World 9 Ball and How the Americans Compare!

the Professor

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Just a couple of quick thoughts after watching the streams of the World 9 Ball. While I have had these types of thoughts for a while, I feel more confident in them now after watching the World 9 Ball Tournament.

1. After watching the "best" in the world play at this competition, I am pretty confident that the best players in the United States can hold their own against the rest of the world. In other words, if we had a bigger field of Americans including: Archer, Morris, Mills, Bergman, Hall, Woodward, Duel, Hatch, Oscar, etc……… I think we would be right in the mix with the worlds top competition. So I'm saying, I don't think we are as far behind the world as I believed before watching the international competition. This isn't a slam to the international competitors, but a statement about our players.

2. Its sad that we don't have some type of a system that helps to promote/fund our top players to play international events. I do recognize that getting that type of experience would be beneficial for our players to reach top form because it would put them in challenging situations mentally etc….. at that level the game is much more mental than physical, everybody is better than the table… the question is are you better than your opponent.

3. Finally, I think the lack of funding etc…. is what hinders our players much more than a talent deficit compared to the rest of the world. In other words, there is very little incentive to practice and improve because there is no long term reward in the minds of the players. I remember when the IPT kicked up, it brought a lot of players out of retirement (semi) because it gave them a reason to practice/play.

4. I think there are some good things happening in the United States right now that is getting overlooked a little. For example, I think the reason the Filipino players players have progressed so much is based on their cultural context. In other words, there is a pecking order in their country that drives them to climb to the top (within their country). This creates a situation where people are trying to climb the ladder and knock Dennis or Efren off etc….. This forces the guys at the top to stay sharp and the guys at the bottom something to aspire towards. So, the internal competition is the driver that propels these players to be the best that they can be, hence they have become one of the best pool cultures in the world (if not the best). I think the same thing could be said from the Chinese players etc… I said that to say this… I see this type of culture developing a little in the United States right now and we are slowly starting to see the fruit of that environment. While the US tournaments are fairly small in comparison, their is a culture of internal competition between guys like Bergman, Woodward, McMinn, etc… that is starting to generate the level of challenge it takes for our players to be driven to be better. I think some of these players have their eyes on Shane thinking that they can catch him etc…. This is the mentality that will increase the level of play in the United States.

Just my thoughts!
 
I get your point, but..,

Just a couple of quick thoughts after watching the streams of the World 9 Ball. While I have had these types of thoughts for a while, I feel more confident in them now after watching the World 9 Ball Tournament.

1. After watching the "best" in the world play at this competition, I am pretty confident that the best players in the United States can hold their own against the rest of the world. In other words, if we had a bigger field of Americans including: Archer, Morris, Mills, Bergman, Hall, Woodward, Duel, Hatch, Oscar, etc……… I think we would be right in the mix with the worlds top competition. So I'm saying, I don't think we are as far behind the world as I believed before watching the international competition. This isn't a slam to the international competitors, but a statement about our players.

2. Its sad that we don't have some type of a system that helps to promote/fund our top players to play international events. I do recognize that getting that type of experience would be beneficial for our players to reach top form because it would put them in challenging situations mentally etc….. at that level the game is much more mental than physical, everybody is better than the table… the question is are you better than your opponent.

3. Finally, I think the lack of funding etc…. is what hinders our players much more than a talent deficit compared to the rest of the world. In other words, there is very little incentive to practice and improve because there is no long term reward in the minds of the players. I remember when the IPT kicked up, it brought a lot of players out of retirement (semi) because it gave them a reason to practice/play.

4. I think there are some good things happening in the United States right now that is getting overlooked a little. For example, I think the reason the Filipino players players have progressed so much is based on their cultural context. In other words, there is a pecking order in their country that drives them to climb to the top (within their country). This creates a situation where people are trying to climb the ladder and knock Dennis or Efren off etc….. This forces the guys at the top to stay sharp and the guys at the bottom something to aspire towards. So, the internal competition is the driver that propels these players to be the best that they can be, hence they have become one of the best pool cultures in the world (if not the best). I think the same thing could be said from the Chinese players etc…

Just my thoughts!

I think you make some good points, but remember that many of the players your watching don't come from strong economic environments, yet they excel at the game because they LOVE to play, the LOVE the game.

It seems that everyone wants to talk about the plight of the poor American player and the fact that they cant make any money at the game so theres no need to play hard..., ok then stop playing, find something else to do and we'll wait on the guy who steps up next that just wants to win, for winnings sake.

Many of the best players come from places were they cant make any Money, but this is America and you can make money here. Once your game is at a certain level getting a job wont kill it, working and competing happens in many sports and its time for the players to step it up or except their positions as second class citizens in the Pool world.
 
Just a couple of quick thoughts after watching the streams of the World 9 Ball. While I have had these types of thoughts for a while, I feel more confident in them now after watching the World 9 Ball Tournament.

1. After watching the "best" in the world play at this competition, I am pretty confident that the best players in the United States can hold their own against the rest of the world. In other words, if we had a bigger field of Americans including: Archer, Morris, Mills, Bergman, Hall, Woodward, Duel, Hatch, Oscar, etc……… I think we would be right in the mix with the worlds top competition. So I'm saying, I don't think we are as far behind the world as I believed before watching the international competition. This isn't a slam to the international competitors, but a statement about our players.

2. Its sad that we don't have some type of a system that helps to promote/fund our top players to play international events. I do recognize that getting that type of experience would be beneficial for our players to reach top form because it would put them in challenging situations mentally etc….. at that level the game is much more mental than physical, everybody is better than the table… the question is are you better than your opponent.

3. Finally, I think the lack of funding etc…. is what hinders our players much more than a talent deficit compared to the rest of the world. In other words, there is very little incentive to practice and improve because there is no long term reward in the minds of the players. I remember when the IPT kicked up, it brought a lot of players out of retirement (semi) because it gave them a reason to practice/play.

4. I think there are some good things happening in the United States right now that is getting overlooked a little. For example, I think the reason the Filipino players players have progressed so much is based on their cultural context. In other words, there is a pecking order in their country that drives them to climb to the top (within their country). This creates a situation where people are trying to climb the ladder and knock Dennis or Efren off etc….. This forces the guys at the top to stay sharp and the guys at the bottom something to aspire towards. So, the internal competition is the driver that propels these players to be the best that they can be, hence they have become one of the best pool cultures in the world (if not the best). I think the same thing could be said from the Chinese players etc… I said that to say this… I see this type of culture developing a little in the United States right now and we are slowly starting to see the fruit of that environment. While the US tournaments are fairly small in comparison, their is a culture of internal competition between guys like Bergman, Woodward, McMinn, etc… that is starting to generate the level of challenge it takes for our players to be driven to be better. I think some of these players have their eyes on Shane thinking that they can catch him etc…. This is the mentality that will increase the level of play in the United States.

Just my thoughts!

Professor, I love your assessment. I respectfully disagree with a few of your points however.

I agree the U.S. players that DO play in world events compete relatively well.
But to imply that if Archer, Morris, and/or Hatch were to go over to the "Worlds" and have a chance I disagree. for starters, those three players can no longer compete against the many talented players out there. These three are past their prime.

There are just too many world-players now who fill slots that will displace many U.S. players who, yes, can play but not quite to the level of what's out there.
Remember in the 80s and 90s when Mike, Buddy, and Earl were winning almost everything? The number of foreign players was small in terms of professionals entering those tourneys.

Here's a question. What if the pool of world-wide players was present back then?
You would have totally different results. My take away with that is not a "coud-a would-a," but an argument that says: even if we funded our best players to go to the
"Worlds" (how many would that be, 20?) they don't necessarily have to win.

If an American wins this year at the Worlds I will be very, very surprised.
 
SVB has as good of a chance as anyone to win this, and even Dechaine has a good shot at it.

I'm hoping that Mike Page does a Fargo analysis of the final 64. It wouldn't surprise me if SVB has a better than 25% chance at winning the whole thing, and there may only be one or two with a (slightly) higher chance.
 
SVB has as good of a chance as anyone to win this, and even Dechaine has a good shot at it.

I'm hoping that Mike Page does a Fargo analysis of the final 64. It wouldn't surprise me if SVB has a better than 25% chance at winning the whole thing, and there may only be one or two with a (slightly) higher chance.

Hoping you're right.
 
I think dechaine will surprise some people. Not saying he will win but i expect a very good showing
 
SVB has as good of a chance as anyone to win this, and even Dechaine has a good shot at it.

I'm hoping that Mike Page does a Fargo analysis of the final 64. It wouldn't surprise me if SVB has a better than 25% chance at winning the whole thing, and there may only be one or two with a (slightly) higher chance.
With 64 players left and such a close dispersion of skill, I bet no player is even in the double digit percentages as far as win likelihood...
 
you got a bet!

Skip100, since no players are in double percentage win likelihood, I'll take SVB at 10-1 odds to win it all. Let me know if you're willing to back up what you typed.
 
With 64 players left and such a close dispersion of skill, I bet no player is even in the double digit percentages as far as win likelihood...

You could be right but it's not as close as you suggest. I didn't go through the whole thing but according to Fargo ratings SVB has about a 95% chance of winning the first match, ~85% for the second, and ~65% for the third, depending on who wins of course. Obviously it's likely to get tougher as you move on, but I believe you only have to win 6 more matches to win the whole thing from here, and SVB is likely to have the advantage in all but maybe 1 match, maybe all of them. Again, according to Fargo Ratings.
 
Skip100, since no players are in double percentage win likelihood, I'll take SVB at 10-1 odds to win it all. Let me know if you're willing to back up what you typed.
I'm not much of a gambler, just a math guy :grin: Let's see what the Fargo ratings say. To oversimplify things (a lot), if Shane has a 70% chance to win every match, then he ends up with a 12% chance of winning the tournament. Perhaps he has a greater chance at first but toward the end it will be closer to 50/50.

For comparison, here are the 2014 NCAA tournament odds - and this is with half the bracket having practically zero chance.

Florida #1 11/2
Michigan State #4 7/1
Louisville #4 13/2
Arizona #1 9/1
Virginia #1 10/1
Wichita State #1 10/1
Kansas #2 10/1
 
Alternating break means the best players don't always win. If a player is down 4-1 there are very few comebacks when racing to 9.

It's been fun to watch. Wish they had replays of the matches since the last one is at 11:30 am EST now.
 
Just a couple of quick thoughts after watching the streams of the World 9 Ball. While I have had these types of thoughts for a while, I feel more confident in them now after watching the World 9 Ball Tournament.

1. After watching the "best" in the world play at this competition, I am pretty confident that the best players in the United States can hold their own against the rest of the world. In other words, if we had a bigger field of Americans including: Archer, Morris, Mills, Bergman, Hall, Woodward, Duel, Hatch, Oscar, etc……… I think we would be right in the mix with the worlds top competition. So I'm saying, I don't think we are as far behind the world as I believed before watching the international competition. This isn't a slam to the international competitors, but a statement about our players.

2. Its sad that we don't have some type of a system that helps to promote/fund our top players to play international events. I do recognize that getting that type of experience would be beneficial for our players to reach top form because it would put them in challenging situations mentally etc….. at that level the game is much more mental than physical, everybody is better than the table… the question is are you better than your opponent.

3. Finally, I think the lack of funding etc…. is what hinders our players much more than a talent deficit compared to the rest of the world. In other words, there is very little incentive to practice and improve because there is no long term reward in the minds of the players. I remember when the IPT kicked up, it brought a lot of players out of retirement (semi) because it gave them a reason to practice/play.

4. I think there are some good things happening in the United States right now that is getting overlooked a little. For example, I think the reason the Filipino players players have progressed so much is based on their cultural context. In other words, there is a pecking order in their country that drives them to climb to the top (within their country). This creates a situation where people are trying to climb the ladder and knock Dennis or Efren off etc….. This forces the guys at the top to stay sharp and the guys at the bottom something to aspire towards. So, the internal competition is the driver that propels these players to be the best that they can be, hence they have become one of the best pool cultures in the world (if not the best). I think the same thing could be said from the Chinese players etc… I said that to say this… I see this type of culture developing a little in the United States right now and we are slowly starting to see the fruit of that environment. While the US tournaments are fairly small in comparison, their is a culture of internal competition between guys like Bergman, Woodward, McMinn, etc… that is starting to generate the level of challenge it takes for our players to be driven to be better. I think some of these players have their eyes on Shane thinking that they can catch him etc…. This is the mentality that will increase the level of play in the United States.

Just my thoughts!


Has there ever been any factual account written of what the foreign players actually receive in support from their country's governments? This is thrown around AZB all the time but with nothing to ever back it up that I've ever seen. I understand things like WPA points will get you automatic invites to events and such. But what are examples of the actual financial support? Does the Russian Federation give Chinakov a $100 prepaid visacard so he can buy camel burgers at the Doha McDonalds? Yearly stipends? What?
 
Hey, BRussel:

Mike Page post current Fargo Ratings in the "World 9 Ball and How the Americans Compare!" forum topic- post #14. Check it out.
 
1. After watching the "best" in the world play at this competition, I am pretty confident that the best players in the United States can hold their own against the rest of the world. In other words, if we had a bigger field of Americans including: Archer, Morris, Mills, Bergman, Hall, Woodward, Duel, Hatch, Oscar, etc……… I think we would be right in the mix with the worlds top competition. So I'm saying, I don't think we are as far behind the world as I believed before watching the international competition. This isn't a slam to the international competitors, but a statement about our players.

Archer, Mills, Woodward, Deuel , Hatch, Oscar --- the guys who nearly never are among the last few in premier nine foot table events in America in 2014 or 2015. These guys aren't typically found in the last stages of Derby City, Turning Stone or the US Open 9-ball. Stepping up in competition is not what these guys need, although I feel confident Skyler Woodward will be a great player within a few years. Still, in rotation games, his track record on nine foot tables is pretty mediocre to date.

Rodney still has a strong top gear, occasionally strong enough to compete with the most elite internationals.

Justin Bergman had a major win against an elite international field at Hard Times in 2014, so there's at least some evidence he might be up to competition at the most elite level.

Of those you list, the only one I think would fare well in international competition is Justin Hall, 7th in the 2014 US Open 9-ball, 2nd at the US Open 10-ball, and 5th at the last Turning Stone event. Add his prodigious skills in both banks and one pocket and you've got a crazy-talented player capable of great things if he chose to get some international seasoning.

Face it, the US has just two players capable of shining at the highest level of international competition. Once you get past Shane and Mike, it's a steep drop to the rest of the American talent pool, possibly excepting Hall.

I really have to wonder what you're watching to conclude that so many of the guys who have been unsuccessful on American soil would find sudden success if they tried their luck against even tougher fields than they are used to.

The worst thing we American pool fans can do is be satisfied with what we've got. The place American pool pros hold in international competition is embarrassing, and when our guys try the WPA events, they have a poor track record of late. This can change, but if it changes, it will be the young guys who make it change, not the past-their-prime members of the old guard of American pool.
 
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You could be right but it's not as close as you suggest. I didn't go through the whole thing but according to Fargo ratings SVB has about a 95% chance of winning the first match, ~85% for the second, and ~65% for the third, depending on who wins of course.

Given those percentages, SVB is only a slight favorite to win all three of those matches.
 
Alternating break means the best players don't always win. ,,,
That's true. And winner breaks means the best players don't always win.

As Stu said, if you are going to have a tight rack, you need to have alternate breaks.
 
I think dechaine will surprise some people. Not saying he will win but i expect a very good showing

I hope for and expect the same. I think it's only a matter of time before Mike makes a big splash internationally. He'll become a juggernaut once he gets his foot in the door. His personality is built for it.
 
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