APA Skill Level vs Win Percentage

jeffj2h · Apr 15, 2012

Someone recently mentioned in a post that the APA Equalizer handicapping system is designed to bring each player closer to a 50% win rate. I wanted to see how true this is for my APA division. Using data from the APA web page I entered the SL, matches played, and matches won, for all players in my division. I filtered out players with 3 or fewer matches played, resulting in 68 players. The data was through week 13 of this Spring season.

Here are the average win percentages by SL:

SL2: 21% (n=7)
SL3: 47% (n=19)
SL4: 50% (n=10)
SL5: 58% (n=13)
SL6: 56% (n=13)
SL7: 58% (n=6) [65% with one low outlier removed; n=5]

I also attached a plot of SL vs win percentage. Each dot represents a player.

Only 7% of the players have a 75% or higher win percentage.
I would expect the SL2 win rate to be lower then the trend because many of these players are just learning one end of the cue from the other.
I would expect the SL7 win rate to be higher then the trend because some of these players are very good and can overcome any handicap. The SL7 win rate would be 65% if the lowest player (25% win rate) is removed.
Overall the Equalizer system does seem to move people closer to 50%. Although higher SL's still overcome the handicap, it seems logical that their win rates would be higher without the handicap.

RunoutJJ · Apr 15, 2012

Well Im an SL8 and in 20 matches Ive only lost one match and it was due to cheating. Well that and it got to me mentally and I let my opponent win by giving his cheating arse too many chances :angry:

The APA is for chumps and bangers and I will never play in any of their events ever again... I hate to say it but Im am way above and beyond any of players in that league.

Sorry to be a jerk or come off as conceded but it is what it is.. A league for cheaters cry babies and douchebags that dont want to go up a level... If they do they get kicked from the team.. The APA can piss off!!! :groucho:

jeffj2h · Apr 15, 2012

This is an 8-ball division

BTW, this data is for an 8-ball division

dr9ball · Apr 15, 2012

RunoutJJ said:
Well Im an SL8 and in 20 matches Ive only lost one match and it was due to cheating. Well that and it got to me mentally and I let my opponent win by giving his cheating arse too many chances :angry:

The APA is for chumps and bangers and I will never play in any of their events ever again... I hate to say it but Im am way above and beyond any of players in that league.

Sorry to be a jerk or come off as conceded but it is what it is.. A league for cheaters cry babies and douchebags that dont want to go up a level... If they do they get kicked from the team.. The APA can piss off!!! :groucho:

Since you say you are way above and beyond any of the players in that league, how do you match up with Ike Runnels? Not sure if Ike still plays APA but he used to and I think he still hits them pretty sporty.

RunoutJJ · Apr 15, 2012

dr9ball said:
Since you say you are way above and beyond any of the players in that league, how do you match up with Ike Runnels? Not sure if Ike still plays APA but he used to and I think he still hits them pretty sporty.

My goal in the APA was to absolutely crush every person I played and become a 9. It never happened because of other peoples crying and rule bending that made me give up on the league. Sure not ALL people in the APA are what I stated but my post was aimed (lol) more or less at this one individual!!

I dont know the guy that you mentioned but Im sure he's a 9 or a 7 in 8 ball. They are a lot fo great players in the APA but there are too many tits that I cant deal with.. Quit your fricking crying and get your arse kicked (I lost for at least for 5 years straight) to make you better!!! I paid my dues and had my right of passage. I didnt ask for weight I got in the box and battled. Sure I lost a ton but I won a few great matches I shouldnt have won because I had the heart to win!!!!

THAT is the main problem with the APA... No fricking heart in their system... Just a bunch of nannies that b+tch and complain about how the rules or spot isnt enough!!!

Bangers are bangers and I enjoy and take pride destroying egos!!! I don't shark or even talk to my opponents when I played. I said good shot when it was deserved and I got up and ran out in SILENCE when it was my turn.

It got to the point that even in warm up nobody would play me because they didnt want to lose!!!! How sad is that??? Pathetic if you ask me!!

dr9ball · Apr 15, 2012

RunoutJJ said:
My goal in the APA was to absolutely crush every person I played and become a 9. It never happened because of other peoples crying and rule bending that made me give up on the league. Sure not ALL people in the APA are what I stated but my post was aimed (lol) more or less at this one individual!!

I dont know the guy that you mentioned but Im sure he's a 9 or a 7 in 8 ball. They are a lot fo great players in the APA but there are too many tits that I cant deal with.. Quit your fricking crying and get your arse kicked (I lost for at least for 5 years straight) to make you better!!! I paid my dues and had my right of passage. I didnt ask for weight I got in the box and battled. Sure I lost a ton but I won a few great matches I shouldnt have won because I had the heart to win!!!!

THAT is the main problem with the APA... No fricking heart in their system... Just a bunch of nannies that b+tch and complain about how the rules or spot isnt enough!!!

Bangers are bangers and I enjoy and take pride destroying egos!!! I don't shark or even talk to my opponents when I played. I said good shot when it was deserved and I got up and ran out in SILENCE when it was my turn.

It got to the point that even in warm up nobody would play me because they didnt want to lose!!!! How sad is that??? Pathetic if you ask me!!

Fair enough. APA certainly isn't for everyone. I did like their Masters League though. No handicaps, little bickering.

RunoutJJ · Apr 15, 2012

I thought about the masters division but the nearest league is way too far from me...

Ron Moore · Apr 15, 2012

RunoutJJ said:
My goal in the APA was to absolutely crush every person I played and become a 9. It never happened because of other peoples crying and rule bending that made me give up on the league.

How does someone stop you from becoming a 9? You won 95% of your games the only thing that could hold you back from moving up is your innings. A '9' should average just a hair under 5 points per turn so 13 innings to get to 65. Was it taking you too long to get out? That is a 20% jump going from 8 to 9.

Just curious. I am on the borderline of going to 8 and that extra ten balls is looking like a boat anchor. An extra game on the 8-ball side would be much easier to fade if there were one.

Cory in DC · Apr 15, 2012

To me, your stats show the handicap system working pretty well. With one exception, even 2s have a meaningful (but <= 50%) chance to win a match.

Most notably, the distributions for skill levels 4-6 look very similar, which is what a good handicap system should do. 3s have a lot more variation, but that's to be expected given the shorter race and that it's a wide bucket (ranging from beginners that aren't quite bad enough to be a 2 up to almost-4s).

The sevens in your division are a little surprising. It's generally tough for a team to burn the points on a 7 if the 7 doesn't break 60%, but four of your six sevens are below that.

JJ -- You seem a little bitter. The quality varies a lot by where in DC you play. The Capitol Hill divisions have long shown signs of the problems you describe (but a lot of cool people too). I've always liked the Tuesday APA league at Bedrock a lot; if you don't like that, they have an in-house non-APA league on Mondays.

Cory

RunoutJJ · Apr 15, 2012

Cory in DC said:
To me, your stats show the handicap system working pretty well. With one exception, even 2s have a meaningful (but <= 50%) chance to win a match.

Most notably, the distributions for skill levels 4-6 look very similar, which is what a good handicap system should do. 3s have a lot more variation, but that's to be expected given the shorter race and that it's a wide bucket (ranging from beginners that aren't quite bad enough to be a 2 up to almost-4s).

The sevens in your division are a little surprising. It's generally tough for a team to burn the points on a 7 if the 7 doesn't break 60%, but four of your six sevens are below that.

JJ -- You seem a little bitter. The quality varies a lot by where in DC you play. The Capitol Hill divisions have long shown signs of the problems you describe (but a lot of cool people too). I've always liked the Tuesday APA league at Bedrock a lot; if you don't like that, they have an in-house non-APA league on Mondays.

Cory

I live in Stafford so like I said DC (masters) is way too far for me. 80 miles round trip to play APA?? Nah not worth it.

RunoutJJ · Apr 15, 2012

Ron Moore said:
How does someone stop you from becoming a 9? You won 95% of your games the only thing that could hold you back from moving up is your innings. A '9' should average just a hair under 5 points per turn so 13 innings to get to 65. Was it taking you too long to get out? That is a 20% jump going from 8 to 9.

Just curious. I am on the borderline of going to 8 and that extra ten balls is looking like a boat anchor. An extra game on the 8-ball side would be much easier to fade if there were one.

What stopped me from becoming a 9 is me not playing league anymore.. That's why..

I went from a 6 to an 8 in one week and then I quit a few months after that. I was rated so high that they never played me due to the 23 rule.

23 rule

nine_ball6970 · Apr 15, 2012

Looks to be fairly accurate to me. I am a 7 and have won 65% of my 8ball matches. I think I have played around 600 of them lifetime. I am kinda surprised the winning percentage would be close to accurate over only the span of one season across skill levels though. My first thought is there would be a wider variance but seems as if the system works as it should despite what all the haters say.

nine_ball6970 · Apr 15, 2012

Ron Moore said:
How does someone stop you from becoming a 9? You won 95% of your games the only thing that could hold you back from moving up is your innings. A '9' should average just a hair under 5 points per turn so 13 innings to get to 65. Was it taking you too long to get out? That is a 20% jump going from 8 to 9.

Just curious. I am on the borderline of going to 8 and that extra ten balls is looking like a boat anchor. An extra game on the 8-ball side would be much easier to fade if there were one.

I don't think you will have much of a problem going to an 8 unless it is mental. The extra ten balls might change the final score of a couple matches but usually won't change a win to a loss. If you just focus on making balls and not the score you should be fine.

Bob Jewett · Apr 15, 2012

I think what would be more interesting is an inter-level match table. It is possible (but somewhat unlikely) for all the matches in a season to be between players of equal level. How does a 4 do, on average, against a 7? I think it would take a lot more results than you have to find the percentages, though.

nine_ball6970 · Apr 15, 2012

Bob Jewett said:
I think what would be more interesting is an inter-level match table. It is possible (but somewhat unlikely) for all the matches in a season to be between players of equal level. How does a 4 do, on average, against a 7? I think it would take a lot more results than you have to find the percentages, though.

In the area I used to play in each player had a bar graph showing how they performed vs players of each skill level on their website. Granted I could only see my individual performance. I think the information would be fairly easy to obtain from a league operator if they were so inclined to give the information out.

brophog · Apr 15, 2012

This is a pretty good distribution, especially for 8 ball. Overall, you expect a slight margin in the favor of the higher SL player simply because of the limitations of handicapping. In 9 ball, two dissimilar SLs can be much more finely handicapped due to counting balls and not games.

To answer the remaining questions, it would be interesting to investigate the philosophy teams in your area have on matching up dissimilar SLs. It is likely that there is some symmetry in the community.

CK6Speed · Apr 15, 2012

I think unless you are one of those SL7 that should technically be ranked much higher if the APA skill level actually went higher, it's a pretty tough job to win all the time as an SL7. I have an SL7 on my team that used to play in open tournaments who is well above my speed and probably wins about 95+% of his matches. If he looses it's like once a season. I on the other hand am more toward 60% as an SL7. I do only play about 4-5 matches a season since only one of us SL7's can play on the same night due to the 23 rule.

If the APA systems is supposed to get you closer to 50% I think it works pretty well. As an SL6 I used to win about 75%. When I was an SL5 I used to win about 90%.

Banks · Apr 15, 2012

nine_ball6970 said:
Looks to be fairly accurate to me. I am a 7 and have won 65% of my 8ball matches. I think I have played around 600 of them lifetime. I am kinda surprised the winning percentage would be close to accurate over only the span of one season across skill levels though. My first thought is there would be a wider variance but seems as if the system works as it should despite what all the haters say.

Same thoughts here. The graph is nice and all, but doesn't show how they won. I've seen great runs by people that'll never run a rack again without regular practice and I've choked on some ridiculously easy shots myself. When I started posting here, I think I was a 5/6 or so. :thumbup:

jeffj2h · Apr 15, 2012

brophog said:
To answer the remaining questions, it would be interesting to investigate the philosophy teams in your area have on matching up dissimilar SLs. It is likely that there is some symmetry in the community.

My entire team is new to APA this season. I recall only one night where we had a matchup of players greater then 2 SL's apart. I've attached a graph which I believe shows that across the entire division. Since I know each players SL and their total points for the session, I can calculate the average SL of the players they beat. On the graph, each dot represents a player in the division. The X-axis shows the players SL. The Y-axis is how much, on average, their SL was higher then the players they beat. So, for example, if there is a dot for a SL5 player at 1.0 on the Y-axis, his average win was against SL4's. The graph is not perfect because players have changed SL's across the season. But it does seem to show that there are not a lot of matchup's >2SL apart. And it does seem to show that players are overcoming the handicap (more dots above the X-axis then below).

abie10 · Apr 15, 2012

Those are good stats...but isn't "The Equalizer" system for 9 ball?

APA Skill Level vs Win Percentage

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