626 is it legit?

krupa

The Dream Operator
Silver Member
Mosconi did it in an exhibition setting on one of the few if not only time he tried for a high run
It definitely wasn't the only time. He ran 309, thinking it was a new record only to find out that Irving Crane had already posted a 309.

I'm no expert, but I've read enough books about Mosconi to firmly believe that if someone had come out and run 575, he would have turned around and run 600. However, I don't think he cared enough to ever beat his own record; the only thing that mattered was that he was the record holder.
 

Cameron Smith

is kind of hungry...
Silver Member
I will say this: I think he is capable of doing it. But I also believe that there are a ton of red flags and suspicious elements to this claim. First he was live streaming for weeks if I remember but the one where he broke it was not streamed. I also believe like a day or 2 before the run he announced that he had found some "secret". Third the only way to see the video is in private screening where there is a section around 400 that is sped up for "time" purposes

The biggest issue I have is the actual number. He managed to run exactly 100 balls more than Mosconi. That is statistically incredibly unlikely but is fantastic from a marketing standpoint.

In universities they scrutinize data to see if the data is fake in doctoral thesis. People that fake data tend to use certain numbers and patterns that are extremely improbable to occur in a real testing environment and those thesis are thrown out.

To me there is way too many convenient coincidences for me to 100% believe it is real.

Plus everyone gleefully ignores Mosconi did it in an exhibition setting on one of the few if not only time he tried for a high run
He only live-streamed at bull shooters. He posted a couple of runs in the final month of the challenge, but he didn't live stream at any other time. My guess is that he opted not to live stream because he would immediately lose control of the video if he managed it live. I also don't think the number itself is as suspicious as it seems. Remember that Michael Eufemia ran 625 (an inversion of 526). In the sequence of racks, if my math is right, at 626 John (and Michael) are finishing up their end pattern and trying to get on the break shot. It's not at all uncommon for runs to end either at the break shot, or just before it, as they maneuver and get in trouble trying to navigate a potentially tricky end pattern.
 

Straightpool_99

I see dead balls
Silver Member
I will say this: I think he is capable of doing it. But I also believe that there are a ton of red flags and suspicious elements to this claim. First he was live streaming for weeks if I remember but the one where he broke it was not streamed. I also believe like a day or 2 before the run he announced that he had found some "secret". Third the only way to see the video is in private screening where there is a section around 400 that is sped up for "time" purposes

The biggest issue I have is the actual number. He managed to run exactly 100 balls more than Mosconi. That is statistically incredibly unlikely but is fantastic from a marketing standpoint.

In universities they scrutinize data to see if the data is fake in doctoral thesis. People that fake data tend to use certain numbers and patterns that are extremely improbable to occur in a real testing environment and those thesis are thrown out.

To me there is way too many convenient coincidences for me to 100% believe it is real.

Plus everyone gleefully ignores Mosconi did it in an exhibition setting on one of the few if not only time he tried for a high run
Well, you have certain principles like Bentons law, which adresses leading digits, but it wouldn't apply here. This is a single instance of an event (numerically speaking), and not a data set, as such as a spreadsheet of numbers. You could use each shot as a datum, but then it's still very difficult to use such analysis, as shot selection, technique, even racking is subject to personal preference and I doubt much analysis has been done on this subject previously. A possible method of analysis would be to look at all the attempted runs and use those as a data set. AFAIK those are not availabe as verifiable data, but using those, a probability of the run could be calculated. I think even if the likelyhood of the run being low, conclusively stating that this was fraud would be near impossible from those numbers alone, especially for a top player like JS. If I were the one claiming this run, it would be an entirely different matter.

If one were to analyze the video to look for anomalies, the obvious place to start would be to look for any slight movement of the pack prior to and during breakshots, (to check for possible re-racking and cuts) analyze the audio for breaks or repeating patterns, looking for strange movements by balls other than the cueball and the ball being played etc.

One would then have to have the entire, uncut video with original audio and the ability to rewind, pause, zoom etc. Naturally, one would have to believe the BCA had that kind of access, otherwise it would be very bold to declare the run legit. They didn't stand to gain much, but would be in big trouble if they were found to be fraudulent. There is no doubt in my mind that with a large enough sum of money and amount of time, a run such as this could be faked to such an extent that only a true expert in video manipulation would be able to see it. Does JS have access to that amount of money and expertise, and would it be cost effective? I doubt first and the latter is laughable.

Scientifically speaking, being sceptical of the legitimacy of a run which has been withheld from public view is perfectly defensible. I doubt very much that a scientific mindset is what is motivating the lead antagonists, however.
 
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AtLarge

AzB Gold Member
Gold Member
Silver Member
It definitely wasn't the only time. He ran 309, thinking it was a new record only to find out that Irving Crane had already posted a 309. ...
Those 309's were on 10-footers, too. But Willie's autobiography, pages 124-125, seems to indicate that Crane's record was known to Willie before he tied it.
 

krupa

The Dream Operator
Silver Member
Those 309's were on 10-footers, too. But Willie's autobiography, pages 124-125, seems to indicate that Crane's record was known to Willie before he tied it.

In "The Hustler and the Champ", R.A. Dyer claims Willie was thinking of Greenleaf's 277 (pages 160-161).

almost immediately word trickled from the crowd that Greenleaf's 277 was no longer the record but rather it was Crane's 309. "It couldn't have been 308," Willie later said ruefully. "It couldn't have been 310. It had to be exactly 309."

It's 'a minor point, really. johnnysd was talking about the unlikelihood of Schmidt running exactly 100 balls more than Mosconi and here we're talking about Mosconi and Crane running the exact same number of balls.
 

Pete H

Registered
It's 'a minor point, really. johnnysd was talking about the unlikelihood of Schmidt running exactly 100 balls more than Mosconi and here we're talking about Mosconi and Crane running the exact same number of balls.
Running exactly 100 balls more had just a bit lower probability than running 99 balls more and a bit higher probability than 101 balls more. Not taking the mental aspect into equation obviously.
 

Dan Harriman

One of the best in 14.1
Silver Member
He only live-streamed at bull shooters. He posted a couple of runs in the final month of the challenge, but he didn't live stream at any other time. My guess is that he opted not to live stream because he would immediately lose control of the video if he managed it live. I also don't think the number itself is as suspicious as it seems. Remember that Michael Eufemia ran 625 (an inversion of 526). In the sequence of racks, if my math is right, at 626 John (and Michael) are finishing up their end pattern and trying to get on the break shot. It's not at all uncommon for runs to end either at the break shot, or just before it, as they maneuver and get in trouble trying to navigate a potentially tricky end pattern.
The number would not be suspicious - had he released unedited footage to general public - that has not been available for two years - after the announcement. If j.s. wants to tell a fish story - then he will need to keep Mosconi's name out of his entangled line. This is the backlash of not providing solid evidence of his Claim. To any that may wonder why there is no longer a big apple Dragon promo 14.1 tournament anymore - see the c.w./predcue/j.s. theater production. I really think their little theater show = the j.s./c.w pred farewell tour for 14.1.
 
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johnnysd

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Running exactly 100 balls more had just a bit lower probability than running 99 balls more and a bit higher probability than 101 balls more. Not taking the mental aspect into equation obviously.

Not really true but believe what you will. Two 309s is not as suspicious because both ended after the break shot. I just believe this screams of marketing, and is very suspect. Besides, didn't Cranfield have supposedly a few runs in the 700s during practice? Plus I think Ursetti (sp?) claimed he saw Mosconi run more than 526 in practice (with lunch in between). Mosconi's was in a match albeit an exhibition witnessed by fans not close associates and business partners of his. I do not think he did it. Just my opinion. And the number is very suspect. I stand by that.
 

SomeDeadGuy

Member
This reminds me of Maris breaking Babe Ruth's record and having the only asterisk next to it in the record books. 626 is 626. The guy spent his whole life climbing the Mount Everest of Billiards reached only by arguably the greatest player to ever live. Maybe he’s not the best, maybe the conditions are different, etc., etc, but the fact remains, for that day, he broke a 60 year old record and left a standard that may never again be achieved. Instead of trying to tarnishing this amazing accomplishment, as billiard players, we should ask the world to join us in celebrating a fine, fine player who spent his life chasing the impossible and succeeded.
 

Dan Harriman

One of the best in 14.1
Silver Member
OK, here you go -- to me his effort was not unlike Kipchoge recently breaking the 2 hour marathon mark.

Kipchoge, a fabulous runner, used every trick in the book, including a flat, straight course; a cool, windless day; specialized shoes unreleased to the public from Nike; and a team of runners who ran in front and in back of him to reduce drag, with laser point markers projected on to the road from a pace car to show the way.

All that's fine I suppose... if you don't care about the spirit of the record.

So whaddahey. Let's get some guy to do a run, with a wide-mouth table, polishing the balls every rack, and with shaved slates that allow an OB to track into the pocket no matter how poorly hit. Or how about a down hill marathon?

Still the record, right?

Lou Figueroa
I agree that the two hour barrier for the Marathon has not been surpassed, Kipchoge is a Champion - although this was not a traditional race format. Seems like there were quite a few obscure sporting claims' made during the medical elite shut down/cv-19. I guess these hollywood types never fail to try and take advantage of public emergency, maybe they saw the phony shut down would help as a distraction - while they try and pass their lies into the history books. So yes your right on this one Lou, it will be an uphill battle in the real History books - in relation to Kipchoge or bca/csi/j.s. 626 CLAIM. They both seem to have bouncy shoes, in the end gimicks will not overcome the truth. They can't always have some big entity blocking the wind - or the truth. It seems they featured a dense rotation of professional pacesetters - so Kipchoge's laser sights at the two hour barrier - was similar to the theater show. Lights and lasers - hence the theatrical production effects - is not not going to be recognized as an 'official new world record'. Nike says 'just do it' - I think they might want to change there slogan - any way they choose to bounce it around - Mosconi's 526 Stands over the corrupt sports history scavengers.
 
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Dan Harriman

One of the best in 14.1
Silver Member
Dear Mr. moderator - I request 4 this thread to be taken down, 1 thread is enough when dealing with corruption - related to accountable Pocket Billiard Adjudication - or the attempted theft of Willie Mosconi's Official 526 World record. Thank you.
 
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