Chohan V Orcollo October 5 –8

[mikepage]

20-13 Dennis,,,,,,,,,,,,:wink:

Interesting that this is the score that Fargo Ratings would say is most likely after 33 games. Normally we think of Fargo Ratings as being not so relevant for one pocket. Certainly people like Tony and Scott and a few others can torture in one pocket opponents with notably higher Fargo Ratings. But I think what happens is as that as both players become sophisticated in the game, the Fargo Ratings --which I think we should think of as reflecting core skills in some way, start to become more relevant.

 

[crabbcatjohn]

Thats certainly interesting... It kinda ticks me off you can make these outrageous claims when a particular match score happens to work for your software promoting agenda. If its so accurate what happened with Fargo Rate in their last match... If you would have at least mentioned the last match in your post it would have been nice. According to what you are promoting Dennis should have won the last one 40-26 You have certainly lost any credibility you might have had in my mind.

 

[Black-Balled]

Thats certainly interesting... It kinda ticks me off you can make these outrageous claims when a particular match score happens to work for your software promoting agenda. If its so accurate what happened with Fargo Rate in their last match... If you would have at least mentioned the last match in your post it would have been nice. According to what you are promoting Dennis should have won the last one 40-26 You have certainly lost any credibility you might have had in my mind.

Good grief! Rock in your shoe?

I am inclined to agree with you that the result is indicative, not conclusive...but I wouldn't reach in an take out a piece of the man's heart.

This Fargo thing is pretty accurate in many ways, never mind the impact on our little world.

 

[Black-Balled]

Oh, and I stand corrected, Lenny is selling frost/ orcullo:
http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=449203

 

[mikepage]

Thats certainly interesting... It kinda ticks me off you can make these outrageous claims when a particular match score happens to work for your software promoting agenda. If its so accurate what happened with Fargo Rate in their last match... If you would have at least mentioned the last match in your post it would have been nice. According to what you are promoting Dennis should have won the last one 40-26 You have certainly lost any credibility you might have had in my mind.

It is not clear how relevant Fargo Ratings are for one-pocket--a game where some specialized knowledge/skill plays a big role.

But even forgetting that, I don't think people should think about Fargo Ratings as predicting a match score. In fact, it is fair to say FargoRate predicts when two players are 60 points apart that there is sometimes a blowout in one direction, sometimes a blowout in the other direction, sometimes an upset, and so forth. What it does, even when it IS working correctly, is predict a long-term ratio of games won.

In this case, I noted the score after yesterday, compared it to that long-term ratio, and found they matched. I thought people might be interested to know that--not in a looky-here-we-got-it-right sense, but rather just as a point of interest. When Tony wins a match by a bunch against Dennis, there is nothing to point out. The lower-rated player won by a bunch....OK. Nobody is confused about how that compared to the long-term expectation from Fargo Ratings.

Again you should not think of Fargo Ratings as predicting a match score. Sure there is a match score that is most likely, but it is not much more likely than adjacent scores and collectively a particular match score is quite unlikely

 

[crabbcatjohn]

It is not clear how relevant Fargo Ratings are for one-pocket--a game where some specialized knowledge/skill plays a big role.

But even forgetting that, I don't think people should think about Fargo Ratings as predicting a match score. In fact, it is fair to say FargoRate predicts when two players are 60 points apart that there is sometimes a blowout in one direction, sometimes a blowout in the other direction, sometimes an upset, and so forth. What it does, even when it IS working correctly, is predict a long-term ratio of games won.

In this case, I noted the score after yesterday, compared it to that long-term ratio, and found they matched. I thought people might be interested to know that--not in a looky-here-we-got-it-right sense, but rather just as a point of interest. When Tony wins a match by a bunch against Dennis, there is nothing to point out. The lower-rated player won by a bunch....OK. Nobody is confused about how that compared to the long-term expectation from Fargo Ratings.

Again you should not think of Fargo Ratings as predicting a match score. Sure there is a match score that is most likely, but it is not much more likely than adjacent scores and collectively a particular match score is quite unlikely

Yes, you noted that in this particular case the score matched. Well done.

 

[BassMasterK]

Thats certainly interesting... It kinda ticks me off you can make these outrageous claims when a particular match score happens to work for your software promoting agenda. If its so accurate what happened with Fargo Rate in their last match... If you would have at least mentioned the last match in your post it would have been nice. According to what you are promoting Dennis should have won the last one 40-26 You have certainly lost any credibility you might have had in my mind.

It appears you are mistaking long term statistical probability with short term results. Flip a fair coin two times and there is a 25% chance that the result will be two heads and a 25% chance that the result will be two tails. If you get either one of those results, you might say "Wow, this coin flips (your result) 100% of the time! The statistics behind all coin flips must be complete garbage. Coin flips no longer have any credibility in my mind and must never be used to determine who breaks ever again." However, if you flip the coin 2,000 times you will see the results have moved closer to the expected 50/50 determination. Flip the coin 2 million times and the results will be even closer to the expected 50/50 determination.

What Mike pointed out here, is that in this case the long term probability exactly matched the short term results, even in a game that Fargorate isn't typically used to predict outcome probability for.

 

[Cornerman]

cornerman
thanks for the comments on the games
i dont stay up late enough to watch the last portion each day
andits nice to know alittle of how the final score came to be

Fortunately I'm on the west coast, and it ended at a decent hour for me. And I committed to be a coach potato last night just for this. Not sure about tonight.

IMO:

The score actually is misleading. Tony should be closer, but he looked tired or dejected late. He had the same opportunities to steal game after game, and Dennis' end game is really not good... yet.

Dennis' ball-making execution and position play is outstanding to say the least, and he's learned to keep Tony away from some of these free shots he got in the previous Race to 40, but he still keeps moving the wrong ball in the end game, and he lets Tony fire at way too many two-railers. I'm more surprised that Tony missed some of those banks. Tony hits those better than anyone I've seen. And Dennis keeps feeding them to Tony.

When Dennis really learns the end game and up table game, he might enter the Efren Zone. At one point he needed one, and Tony needed a lifeline. And every ball (six or seven) was tied up, and Dennis opened them up. Even rookies (like me) don't do that. He needed one. Maybe he was thinking if he opened them up that he'd have a better chance to shoot at a ball towards his hole. But by opening them up, Tony was able to make the one bank shot that allowed him to have the opportunity to run the rack out.

DoubleJ had a great suggestion where it would be a mic'd up pseudo partner event where he would do the talking, and his partner (like a Dennis or Shane) would do the execution. I'd pay to see that.

Freddie <~~~ not either side of that pair

 

[wahcheck]

what's to come

I think DO was way behind in the first match and came back; will Tony come back in this match? Predictions, please....

 

[crabbcatjohn]

It appears you are mistaking long term statistical probability with short term results. Flip a fair coin two times and there is a 25% chance that the result will be two heads and a 25% chance that the result will be two tails. If you get either one of those results, you might say "Wow, this coin flips (your result) 100% of the time! The statistics behind all coin flips must be complete garbage. Coin flips no longer have any credibility in my mind and must never be used to determine who breaks ever again." However, if you flip the coin 2,000 times you will see the results have moved closer to the expected 50/50 determination. Flip the coin 2 million times and the results will be even closer to the expected 50/50 determination.

What Mike pointed out here, is that in this case the long term probability exactly matched the short term results, even in a game that Fargorate isn't typically used to predict outcome probability for.

I guess i see his post in a different way. I don't dispute his system is fairly accurate in players skill levels. I just didn't agree he "found it interesting" that this particular score worked out but he didn't mention any other data from the other actual completed match in his post. The post seemed very self serving to me. At least that's the way i see it.

 

[Renegade_56]

I think DO was way behind in the first match and came back; will Tony come back in this match? Predictions, please....

I doubt it. of the 6 days they have played each other in this format DO has won more games 5 days. At one point last night Do won 8 out of 9 games. I think it's a blowout in the making.

 

[Texas Carom Club]

Dennis was blown out day one on the original match
It's been close ever since until last night where Tony was blown out

Alot of games still to be played

 

[wahcheck]

hope not

I doubt it. of the 6 days they have played each other in this format DO has won more games 5 days. At one point last night Do won 8 out of 9 games. I think it's a blowout in the making.

I'm afraid you may be right; I do hope Tony comes back though....
It seems DO's world class shotmaking ability may be too tough to overcome...

 

[mikepage]

I guess i see his post in a different way. I don't dispute his system is fairly accurate in players skill levels. I just didn't agree he "found it interesting" that this particular score worked out but he didn't mention any other data from the other actual completed match in his post. The post seemed very self serving to me. At least that's the way i see it.

OK just for you Crabbcatjohn...

Did anyone else notice that Siming Chen played Albin Ouschan a race to 9 yesterday in the Eurotour/Austria Open?

The long-term expectation from Fargorate is she gets to the hill against Albin; in fact she lost 9 to 5.

 

[terryhanna]

T-Rex vs Robocop One Pocket match will resume at 6pm eastern.

Dennis is up 20-13 after 1st two days,but the match is far from over it's a race to 40.

Tune in and see if Tony can make comeback on day three.

Jeremy Jones will be doing the commentary :thumbup:

Purchase a pass to watch the stream here ↪ www.PoolActionTV.com

​

 

[Renegade_56]

I'm afraid you may be right; I do hope Tony comes back though....
It seems DO's world class shotmaking ability may be too tough to overcome...

Agreed. The thing about Tony is his ability at times to make shots that pretty much no one else would shoot at, When he makes more of them than he misses he's hell to beat, Dennis on the other hand, being still fairly new to the strategy of one pocket, nevertheless has a foundation of being a truly great shot maker. He don't always shoot what experts believe is the right shot, and he himself admits it, he's still learning, but I believe being the better shotmaker overall will pull him through, especially now with a 7 game lead needing only 20 to Tony needing 27. There have already been 3 or 4 games when Tony came back to win endgame situations just by moving a little better than Dennis did. Dennis knows this and I think from here he will be more meticulous on that point. Tony on the other hand, is not going to suddenly become the great shot maker Dennis is, so his strategy today will most likely be to swing more than he did last night. If those extra swings don't produce we are looking at a major blowout. Basically, Tony more aggressive to Dennis more patient. I just love one pocket.

 

[wahcheck]

yep

Renegade: I agree about Tony's aggressiveness as opposed to DO's conservative style....I think he said in the first post-match interview that he needed to play that way to beat DO....now that he is so much behind, I don't see him playing any other way but to generally "go for it"..... playing conservatively will probably not help him catch up.....

 

[crabbcatjohn]

OK just for you Crabbcatjohn...

Did anyone else notice that Siming Chen played Albin Ouschan a race to 9 yesterday in the Eurotour/Austria Open?

The long-term expectation from Fargorate is she gets to the hill against Albin; in fact she lost 9 to 5.

Sorry if you did't understand my initial post and sorry if misunderstood yours. My apologies if i said something out of line. After you shared this post I now totally understand. Have a good day and good luck too you in the future!

 

[terryhanna]

Day 2 results...

Score for last niight ended Robocop Dennis Orcollo up 20-13 over T-Rex Tony Chohan.

Tony came on strong the 1st few games last night and tied up the match at 12-12 ,but after that to many mistakes from Tony and Dennis won the next 8 out of 9 games

Lots of exciting play last night check out some video highlights of some of the best shots of day two here ↪ https://www.facebook.com/318365238193574/videos/1825556164141133/

Two more days of super high level One Pocket from two of the best players on the planet.

Jeremy Jones is doing a fantastic job in the commentary booth with expert One Pocket analysis breaking down all the shots and strategies

Match will resume for Day 3 at 6pm Eastern time today .

 

[mikepage]

Sorry if you did't understand my initial post and sorry if misunderstood yours. My apologies if i said something out of line. After you shared this post I now totally understand. Have a good day and good luck too you in the future!

No problem...

And to get a little more back on track for this thread, I'll pose a question...

When a highly skilled player starts learning one pocket (think James Aranas recently) or imagine Ko Pin Yi or Albin Ouschan, or any of a number of top players who don't really know the game...

...we all know that player will learn fast in the early going, where the player can really benefit a lot by a small amount of new knowledge. Then as the player gets better, further improvement gets harder and harder to come by...

So the question is this:

Is DO a moving target?

Is he still at a stage of development where a 3-day match with a specialist improves his game in a material way? In other words, Does DO after one of these matches play better one pocket than DO before the match?