A shot in the 14.1 Warmup tournament

[Steve Lipsky]

Below is a shot I faced late in my game against Thorsten. The score was something like 81-71 me, in a race to 100. We had both missed some very uncharacteristic shots in the middle of the game, though the early innings were decent. (And yes, any time Thorsten misses it's a little more uncharacteristic than me doing so )

I don't remember how I got to this spectacularly bad position, but there it was. While the next rack was being prepared, I thought about my options here. Obviously, there were only two:

1) I had a great angle to play the 1 in the side and call safe, leaving him downtable. Please note: there was no way to play this shot and not have the cueball roll downtable. I had no option of holding the cueball on the rack-side of the table to play an effective side-rack safety.

2) I could play the 1 in the corner, with speed. The shot - though very unorthodox, to be sure - was laying very well. In other words, I knew this shot would be very high-yielding. The rack would explode.

I include the analysis that the break shot would be high-yielding because I felt there was no vig of me making the ball but not having a shot.

I chose, fairly quickly, to shoot away. I felt that trying to engage in a safety battle with Mr. Hohmann would be, while not fruitless, certainly not in my favor. I also estimated that my chances of making the shot were roughly 1 in 2, and that if I did make the shot, I would almost certainly win the game. Yes, I needed to get into the next rack, but I expected a wide-open spread, and whenever you can get that, you usually wind up with another high-yielding break ball (or three) to choose from.

I missed. He ran out. However, although I heard a few people in the room questioning my decision, I had no regrets. If I played safe, lost the safe battle, and then the game, I'd be sick knowing I passed up a 1-in-2 to beat a world champion.

Finally, I just want to let you all know what a true pleasure it was to play Thorsten. He is a total gentleman, and even though he did not have his best game against me, he handled himself with the utmost class. He is such a nice guy that you almost can't help but root for him, even while you are playing him!

So... what would you guys have done in this spot?

- Steve

CueTable Help

 

[alinco]

Shoot away!

I've pondered this question many times myself. My offense-minded thinking is this:

Playing a lesser player - shoot because they will only run so many balls before missing and you'll be back at the table.

Playing a better player - shoot because they'll win the safety battle with better knowledge and execution. You'd hate bypassing a 50% chance of beating a world champion.

The best offense is a strong confident offense!
Andy

 

[JayBates]

i agree with alinco. considering the circumstances, this isnt a big gambling match, this is a warm up tournament, and a chance to beat a world champion. now if it were in the finals of a tournament, or such, i would ellect to play safe. taking this shot before the tournament is also a good way to judge how well your playing. you said you missed the shot, do you know why? horrible mistakes are ones you learn nothing from, good mistakes are ones you learn from. regardless, kudos on giving Hohmann a close game.
Jay

 

[selftaut]

refering to the old saying "No time like the present", with a chance to win I would have fired away as well and most likely missed it as well .

 

[Steve Lipsky]

Playing a lesser player - shoot because they will only run so many balls before missing and you'll be back at the table.

Andy, this piece of advice works from a general standpoint. But given the situation I just described, my opponent needs less than 30 balls. You don't have to be a world-beater to get out from there, especially when you start with a wide open table.

There is no way I would play this shot against anyone at B-level or at A-level, for example.

- Steve

 

[Steve Lipsky]

i agree with alinco. considering the circumstances, this isnt a big gambling match, this is a warm up tournament, and a chance to beat a world champion. now if it were in the finals of a tournament, or such, i would ellect to play safe.
Jay

Hi Jay. I agree about learning from your misses, and also want to thank you for the nice words.

I do take issue with your above statement, however. It's either the right shot or the wrong shot, and I was trying to take the right shot for all situations. If you are saying I took the right shot simply because the game didn't mean anything, then I think you feel I took the wrong shot . That is fine, but we should call it what it is.

- Steve

 

[VKJ]

Exactly what you did. I was in my book the right shot.

 

[VKJ]

As a follow up let me say that since I've watched you play for years, I feel you have a very strong offensive game, in short your always a high run threat. I don't know if your hitting them strong right now or not but in general not only can you pocket strong your a strong classic pattern player (at any stage of the game) and you have strong rack reading skills. I'm not saying this just to compliment you. The items I mention all bode well for you doing what you did.

If the angle of the shot you show was more severe or if the cue had to go first into a rail then into the rack then the question mark gets a lot bigger but with the shot you had I say you were right on.

I have seen many top players shoot that angle shot in top flight matches mainly because its not super severe and as you say the cue is going to do major damage to the rack.

Obviously, the safety play of the one ball in the side and bringing the cue down to the end rail is an option but that somewhat goes back the type of overall game a player likes to play.

Plus lets not forget that you went down shooting. You had the world champ on the ropes and you went for it.

No shame in that.

Just curious, did you ask Thorsten about this?

 

[Steve Lipsky]

Just curious, did you ask Thorsten about this?

Thanks VKJ. In response to this question, no, sometimes I don't ask top players about shots like this when it's against them. I don't think I'm likely to get a true answer because they're often too humble to acknowledge that they'll definitely outmove me in a safe game.

It's a hard thing to say to someone, "Well, you have no chance in a safe battle, so you should have shot away at this. It was definitely your best move."

One of the reasons I feel confident in my decision is my old rule of looking at it from my opponent's perspective. If I were Thorsten and I saw my lesser-skilled opponent shooting at this break shot, I would definitely not like it. If I saw him play safe, I'd be loving it. So, if my opponent doesn't like what I'm doing, I must be doing something good.

- Steve

 

[3andstop]

I'm chicken, I'da thinned the 6.

 

[Neil]

..................

 

[TX Poolnut]

I guess it depends on what I want the cue to do after rack contact and where I would have to stroke the cue ball. I think this shot requires no english. Just stay on the center axis and MAKE THE BALL.

Add the chance to beat Hohmann and I'd have swung away too.

It's better to regret something you did, rather than something you didn't.

 

[Mike_Mason]

I'd go for it...

In fact there is no way I would pass up this shot...

Your thoughts on being an underdog in a safety battle are legit but that is not the reason for my choice...

I just see this as a natural angle shot...fairly close to a classic break shot...maybe have to draw a bit...the difference being the distance from the hit to the pocket...the angle is about the same...same angle - same great chance of making the shot...and breaking the rack and continuing your run...and probably victory.

I have no doubt that you made the right choice...I'm just sorry that you missed the shot...and did you say that you 'rushed it'?...

Taking the shot shows an aggressiveness that marks a champion...imo the safety play would show a lack of confidence in your ability to control a game...and might make you shy away from other opportunities...etc etc...

You did the right thing...you just missed it...tough luck and better luck next time...you can still take pride in going toe to toe with a world champ...my congrats...

Mike

 

[MOJOE]

No doubt what I would do either, Steve. I tend to play a bit aggressively too, some would say too much, but that is just my style.

Without a doubt, I would have gone for the shot as well. I like my odds of making the ball a majority of the time but I would not consider it a flyer.

Peace, JBK

 

[Williebetmore]

post deleted

 

[VKJ]

In fact there is no way I would pass up this shot...

Your thoughts on being an underdog in a safety battle are legit but that is not the reason for my choice...

I just see this as a natural angle shot...fairly close to a classic break shot...maybe have to draw a bit...the difference being the distance from the hit to the pocket...the angle is about the same...same angle - same great chance of making the shot...and breaking the rack and continuing your run...and probably victory.

I have no doubt that you made the right choice...I'm just sorry that you missed the shot...and did you say that you 'rushed it'?...

Taking the shot shows an aggressiveness that marks a champion...imo the safety play would show a lack of confidence in your ability to control a game...and might make you shy away from other opportunities...etc etc...

You did the right thing...you just missed it...tough luck and better luck next time...you can still take pride in going toe to toe with a world champ...my congrats...

Mike

I completly agree. Very well said on all points.

 

[Williebetmore]

I had no option of holding the cueball on the rack-side of the table to play an effective side-rack safety.


So... what would you guys have done in this spot?

- Steve

Steve,
I'm somewhat surprised that anyone would criticize you for this particular sequence.

While I am no world-beater, I have discussed similar situations at length with Danny D. (who is definitely a scholar of the old-school game). The key element here is your inability to get whitey into position to play a side-rack safety.

If you could have gotten whitey to that side area (I'll attach a diagram), then your chances of winning the resulting safety battle are about 80%, even against a world beater. If you judge your make percentage on the break shot at 80% or better, then it STILL is a better shot than the side of the rack safety (it's hard for me to believe you couldn't make this shot at least 80% - YOU SHOOT STRONG). Some Monday morning quarterback might quibble about that option; but your shotmaking is superior, and the reward of the shot is great.

In this instance, you couldn't get into side rack position. The safeties available offer you only a very slim advantage. Send him down table and he will be just roll whitey around into the back of the stack; where you will have the advantage of having him on the first foul; but basically it's still a toss-up as to who will win the battle.

I also totally agree with your assessment of altering strategy according to the level of your opponent (especially in the end game). If you promise not to tell anyone; I will admit that if I totally butcher the end of a rack in my games with our local world-beater, I will purposely forego attempting to get on a break shot, and instead will plan a sequence to end with the safety below. It drives my opponent crazy; but I still win my fair share of safety battles from that position (it is the ONLY position from which I usually win a safety battle; all other safety battles I lose about 4 out of 5).

There are 2 pages to the diagram.

CueTable Help

 

[Steve Lipsky]

An excellent analysis, Willie. I must admit to not being as familiar with this safety as it sounds you are, though of course I do play it from time to time. I have two questions concerning it:

1) Do you aim to hit the 13 exactly full, or maybe 3/4 on the 13, 1/4 on the 3, if that makes sense?

2) Can you really play it as far uptable as the outer edge of your gray triangle? I probably would have considered that too risky, and chickened out going behind the rack.

It's sad how much time I've devoted to this game, and I just haven't taken the time to study this very important safety to an extent it definitely deserves.

And thank you for the replies everyone; they have been very informative!

- Steve

 

[sjm]

Below is a shot I faced late in my game against Thorsten. The score was something like 81-71 me, in a race to 100. We had both missed some very uncharacteristic shots in the middle of the game, though the early innings were decent. (And yes, any time Thorsten misses it's a little more uncharacteristic than me doing so )

I don't remember how I got to this spectacularly bad position, but there it was. While the next rack was being prepared, I thought about my options here. Obviously, there were only two:

1) I had a great angle to play the 1 in the side and call safe, leaving him downtable. Please note: there was no way to play this shot and not have the cueball roll downtable. I had no option of holding the cueball on the rack-side of the table to play an effective side-rack safety.

2) I could play the 1 in the corner, with speed. The shot - though very unorthodox, to be sure - was laying very well. In other words, I knew this shot would be very high-yielding. The rack would explode.

I include the analysis that the break shot would be high-yielding because I felt there was no vig of me making the ball but not having a shot.

I chose, fairly quickly, to shoot away. I felt that trying to engage in a safety battle with Mr. Hohmann would be, while not fruitless, certainly not in my favor. I also estimated that my chances of making the shot were roughly 1 in 2, and that if I did make the shot, I would almost certainly win the game. Yes, I needed to get into the next rack, but I expected a wide-open spread, and whenever you can get that, you usually wind up with another high-yielding break ball (or three) to choose from.

I missed. He ran out. However, although I heard a few people in the room questioning my decision, I had no regrets. If I played safe, lost the safe battle, and then the game, I'd be sick knowing I passed up a 1-in-2 to beat a world champion.

Finally, I just want to let you all know what a true pleasure it was to play Thorsten. He is a total gentleman, and even though he did not have his best game against me, he handled himself with the utmost class. He is such a nice guy that you almost can't help but root for him, even while you are playing him!

So... what would you guys have done in this spot?

- Steve

CueTable Help

I'm struggling to put this together, Steve. If outside draw on the one in the side doesn't allow you to play onto the second ball safe on the thirteen, which would make you a clear favoritie in the safety battle to follow, you must have had a decent amount of angle on the one in the side, certainly more than the diagram would suggest. If this was the case, what would stop you from pocketing the one in the side and playing shape off the top rail for a front of the rack second ball safety on either the thirteen or the eleven? From my sense of things, there must have been a way to achieve this result.

Still, if there was no possible way to play aggressive defense, you made the right decision for sure! Fire away unless aggressive defense is available....it's definitely not a good time to play passive defense.

 

[Steve Lipsky]

I'm struggling to put this together, Steve. If outside draw on the one in the side doesn't allow you to play onto the second ball safe on the thirteen, which would make you a clear favoritie in the safety battle to follow, you must have had a decent amount of angle on the one in the side, certainly more than the diagram would suggest. If this was the case, what would stop you from pocketing the one in the side and playing shape off the top rail for a front of the rack second ball safety on either the thirteen or the eleven? From my sense of things, there must have been a way to achieve this result.

Still, if there was no possible way to play aggressive defense, you made the right decision for sure! Fire away unless aggressive defense is available....it's definitely not a good time to play passive defense.

It's funny... I was struggling with the diagram also, because I was trying to figure out a way for it to display what I was facing! I was having quite a bit of difficulty with it. There was a lot of angle, moreso than I felt comfortable with to hit the 1 with a ton of outside draw to hold it for the safe.

As far as going off the top rail and then back to play the safe, I definitely did not think of that. Now that I am (thanks to you!), I think I will reserve that play for a situation where an offensive shot is clearly too wild too attempt. In this case, with a roughly 50% make percentage on the break, I think I still have to go with that against Thorsten. While that safety is super-effective, he is way too smart a player to sell out to it. In other words, if I really get him, he's going to two-foul to a very tricky position for me. If I still don't like it, and foul back, and he doesn't like it either, he's just going to take the third and re-break. I don't have to like it against him, winning 79-53, but having to execute from his break.

But thank you for suggesting the off-the-end-rail solution. I will definitely add that to my future shot-selection, except of course when I am playing you . Can't beat you with your own shot!

- Steve