There's almost never any guarantee on any shot. A perfect break shot might triple kiss as the cue ball snakes its way into a pocket.Bob, I had to think about your reply.
I'm not sure Crane had a 60% shot but for the sake of arguement, let's say he did. On the shot he had, the wildcard in going for it was the chances of getting a shot afterward. Since the cueball was comng from the back of the stack with no good control of where it would hit, there was no guarantee a clear shot was available. In that case, firing a 60% shot seems like a gamble. True, he could've missed it and also left his opponent with nothing - another gamble. At the top levels, I don't see these guys taking on a gamble too often. This is what you likely mean when you say they play too conservative. I'm thinking there's a good reason for that.
Anyhow, I figure if Crane's peers thought he clearly took the wrong shot, I have to think he lucked out by firing at it and coming out good.
If young Crane played the hard shot against a champion, then he was probably less than 50% to get the first open shot if he had gone into a safety battle. If he felt good about running the balls if the break worked, then maybe the tough break is the right shot even with a less than 50% chance for that single shot. If he makes the break but does not get a shot, then he can start a series of safeties.
I think what a lot of players fail to ask themselves is, if I start a safety battle now, what chance do I have to win it? Some players think they're 100% to get the first shot, but not everyone can be 100%. Another possibility is that Crane had watched the other player before and was frequently surprised by how often he made a great safety that turned the game around. Crane might have put himself at 20% to get the first shot. If that's true, he has to shoot at 30% shots if the alternative is a mediocre safe.