The role of variance in billiards

pocketspeed said:
there may be in fact no such thing as a statistically better player. 2 players of near equal skill (knowledge, experience, ability to execute) will be effected but "human" elements that cant be taken into statisical consideration- one player just had a huge fight with SO, is having back spasms, was up all night with the baby ect... all of which have a determental effect on play on a given day.
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Depends on what you are talking about. A player can have a statistically better win percentage and when it comes down to it winning is what matters. When I'm talking about correlating I'm talking about correlating with respect to win percentage. Looking at variables related to table layout that significantly correlate with winning.

also randomness is really irrelevant. good or bad layout after a break, poor playing circumstances it doesnt matter. in pool as in life there are very few ideal circumstances. it is up the player to utilize his skill to make the best of the situation in front of him.

brian
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I agree to a certain extent. If what you are stating were 100% true then no match would need to be more than a single game. In reality we run into the limits of the game; a player can run without their opponent even reaching the table. Randomness is a significant part of the game. If breaks were predictable a good player could always break and run. Reality is that problem clusters can and do pop up to complicate things so a reliable run out isn't always an option.

The cue can be controlled to a limited extent on the break but once contact with the rack is made the dice are thrown. A break that wouldn't have scratched without interference from object balls can end up in the pocket. Just this can throw the odds in favor of the opponent even when the skill of the (non-opponent) player in question is higher.

Both these scenarios outline situations where the skills of the players, relative to each other, doesn't matter. It's based on probability and the limitations of the game in question.

I wouldn't rate myself much higher than a low C but give me ball in hand and I can beat a pro with favorable table position.

Longer sets are played to eliminate the effects of random probability.
 
OMG, no! Reverse matrix!

Beer:30 said:
Longer sets are played to eliminate the effects of random probability.
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We have gone too far when we start discussing the dreaded:

------Random Probability------

This revolutionary theory in the field of Finite Mathematics will turn the scientific world upside down! The oxymoron to end all oxymoron!!:dance:

Just havn' fun . Let's go shoot some 9-ball . I'll give ya the 8 wild and I bet I beat ya! Let's forget this talk crap and play the GAME.:wave2:
 
12310bch said:
MIke , correct me if I'm wrong ( as if you wouldn't):wink: but I roughly
calculate the probability of winning 6-2 at about 24 percent. I just don't see it as being the same as winning 6-3, even with rounding.:confused:
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Fair enough...

I get 22.4% for 6-2

and 27% for 6-3

You guys are tough!
 
There's no crying in baseball. And there's no luck in pool. (unless a twig falls out of the sky on your backswing...)
 
Beer:30 said:
So a 9-ball break is skill?
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if you have clean balls on a flat surface...... and you pattern rack placing the same balls in the same positions every rack....

if conditions are good .. then yes.. it is... Corey Deuel pretty much proved it... to the point that ... the entire world moved to 10 ball....

so the answer to your question is yes.. if you work hard enough and long enough... you can totally own a 9-ball rack and repeat the same run out day after day...with very minor variations..
 
softshot said:
if you have clean balls on a flat surface...... and you pattern rack placing the same balls in the same positions every rack....

if conditions are good .. then yes.. it is... Corey Deuel pretty much proved it... to the point that ... the entire world moved to 10 ball....

so the answer to your question is yes.. if you work hard enough and long enough... you can totally own a 9-ball rack and repeat the same run out day after day...with very minor variations..
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I'm talking about sinking the 9 on the break every time. Or another way, break the rack and have all the balls end up in the same position every time. I'm not referring to a break and run. Hell, I can sink a ball on about every break.
 
This is a crackup!

The magic words are ," All other things being equal." But they
never are. You guys are moving into the theory of ,"Non-linear
Chaos." ( I know.The surface is a plane , but the balls are
round , so there.) Simply put , minuscule variations at the starting
point can lead to huge variations at the terminal.( If there even is a terminal to whatever process we are talking about).:scratchhead:

What fun! Next we can discuss how the gravity of one ball distorts the path of another because of the difference in the characteristics of light reflected by the various colors of the balls. Thus the only perfect pool game has to be one where all the balls are white.:rotflmao1:

--------- Shut up and rack!

Ya' gotta stop this , guys. Your just setting yourselves up for
wise asses like me. Matter of fact, where has Tramp been. He loves
this stuff.
 
12310bch said:
The magic words are ," All other things being equal." But they
never are. You guys are moving into the theory of ,"Non-linear
Chaos." ( I know.The surface is a plane , but the balls are
round , so there.) Simply put , minuscule variations at the starting
point can lead to huge variations at the terminal.( If there even is a terminal to whatever process we are talking about).:scratchhead:

What fun! Next we can discuss how the gravity of one ball distorts the path of another because of the difference in the characteristics of light reflected by the various colors of the balls. Thus the only perfect pool game has to be one where all the balls are white.:rotflmao1:

--------- Shut up and rack!

Ya' gotta stop this , guys. Your just setting yourselves up for
wise asses like me. Matter of fact, where has Tramp been. He loves
this stuff.
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We keep posting you keep cracking, it's win-win.
 
Beer:30 said:
I'm talking about sinking the 9 on the break every time. Or another way, break the rack and have all the balls end up in the same position every time. I'm not referring to a break and run. Hell, I can sink a ball on about every break.
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I was being slightly sarcastic. But here's a quote from Andy Lincoln from another thread. Andy used the Rack-M-Rite Racking Template to tap his home table.
http://forums.azbilliards.com/showth...+format&page=4
The 9 ball break being lucky discussion is absurd with a good rack. As Bob mentioned the wing ball goes in. I've broken 100 consecutive tight racks and made the wing 96. I missed a couple while I was over focusing on the 1 ball in the side (which went in 31 times). Speed of the break is immaterial for the wing ball and even 1 in the side. I made both several times breaking at about 12 miles per hour (just over stop shot speed on the break). In a tight rack the wing ball goes in based on where you hit the 1 ball.

Andy
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I'm guessing Andy never made the nine on the break because he was breaking from near the side rail and it is basicly impossible to make the 9 breaking from the side with a frozen rack. You can make it breaking from the middle if the back ball kicks it, but you are not likely to make anything else without a fortuitous kiss.

The balls take the same path each time to such a degree when frozen that they will wear 8 little white lines in your cloth when you break a 9 ball rack repeatedly from the same position.
 
David_Smith said:
I was being slightly sarcastic. But here's a quote from Andy Lincoln from another thread. Andy used the Rack-M-Rite Racking Template to tap his home table.
http://forums.azbilliards.com/showth...+format&page=4

I'm guessing Andy never made the nine on the break because he was breaking from near the side rail and it is basicly impossible to make the 9 breaking from the side with a frozen rack. You can make it breaking from the middle if the back ball kicks it, but you are not likely to make anything else without a fortuitous kiss.

The balls take the same path each time to such a degree when frozen that they will wear 8 little white lines in your cloth when you break a 9 ball rack repeatedly from the same position.
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OK, I'll give you that one. Order can be imposed but generally when you're playing competitively you don't get to control all those variables. I can see how a few balls will act predictably but I'm not sold on an entire rack. I don't like the idea of a predictable break but I can't refute it. It would be interesting to see to what degree breaks react consistently across tables. If an entire rack reacts predictable kudos to the man behind the stick on a consistent stroke.

12310bch said:
Your right . I'm the one who is cracking . I give up. Your a good sport though. Thanks. :thumbup2:
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No worries.
 
Beer:30 said:
So a 9-ball break is skill?
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yes the 9 ball break is a skill. if it werent then why would anyone practice it? at the sbe i was listening to the "drill instructor" giving a demo lesson about breaking. his point was that the break is an offensive shot and should be treated as such. utilizing the break as an offensive shot instead of just smacking the bejesus out of the rack does help to limit the "randomness" by giving you more predictable results. there will still be a random element (unless youre corey deuel) but thats where you need to apply your runout skills.

brian
 
12310bch said:
A large sampling of individual ratings will produce a ," bell shaped curve, "
thus a standard deviation. In a large sampling , the effect of luck
disappears as it is shared equally by opponents.
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Agree.

I have a book on backgammon titled "Luck is for Losers".

Now, in the short run, luck may indeed be a factor. But for someone like Grady to say on AZBilliards that so and so is consistently the luckiest player alive is simply ridiculous.
 
12310bch said:
"It seems to me that you have only one question to ask; ' Do I feel Lucky?'
Well, do you Tramp?" I guess that if your going to play you, "just gotsta' know." :killingme:
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Uh, let me guess. Bronson, right? Uh, how about McQueen? Nurse Ratchet, maybe? :D
 
pocketspeed said:
yes the 9 ball break is a skill. if it werent then why would anyone practice it? at the sbe i was listening to the "drill instructor" giving a demo lesson about breaking. his point was that the break is an offensive shot and should be treated as such. utilizing the break as an offensive shot instead of just smacking the bejesus out of the rack does help to limit the "randomness" by giving you more predictable results. there will still be a random element (unless youre corey deuel) but thats where you need to apply your runout skills.

brian
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I wasn't clear. I meant sinking the 9 on the break.
 
9 on the break actually is a skill.

If you're using a plastic or wood triangle, and not one of the perfect racks out there, you will leave tiny gaps. Certain tiny gaps can be exploited, for example to sink the 9 on the break. Is it 100%? Nope, but the player who has more skill at reading the rack (plus the knowledge, plus execution) will sink it far more than someone who doesn't know.

Joe Tucker explains 9 on the break in his racking secrets video.

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With that in mind, there's obviously luck in the game. Why would anyone argue there's not? There will always be stuff that even the most skilled human can't anticipate. I could shoot like efren but that won't give me the magic power to see a certain patch of rail is deader than the rest, or hit my first 3 rail kick on a totally unfamiliar table with unknown cloth. I can't control it when my unskilled opponent is playing to get leave on the 4 but instead misses the shot and hooks me on the ball he just missed. I can't call it skill when he just breaks as hard as he can and some ball zips around 5 rails, kisses another ball, and kicks in the 9.

Recently I saw a straight pool match where one player butchered the opening break and sent the CB on a line almost directly for the corner pocket. The CB hits the side rail (barely missing the corner), then hits the pocket facing, then nestles the CB against the opposite facing. He has corner-hooked his opponent by hitting a shot badly. He couldn't do it on purpose with 100 tries.
 
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