Roy Steffensen said:
Before even clicking on the link, I knew it would say the following"
" then, get this, Alex wins the next 6 racks to take the match down in an hour and 46 minutes. "
I don't know why the poster wrote "then, get this" as though putting on a 5-7 pack is surprising as the reason why one or the other relatively evenly matched opponents wins in the winner breaks format.
Of all the winner breaks matches I've seen over my 40 years sweating and playing the game, I would guess that AT LEAST 70 percent of winner breaks ahead sets are won by putting on packs while the other player...often of world champion status, sits there and watches...unable to COMPETE for the rest of the so-called match.
The "pack factor" is less in races to 11 or so only because it often takes more than 20 racks before one player cathes a gear and PLENTY of luck to end up with a makable ball after the break. But even in races to 11, I'll bet that 60% are won with 3-4 packs being shot sometime during the race.
Anyone have any statistics on the "pack factor" in winner breaks tournament play?
Personally, I think players at the championship level are unwise to play winner breaks.
I either of the players TRULY thinks he has the best game, then he should want a GUARANTEE that he will have a turn at the table every other rack...period.
As SVB just learned, any other strategy just gives the lesser opponent a chance to put his lights out while he sits there defenseless.
I am NOT saying I think SVB is better than Alex and I am a MAJOR Alex fan. What I am saying is I think SVB thinks he is better or he wouldn't be gambling with him.
That being the case, why in the WORLD give the opponent ANY chance to catch a gear and drill your nuts???????
One could argue that SVB had just as much a chance to put a pack on Alex and that is true. But it STILL gets down to who gets the
luckiest first and gets the opening shot AND the layouts that permit 6 or 7 packs.
If you think you are the better player...the CORRECT PLAY is to ELIMINATE as much luck from the match as possible.
Conversely, if you think you are NOT the better player then you SHOULD play winner breaks.
Finally, if you are WAY the better player and are giving weight then you should play winner breaks...AND ahead sets and give the wild 7 to any chump who thinks that will do him any good.
If you need the 7 ball, then you're not running 8 balls consistently and are a 5-1 underdog to EVER run 6 or 7 racks. So, at any time that the shortstop or better player gets to 4 ahead, he is the favorite to win but when the banger gets to 4 ahead, odds are the match will go back to even before long.
Winner breaks ahead sets are just a hustle move in weighted matches and I am AMAZED that so many veteran players and rail birds don't understand that.
Just my $0.02.
Jim
