tomatoshooter
Well-known member
He'd probably get 100 within a century
The Legendary Pearl to Take On 14.1 Attempts
- Thread starter lfigueroa
- Start date
kanzzo
hobby player
or to put in these numbers from Earl:
he needed around 11 attempts for 100 (121 attempts for 200 would be the math, so 2 out of 200 look nice) and it took him a week full time for 200 tries.
that's 14 641 attempts to get to 400 (or 73 weeks) so his claims to have shot 400+ practicing straight pool like a maniac are believable.
to shoot 1000 with this level of play it would take 26 000 000 000 attempts or 130 000 000 weeks or 2.5 million years
Last edited:
Or in terms of Government spending...a week or so ago....
Hmmm...I'm not sure what you did there but it doesn't pass my sniff test. If someone could post all the raw data, and if the data fall into some recognizable distribution, I can calculate the area under the curve for our probability.
Your math is bullshit because you're completely ignoring the 50 years of practicing and playing Earl put in BEFORE he made his first 11 attempts to run 100. How many weeks is that already in the bank so to speak??? Yet a kid i believe at 21 years old runs a 285 on the Diamond 9ft at the DCC in the 14.1 high run challenge with Pro Cut 4 1/2" and 5" pockets with less than 3 attempts, Joshua Filler!!
So apples to apples
At 21 who’s stronger Earl or Filler?
Can’t compare them now, 40 years is too much to fade.
At 21 who played the best?
Filler, win the world 9 ball championship younger than Earl, and against a much more competitive international field of players the likes Earl never faced in his 20's
Earl turns up at 60 years old, in all likelihood not having played any serious 14,1 for quite a while, and knocks in a bunch of 100s and a couple of 200s, in a manner that, with all respect to Earl, would be considered non-optimal (shooting way too fast and as a result missing simple shots, pretty sloppy cueball control, often less than ideal key balls, etc).
I don’t know if he did make 480 or 408, but I have no doubt in my mind that 30 years ago, and maybe still today, with his tenacity and occasional bursts of stability, those numbers would be within his grasp. Dude is a pool playing beast. I’m flat out staying on the table for 2 hours let alone 4-6 hours 5 days in a row, and I’m not anywhere near Earl’s age.
I don’t know if he did make 480 or 408, but I have no doubt in my mind that 30 years ago, and maybe still today, with his tenacity and occasional bursts of stability, those numbers would be within his grasp. Dude is a pool playing beast. I’m flat out staying on the table for 2 hours let alone 4-6 hours 5 days in a row, and I’m not anywhere near Earl’s age.
kanzzo
hobby player
I just took this data.
200 total attempts. 17 times 100+ (2 times 200+)
200/17 = 11.76. so from this data 11.8 attempts on average for Earl to shoot 100. Used 11 for calculation.
Data doesn't have to be perfect, just putting in the numbers gives you an Idea how big a run is possible in what time span.
Ni
Varner was named "Player of the Year" in 1980, 1989 and 1994. Varner has won world championship's in five different pool disciplines in 9-Ball, 8-Ball, Straight Pool, Bank pool and One Pocket an unprecedented feat.
Allen Hopkins has earned titles in such varied events as the 1977 World Straight Pool Championship, the 1978 and 1981 U.S. Open 9-Ball Championships, the 1990 Cleveland Open 10-Ball Classic and the 1991 Legends of One-Pocket event.
Earl Strickland holds the record for winning the WPA World Nine-ball championship the most times: three (1990, 1991, 2002). Earl Strickland holds the record for the most consecutive wins: two (1990, 1991).
Nick Varner and Allen Hopkins won world titles in 8b, 9b and 14.1 respectively. Outside of the world 9b titles Earl has won, what other titles has he won?? I forgot to mention all their championships,
Varner was named "Player of the Year" in 1980, 1989 and 1994. Varner has won world championship's in five different pool disciplines in 9-Ball, 8-Ball, Straight Pool, Bank pool and One Pocket an unprecedented feat.
Allen Hopkins has earned titles in such varied events as the 1977 World Straight Pool Championship, the 1978 and 1981 U.S. Open 9-Ball Championships, the 1990 Cleveland Open 10-Ball Classic and the 1991 Legends of One-Pocket event.
Earl Strickland holds the record for winning the WPA World Nine-ball championship the most times: three (1990, 1991, 2002). Earl Strickland holds the record for the most consecutive wins: two (1990, 1991).
Last edited:
All of the runs in Schmidt's four sessions pretty much fit the usual statistics. The problem for Earl is that his average was way down. That made it very unlikely he would run 400.
Edit: I see now that Earl's overall average was about 40 balls per inning. In this context, that's not very good.
Last edited:
kanzzo
hobby player
for example if you want to go for Mosconis 525 within 6 months you would need to shoot 100 on average 1 in 4 attempts (or better).
John Schmidt was about 1 in 3 for 100, Mosconi from the stories I read about 1 in 2 and every player can easily calculate this number for himself. (Giving his actual form on actual conditions). I am sure, Strickland played better 20 years ago so his average for reaching 100 was probably better and it took him less than 70 weeks to shoot 400+
And someone like Filler is definitely capable of shooting 400+ in relatively small time span
John Schmidt was about 1 in 3 for 100, Mosconi from the stories I read about 1 in 2 and every player can easily calculate this number for himself. (Giving his actual form on actual conditions). I am sure, Strickland played better 20 years ago so his average for reaching 100 was probably better and it took him less than 70 weeks to shoot 400+
And someone like Filler is definitely capable of shooting 400+ in relatively small time span
What? I feel like maybe you didn’t mean to reply to me, but i’ll help anyway:
Attachments
At what mathamatical probability would you say things are "impossible"? Let's say Earl running 1000 balls. If the math predicts 1/1,000, 1/10,000, 1/100,000, etc. Where do you draw the line and say "no way can Earl ever do this?"
tomatoshooter
Well-known member
Filler had a 285 at the 2019 Derby City on 4.5-inch pockets. I think he'll have a 400 within 50 tries with the larger pockets. He has a large advantage in shooting quickly.
With a 480 high run, where's Earl's championships in 14.1? That claimed high run is higher than Nick Varner's, Allen Hopkins, and Mike Segal's, yet they have all won the world title in 14.1 and Earl hasn't???
Sigel has won over 100 professional pool tournaments in his career as well as over 40 major titles, making him one of the most successful players of all time winning multiple world pocket billiard championship titles, in all divisions, including Nine-ball, Eight-ball and Straight pool (14.1)
Sigel has won over 100 professional pool tournaments in his career as well as over 40 major titles, making him one of the most successful players of all time winning multiple world pocket billiard championship titles, in all divisions, including Nine-ball, Eight-ball and Straight pool (14.1)
kanzzo
hobby player
if you need 70 weeks to reach 400+ and are motivated to put in the hours, than reaching 400+ is possible.
with same math 500+ would be 770 weeks or 15 years. Could get lucky once in a lifetime putting ton of hours just playing straight pool but it's tougher. 600+ would take 165 years. Given that you play top level pool around 20 years between 28 and 48 this would be 1/8 reaching 625 once in your lifetime dedicating your life to it. 700+ would be 1/90 in your lifetime so chances are, you give up and don't go for it 20 years of your life...
for reaching 1000 for Earl the math predicts 26 000 000 000 attempts. It's way lower than your 1/100,000
You would need (as Earl) put your average for reaching 100 way below 1 in 3. And this is where this math is helpfull. You don't need to try for a year first to see, how much you could reach after a year. 1 week is more than enough.
with same math 500+ would be 770 weeks or 15 years. Could get lucky once in a lifetime putting ton of hours just playing straight pool but it's tougher. 600+ would take 165 years. Given that you play top level pool around 20 years between 28 and 48 this would be 1/8 reaching 625 once in your lifetime dedicating your life to it. 700+ would be 1/90 in your lifetime so chances are, you give up and don't go for it 20 years of your life...
for reaching 1000 for Earl the math predicts 26 000 000 000 attempts. It's way lower than your 1/100,000
You would need (as Earl) put your average for reaching 100 way below 1 in 3. And this is where this math is helpfull. You don't need to try for a year first to see, how much you could reach after a year. 1 week is more than enough.
kanzzo
hobby player
your high run doesn't say much about your straight pool abilities if you don't put into account, how many attemps it took.
Strickland could have reached 480 in 10,000 tries, just because he is crazy enough to try. Filler is probably able to get it under 100 tries (read less than 1%) but never bothered. He practices, til he reaches 200 and then quits for the day. Ortmann had 100 and out, 150 and out and 150 and out in 3 consecutive matches of one tournament (so he probably would be able to reach 400 quite easily), but never bothered, since his goal was only to win the race to 150...