Anybody that gets the 2 an out and the break and loses cant play .Im not saying you didnt do it but the person has better odds winning the lottery than making a ball.:wink:
I really thought you was kidding with this offer to Scott.
This goes down I'll take a small wager on Scott.I would bet my house but money makes people do funny things.
Scott get up and rob this guy dammit.
All this reminds me of the time I was in Germany and talking about spots that Americans give to each other. I mentioned that sometimes people give up the break and ball in hand after the break.
Well this guy pipes up and say he would take that spot from anyone including from Efren. Now in this room they know Efren as he had been there several times.
I was feeling real good because I had just won 1400 about 20 minutes prior so I said tell you what I will give you that spot for 50 a set race to five. He says sure and away we go. First set he takes ball in hand and tries to run out and doesn't get there and I win. Second set he plays more safeties and I don't convert them and he wins. So I quit.
But I said to him, you know Efren and how well he kicks so what do you think that the odds are that he would kick and resafe you often? The guy then admitted that the spot wasn't as big as he initially thought.
The 2 out and the breaks is a huge spot but it's not necessarily as big as one thinks it should be. Imagine if CJ is playing another pro, he expects that most of the time the first player who sees a shot is out. So by giving up the 2 out and the breaks he is only really putting himself up against about the same odds as he figures to be in against another pro. With one big caveat, all the pressure to win is on the guy getting the spot since everyone figures it to be a lock anyway.
And also, we all know that after the break there isn't always a shot to be had. Pretty sure CJ isn't going to give up the wild balls on the break in that spot. Which itself presents a problem if they play with the rules that balls made on the break spot to the string.
Lastly I want to relate another story of huge spots and the better players coming out on top anyway.
I once played in a tournament in London where the spots were such that if you were getting say the five out then as soon as you were on the five you could literally shoot ANY ball in and win but the spot giver was still restricted to just shooting the lowest numbered ball. It was insane.
But week after week the better players still won because they adjusted their strategy to move the balls around and either create clusters or set up the table to be run out easily. They absolutely would not make a ball unless they could run the table from that shot. Point being that great players find ways to overcome what seems like impossible odds.
Not saying Scott can't win here but I definitely saying that it's not a lock that CJ loses in my opinion. Of course if offered this weight I would HAVE to take it. You can't be a player who has ever run a rack and not take this weight if you gamble at all.