't nearly the same advantage in those conditions.

Yes that was my understanding feature table, not every match. There’s a very recent thread with all the data. This number stood out to me. I’m not basing my thoughts on just this. However 51% player breaking wins on any table is still pretty interesting.

Best
Fatboy

 

[Mensabum]

C

Good post.

I believe you are correct in your assessment of FR — you can look at the numbers and know if you are likely to prevail or are a dead duck.

But, to be honest, FR just validates something many new: the cream always rises to the top and most guys are just playing for S&Gs, though I’m not so sure I agree with the EuroBot v 1pocket specialist assessment (I think if it's at all close a 1pocket guy can still grind it out).

Lastly, yes, you’ve got to be out there at the highest levels, playing all over the world if you want to stay in any conversation relating to the elites. Regrettably, many American players will not and or cannot strap-on this kind of time and expense. And so we are seeing exactly what you suggest: tournament play limited to certain parameters. And depending on your FR, this can be a good thing or a bad thing, but increasingly it is the future of tournament play in this country.

As to the dress code… no matter what we will continue to see idiots wearing shorts and Crocs in 20 degree weather, lol.

Lou Figueroa

Can't help it. Mom dresses me funny.

 

[kollegedave]

The bots are starting to keep up with the specialists.

The data said that the breaker won 51% of the racks in 1P this year at derby. Atlarges data here on AZB , while it’s a small sample of data it’s kinda weird that the break doesn’t seem to matter now in 1P. 20 years ago who’d have imagined that?

What happens when the break becomes a disadvantage in 1P, it’s close now……yikes things are different.

I’d like to think the specialists have an edge, but the bots and milk drinkers are strong.

Hope you had a good derby Lou

Fatboy

I am not too surprised at this. If someone breaks bad or sometimes even average, it looks like the non-breaker broke in an inning or two. All one pocket is power one pocket now. Breaks turn around in a blink.

The break is still an advantage...when you break well. Of course, that's easy to say and harder to do.

Just my 0.02

kollegedave

 

[kollegedave]

Good post.

I believe you are correct in your assessment of FR — you can look at the numbers and know if you are likely to prevail or are a dead duck.

But, to be honest, FR just validates something many new: the cream always rises to the top and most guys are just playing for S&Gs, though I’m not so sure I agree with the EuroBot v 1pocket specialist assessment (I think if it's at all close a 1pocket guy can still grind it out).

Lastly, yes, you’ve got to be out there at the highest levels, playing all over the world if you want to stay in any conversation relating to the elites. Regrettably, many American players will not and or cannot strap-on this kind of time and expense. And so we are seeing exactly what you suggest: tournament play limited to certain parameters. And depending on your FR, this can be a good thing or a bad thing, but increasingly it is the future of tournament play in this country.

As to the dress code… no matter what we will continue to see idiots wearing shorts and Crocs in 20 degree weather, lol.

Lou Figueroa

Thanks Lou.

I don't disagree that the cream always rises to the top, but I am not sure that before FargoRate people understood how concentrated the cream is. At least I didn't, and I think I prefer the mystery.

kollegedave

 

[CocoboloCowboy]

First question we should ask who benefit from ANY HANDICAPPING SYSTEM. Follow the money. Who runs Fargo, and how much MONEY is going into their pockets?


A Good player who use to play in the local tournament in AZ put it this way, the better I got, the more money I won, the more I placed in or won tournaments the less tournaments I got to play in because of my skill had increased. So did my Handicap Number. going high for being better. all this work to get screwed out of playing in the majority of tournaments.

Bar, & Room Owners were the one doing the rating, move the Number, or Handicap. To keep the Good or Great, ore Shot Stop level players from winning all the time. Or just keep them out of the majority of tournaments.

The Bar & Room Owner want to cater to the people or player who were spenders of money, Alcohol payed the bill, not quarter in a bar box, or green fee.

If Fargo is such a great system when do they not use Fargo at DCC, or US Open or the other Big Tournament? To help the Banger beat the Pro with Huge Handicaps.?

 

[King T]

When a tournament starts, the list of guys who will play at the end is fairly small. Even though players like Jesus Astencio, Tyler Styer, and John Morra are ridiculously talented compared to 99.9% of pool players, in a tournament that is well attended by players on the top 100 list, we now understand that they are “dead money” or almost "dead money" to win the event.

I get your point, but these guys are very young and do have the ability to improve? And when you say a small list who can win would it be fair to say that 60 of the top 100 could win on any given day?

 

[jtompilot]

I thought I’d like FR but I don’t. Seems like there’s still professional sandbaggers. They crawl out from under when the tournament money gets sky high.

 

[alphadog]

I get your point, but these guys are very young and do have the ability to improve? And when you say a small list who can win would it be fair to say that 60 of the top 100 could win on any given day?

It's possible but not likely.
The lower rated player has to out perform too many times to make it thru.

 

[garczar]

Playing people a lot better than you generally teaches you how to handle losing. You need to work up the ladder of difficulty imo. Comp. should be tough but with a reasonable chance of winning. Getting you're brains beat in all the time doesn't teach you much.

 

[kollegedave]

I get your point, but these guys are very young and do have the ability to improve? And when you say a small list who can win would it be fair to say that 60 of the top 100 could win on any given day?

I mean this is a matter of degrees and opinion, but...

Dennis Grabe is number 58 with a FargoRate of 801 (astronomically high). What are his chances of winning in a field comprised of Fedor, SVB, CJL, FSR, the Ko's, Albin, and a smattering of Filipinos?

I guess he might win a match or two if SVB would rather be fishing?

It is hard for me to believe he has a real chance of winning this hypothetical event.

kollegedave

 

[briankenobi]

First question we should ask who benefit from ANY HANDICAPPING SYSTEM. Follow the money. Who runs Fargo, and how much MONEY is going into their pockets?


A Good player who use to play in the local tournament in AZ put it this way, the better I got, the more money I won, the more I placed in or won tournaments the less tournaments I got to play in because of my skill had increased. So did my Handicap Number. going high for being better. all this work to get screwed out of playing in the majority of tournaments.

Bar, & Room Owners were the one doing the rating, move the Number, or Handicap. To keep the Good or Great, ore Shot Stop level players from winning all the time. Or just keep them out of the majority of tournaments.

The Bar & Room Owner want to cater to the people or player who were spenders of money, Alcohol payed the bill, not quarter in a bar box, or green fee.

If Fargo is such a great system when do they not use Fargo at DCC, or US Open or the other Big Tournament? To help the Banger beat the Pro with Huge Handicaps.?

Fargo isn't used at DCC or US Open because those tournaments are open to anyone and even. Play at your own peril. lol

 

[briankenobi]

I thought I’d like FR but I don’t. Seems like there’s still professional sandbaggers. They crawl out from under when the tournament money gets sky high.

They used to be called hustlers.

 

[skogstokig]

I mean this is a matter of degrees and opinion, but...

Dennis Grabe is number 58 with a FargoRate of 801 (astronomically high). What are his chances of winning in a field comprised of Fedor, SVB, CJL, FSR, the Ko's, Albin, and a smattering of Filipinos?

I guess he might win a match or two if SVB would rather be fishing?

It is hard for me to believe he has a real chance of winning this hypothetical event.

kollegedave

form plays a big part at that level. look at soufi, krause, bijsterbosch, capito.. they all made finals in recent times in packed fields, despite being high 700's or just around 800. grabe can and probably has beat most of the names you listed.

 

[FastManners]

I like the Fargo rate because it shatters delusions. At the same time it creates another system to game capped tournaments.

Correction, it should shatter delusions. You still get sub 600 women professing to be pro level and sub 700 men professing the same. You can't cure delusional people.
I personally love Fargo, I think mine is pretty accurate for the level I play at and for people I have seen play who have a decent robustness (1,000+ games). All players will have fluctuations in form and will appear better or worse than their Fargo, but the average seems pretty accurate.

 

[kollegedave]

form plays a big part at that level. look at soufi, krause, bijsterbosch, capito.. they all made finals in recent times in packed fields, despite being high 700's or just around 800. grabe can and probably has beat most of the names you listed.

I agree that he (or those other names you listed (I think Krause is on the rise though)) can beat any of those names in a single tournament length race. Can he beat ALL those names in successive tournament length races to win the event? My point is that while you might find the occasional outlier race or event here or there, the prevalence of the Gorst v. Filler final is less exciting when I know statistics tells us that's what will happen.

kollegedave