Regarding
The Shot/Decision after the Break
Here are the counts on offensive vs. defensive play following the break for the 12 matches covered in post #1 above.
• Match winners broke 116 times -- 99 successful (including one 9-ball), 6 fouled, and 11 dry (with no foul).
• Match losers broke 82 times -- 67 successful, 6 fouled, and 9 dry.
So, if we eliminate the one 9-ball on the break (no next shot) and the 12 fouled breaks (BIH for next shot, offensive every time, no missed first shots), we have 107 breaks for match winners (their 98 successful plus match losers' 9 dry) and 78 for match losers (their 67 successful plus match winners' 11 dry) for which they had to decide between offense and defense following the break. Here's the distribution of those 107 and 78 decisions:
Match Winners:
Attempted to pocket a ball -- 65 (61%); [4 misses -- 2 by Sanchez-Ruiz, 1 each by Thorpe and Shaw]
Played safe -- 20 (19%)
Pushed out -- 22 (21%)
Total -- 107
Match Losers:
Attempted to pocket a ball -- 49 (63%); [10 misses -- 2 each by Capito, Gorst, and Styer, and 1 each by Baoanan, Holem, SVB, and Filler]
Played safe -- 15 (19%)
Pushed out -- 14 (18%)
Total -- 78
So the percentages of taking a shot, playing safe, and pushing out were all quite close for each group. But the match winners' pocketing percentage when they went offensive [94% (61 of 65)] was quite a bit higher than the match losers' percentage [80% (39 of 49)].
Push outs numbered 38, the 36 shown above by the breaker and 2 more by the non-breaker after dry breaks. Match winners won 50% of the 22 games in which they pushed outs, and match losers won 50% of the 16 games in which they pushed out.