Yes. He is. Much.
Bergman vs Morra, race to 100.
- Thread starter gxman
- Start date
Yes. He is. Much.
I would think the tighter than normal diamond table and John playing left handed is playing a bigger factor than people thought. Bergman is a monster and I don't think pocket size makes any difference to him.
Got it to work again.....watched about 2 minutes of it, before I had enough.
Thanks for the help!
as much as i would like to see that i don't think i'll ever watch a match with this guy without a shot clock in operation
This is why pool isn’t on mainstream TV. Watching JB is like watching paint dry. Slowly.
This performance is drastically different from the predicted result of a match between players with 791 and 781 ratings.
Each game is predicted to be 51.7% for Bergman and 48.3% for Morra. A 70-46 total match result is technically within a two-sided 95% confidence interval, though just barely. A 71-45 result would be outside the 95% CI.
Each game is predicted to be 51.7% for Bergman and 48.3% for Morra. A 70-46 total match result is technically within a two-sided 95% confidence interval, though just barely. A 71-45 result would be outside the 95% CI.
Thanks. I like it that way better myself.
This is a gambling match. Bergman is playing his game to win. Slow methodical or whatever it's working.
Also, a couple of my observations (even though I can't say I watched every shot) Bergman is torturing Morra with his safety play. I can't count the number of times Bergman will absolutely put the cue ball in jail welded to the back of another ball or two. Secondly, Bergman is doing this with a break that is clearly inferior to his opponent's. Morra seems to be regularly making the balls behind the head ball in the sides. Bergman has had countless dry breaks and when he makes balls it is much more random and rarely getting shots at a run out. But his cue ball and safety game has been so on point he's largely neutralized the difference. It ain't always pretty...it just works.
Also, a couple of my observations (even though I can't say I watched every shot) Bergman is torturing Morra with his safety play. I can't count the number of times Bergman will absolutely put the cue ball in jail welded to the back of another ball or two. Secondly, Bergman is doing this with a break that is clearly inferior to his opponent's. Morra seems to be regularly making the balls behind the head ball in the sides. Bergman has had countless dry breaks and when he makes balls it is much more random and rarely getting shots at a run out. But his cue ball and safety game has been so on point he's largely neutralized the difference. It ain't always pretty...it just works.
Several factors are different than the consistent circumstances Fargo is based on.
I've known Justin since he was 9 years old. He is an incredible player that can play both at a very deliberate pace like he is in this match, as well at a very quick pace under shot clock conditions. If he is playing at that pace without a mandated shot clock, you might as well just quit, because he knows he has the nuts and not going to lose. I bought this stream for 2 reasons. 1) I wanted to watch very tactical high level pool, and 2) all the stream money is going directly to the players and will try my best to support Justin any time he is in a match. I have read pretty much all of comments on this thread and don't recall seeing one person blame Morra for the speed of this match. Yes, Justin is being very deliberate! But he is also giving up 15 games to very capable player. I know he's playing left handed now, but has been doing so for just over a year I believe and playing well and beating other top level players. I believe Mike Page did a study recently showing very little difference of his Fargo over the past year or so. Morra isn't exactly tearing up the carpet when he is at the table. As mentioned before, the balls are just not breaking very well for Justin, so there are a ton of safeties, followed by a bunch of good kick safes by both players. I think Morra's pace and the level of difficulty of the table with the poor breaks are just as much a factor of the pace of the match and not just solely on Justin.
There is NO excuse for 11 to 14 minute racks PERIOD!
I dont care how long you've known him, APA 2s could play more games per hour on a 10 ' table with 4" pockets.
No excuse for either of these guys to play like that.
No chance in hell I was buying this stream - I couldnt think of anything more boring.
Some people just don't like stinky cheese, no matter how fancy it is.
Justin's a bad mofo, no doubt about it....but the pace of play sounds like punishment.
Justin's a bad mofo, no doubt about it....but the pace of play sounds like punishment.
Jr. Nationals
When I first saw him, it was at Magoos/Tulsa OK when he was 14 in competition.
John Lewis and I ran the Jr. Nationals during that time, when the BCA moved from IA to CO.
He of all players ''stuck out'' in his youth. He had a swing that was quite different than that of todayand all other players, kinda like mini Efren with allot of outside spin/fearless.
When I first saw him, it was at Magoos/Tulsa OK when he was 14 in competition.
John Lewis and I ran the Jr. Nationals during that time, when the BCA moved from IA to CO.
He of all players ''stuck out'' in his youth. He had a swing that was quite different than that of todayand all other players, kinda like mini Efren with allot of outside spin/fearless.
I first saw him in Pittsburg. I spent a few days in the pool room and there were some very noisy people in there that got a lot quieter when Justin rolled in.
And that was 2004?
Hey, a comeback may still be possible, but in situations like this one the great Howard Cosell used to say "if it was a fight, they'd stop it."
You have to be careful here.
This assumes each game is an independent event with those chances.
This is like Nate Silver's discussion in "The Signal and the Noise" about how the rating agencies got things so wrong in advance of the 2008 crash. If you bundle five mortgages together, each of which has a 20% chance of defaulting, and you win unless all five default, then you're pretty safe. You're pretty safe, that is, provided the carpenter in Iowa and the Nail Salon owner in Nevada defaulting are independent events. That's a fine assumption in a humming economy, where a default is kind of an individual bad roll--an illness, a divorce, etc. If there is a common factor, like the housing bubble, then those bundled mortgages were actually far riskier than you thought.
Similarly, if you logged 120 different games between these two over many different days and conditions, the games are much more independent.
Look at Earl, who at Turning Stone in August went 47 to 27 against Shane, Jayson, and Hohmann only to lose 6 weeks later 100 to 48 to Skylar. And then he went 9 to 11 against Sky 6 weeks after that.
If one of them is more affected by the conditions or the speed of play or the travel or a relationship with a backer or a confidence level or, then it will affect all the games.
Can't quibble with any of the above, though I would point out that you have used the results of other long matches as a proof point for FargoRate's accuracy.
It is certainly true that a single long race between two players is the prototypical situation for non-independent trials in the pool context.
The purpose of my post was not to contest the ratings, just to point out that for whatever reason - and there are many possible reasons - the match is not turning out as the ratings would suggest.
Even with the problematic 95% confidence interval construct this result is within the expected bounds, albeit barely.
It is certainly true that a single long race between two players is the prototypical situation for non-independent trials in the pool context.
The purpose of my post was not to contest the ratings, just to point out that for whatever reason - and there are many possible reasons - the match is not turning out as the ratings would suggest.
Even with the problematic 95% confidence interval construct this result is within the expected bounds, albeit barely.
Last edited:
Can't quibble with any of the above, though I would point out that you have used the results of other long matches as a proof point for FargoRate's accuracy.
It is certainly true that a single long race between two players is the prototypical situation for non-independent trials in the pool context.
The purpose of my post was not to contest the ratings, just to point out that for whatever reason - and there are many possible reasons - the match is not turning out as the ratings would suggest.
It takes allot outta you to come back like JB did, we'll see how it plays out the final day. Is the final day tomorrow or Sun.?
Post punk out money next time.