(Un)Popular Opinion on Fargo Rate

[mikepage]

Are the ratings equal for men and women?
Is a 600 woman supposed to be as good as a 600 man?

Yes.

How about different games?
If someone just plays 9ball and he is a 600, is he still a 600 for 14.1 or 8ball?

If he hasn't played much of the other games, it would not be surprising to see him underperform his Fargo Rating.

How about if someone just plays locally and he is a strong player in his region and he is 700, does that holds on the international scale?

Yes.

Handicapping based on Fargo is games difference need to win but doesn’t work for 9ball

I don't understand this.

 

[alphadog]

If you're on a island with only two other players how does anyone get a robustness???

Robustness is simply games played.

 

[jasonlaus]

Thank you for finally providing a real answer. A few clarifications/points:

1) I did not say his range was 780-820. I said "Whether that means he'd be an 820 or a 780 or what I don't know." Please do not put words in my mouth. I was throwing numbers out there and admitting I don't know what the range is, but that I think he would be substantially lower.

2) Using what you've seen with the real-world distribution of established players is exactly my point. Carving up one other player's record into arbitrary 500-game chunks and then saying that would be a good approximation for how far off Ameer could be is not a good way to actually answer the question.

3) My "flip[ing] the reasoning on its head" was quite deliberate--notice the quotes around "analysis"--and was meant to encourage you to actually try to provide correct analysis rather than the hand-wavy and incorrect "John Morra did X and so therefore Ameer is likely Y." So thank you. There is almost no way Ameer is even possibly an 880 player, hence my comment.

4) So thank you for actually plugging the numbers into your statistical software instead of relying on your own lazy analysis. The next thing I was going to ask you was what his actual expected rating was. 838 is still higher than I thought it would be. If anyone wants to make a bet on what his eventual rating is after 3000 games, I'm happy to take the under on 838.

Are you always an ass?

Make your own rating system since you're so smart. I wouldn't answer a single question from your condescending know it all ass

 

[SSP]

After 45 years of playing, I just learned this a few weeks ago. I always try to end a practice session by stroking in a long, difficult shot. I don't know why I do that, I guess I just like leaving the table with that positive image in my head. Well, a few weeks ago I missed that shot and decided to set it up again. I missed it again, and again, and again. FINALLY, I noticed I was missing the same way (to the right of the pocket) and by practically the same amount every time. That lead me to learn I wasn't lining up correctly over the ball so while I thought I was hitting center, I was actually adding left spin (thus deflecting / throwing my shot to the right). I still haven't quite figured out how to correct that yet though.

Ck out finding YOUR vision center Dr Dave billiards

 

[loggerhead12]

If you're on a island with only two other players how does anyone get a robustness???

There's nothing else to do on the island. They play a lot of pool.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Indeed!

This weekend, I played the 537 in 2 races.

Race to 10, 8 ball. I won 10-3
Race to 5, 10 ball: I won 5-4

I went, as a preliminary Fargo, from 433 to 468 with a robustness of 154. The 537 dropped to a 534 (-3) but the most interesting thing was the 505 went to 523 without playing one game.

The island is interesting…

 

[Wayne Crimi]

Lower? Probably
As far lower as 820? More likely no than yes. But perhaps.
As far lower as 780? Quite unlikely we think

One way to think of this is to take someone with a lot of games who is a little under 800 [e.g., John Morra, 794, 22,000 games] and interrogate John's record to see whether his performance for a hot string of 500 games ever pings near 840 or 850. He has 44 of these 500-game chunks, and we might imagine there is one chunk for which he was playing his own A-game, tended to get the rolls, and his opponents tended off their game on average. That's the trifecta of high apparent performance. While John sees 800 about 30% of the time, he never sees 820. 819 (25 above his rating) is as high as it gets.

If Ameer's 500 game chunk that we happened to capture is the equivalent of John Morra's best chunk, that would suggest Ameer's long-term average to be 824 or so. It is more likely he is somewhat above that, though.

It would be really nice if the data was downloadable to a spreadsheet or if there was an inquiry function so we could slice and dice the ratings and track ups/downs, improvement, put more weight on recent games for young players who may be improving rapidly, look at 500 or 1000 game chunks etc.. The ratings are great, but I'd also like to do a subjective analysis.

 

[jay helfert]

I've always been amazed at how accurate the Fargo ratings tend to be in determining a winner.

 

[kollegedave]

I've always been amazed at high accurate the Fargo ratings tend to be in determining a winner.

Thank you for returning the thread towards its original topic.

Personally, I find the accuracy of FargoRate to be something that has taken away some of the things I used to enjoy about pool, because it's so good at predicting the winner.

kollegedave