Actually, 47 players carry a Fargo of 790 or better. These are elite players, and, in my assessment, they all play well enough to go on a magical run to the title. That said, I'd put the over/under on the Fargo of the eventual champion at about 820.
Even more importantly, Peach reminds us that even a difficult draw may not stop you when everything's breaking your way.
Agreed 100%.
Sounds about right. The standard is so high that one must expect one of the best few to prevail.
If that is true then we might see some wild cards, lower rated players who get a good roll and make it to the top stages of the competition. Like it happens in the FIFA World Cup sometimes.The biggest change compared to last year is that KO stage this year is last 64 while last year was last 16
In first stage double elimination stage, only need to win 3 straight on winners side to qualify for last 64
So first stage now gives the elite players less time to "warm up" finetune their game unlike last year.Means the elite players really have to perform and get their game up to speed real fast cos KO stage now starts earlier.
Number of matches to win title undefeated is 9 same as last year. This year is 3 in first stage+6 in KO stage while last year is 5 in first stage +4 in KO stage.
Yea, amazing how close Parica and Rempe came to winning the event, or even Bustamante not even making it to the finals of the event, mind boggling!
Yup. The key code in R is:
Means the elite players really have to perform and get their game up to speed real fast cos KO stage now starts earlier. # Single-game win probability for player A vs. player B
fargo <- function(a, b) { 1 / (1 + exp(-(a - b) / 144.3)) }
# Simulate result of a race to 9 between player A and player B
result <- rbinom(n = 1, size = 1, pbinom(8, size = 17, prob = fargo(a, b), lower.tail = FALSE))I liked the 16 in Stage 2 format, but I like this, too. As you suggest, the elite have a little less room for error and, of course, as we've seen in the past, a bad draw can bury you in this format. If memory serves, Shaw drew Van Boening in the Round of 64 during the 2021 World Pool Championship. In my experience, fans like "win or go home" matches a lot more than the players do, as the drama and tension run high. This tourney should be a fan's delight.The biggest change compared to last year is that KO stage this year is last 64 while last year was last 16
In first stage double elimination stage, only need to win 3 straight on winners side to qualify for last 64
So first stage now gives the elite players less time to "warm up" finetune their game unlike last year.Means the elite players really have to perform and get their game up to speed real fast cos KO stage now starts earlier.
Number of matches to win title undefeated is 9 same as last year. This year is 3 in first stage+6 in KO stage while last year is 5 in first stage +4 in KO stage.
In the first US Open that Matchroom ran, I think all 15 matches of the final 16 stage were broadcast -- there was only one table. That's nice because you get to see all of the players and follow all of the progress. The advantage of 64 is that you can pick the matches you want to show and the broadcast is more flexible. I think in the case of the UK Open they did not show all of the matches from the round of 16 on. (In the UK Open, they ran the tournament on 24 tables, so scheduling was tight.)
My 16 year old son is playing at the US Open. So my family will be there.
Good luck
