Before We Buy the Hurricane Analogy....

Colin Colenso

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Before we can accept KT's description of a hurricane analogy, as some shock, unpredictable incident, that messed up pro-forma valuations of the IPT, we need some more information.

btw: Some have said that the legislation that passed was not a shock. But it certainly was. It sent stocks tumbling. These stocks would have been discounted significantly prior to the announcement if it had been expected.

But the information that we need to believe, is how can such a high value be placed on the capability to add online gaming to the IPT mix?

Now none of us are experts in this field, but we have speculated on a few mechanisms.

1. Exposure: Obviously gaming sponsors get value out of being partnered to the sport, but title sponsorship from other types of companies can offer similar amounts. The value for being able to add a gaming sponsor to the list of sponsors is probably in the range of 300,000 to 1MM per event for the kind of exposure the IPT has been getting. Just a guess based on some sponsorship charge estimates for past World Pool and World snooker events.

2. The other possible mechanism that has been suggested is exclusive rights to gaming on the events. But as far as I know, there is no way to stop other gaming companies from offering betting on the events. But through sponsorship or partnership, exclusivity could be granted to on website coverage links to the betting for this partner and through venue exclusivity of more detailed and real time results, allowing the partner to offer more betting features and to hold bets longer. This would be a significant advantage over competitors.

Now how much all this could be worth is hard to estimate. But it's hard to imagine it could be worth more than 10-20 million a year total. One would have to know progressive estimates of value from inside professionals Also factored in must be estimates of online membership numbers, viewership, expected number of events etc.

Also, perhaps there are other synergies that we're not aware of. And perhaps this information is too secretive to be disclosed.

But if this hurricane really did hit and hurt the IPT, then one would like to know the nature of that hurricane and it's real impact on the business, because I suspect, that people will not be convinced by this explanation of an unexpected, unpredictable disaster befalling the IPT, which compares the IPT to an innocent victim, much the same as business owners in New Orleans.

Without people believing that such a disaster took place on the pro-forma valuations of the IPT, then naturally the intended purpose of rallying the troups and their sympathies behind the IPT will likely fall short.

So again the catch-cry will continue, that being for more information, and information that both makes sense and is provable.

A Solution?
Perhaps an independent assessment of the books and records of prior business discussions and operations. That independent counsel could confirm such probabilities to players and supporters, without necessarily exposing sensitive business information.

Colin
 
Colin Colenso said:
Before we can accept KT's description of a hurricane analogy, as some shock, unpredictable incident, that messed up pro-forma valuations of the IPT, we need some more information.

Snipped a bunch of stuff I couldn't understand...

Colin


Damn you're smart. :) But can someone explain this to me?

--Chili
 
Chilifide said:
Damn you're smart. :) But can someone explain this to me?

--Chili
Basically it means:

Let someone that both parties agree to, look at evidence that the IPT has, that suggests there was a reasonable probability that Mr.Ho or other buyers were going to invest rather large amounts, based on their expectations of the value of the IPT.

And that the new legislation did in fact cause serious damage to those value estimates. And that this legislation was not expected to occur before it actually did.

Colin
 
November 18, 2005: H.R. 4411 (Internet Gambling Prohibition and Enforcement Act) introduced.

Nov 30- Dec 4, 2005: IPT King of the Hill takes place. Players paid.

February 16, 2006: H. R. 4777 (Internet Gambling Prohibition Act) introduced.

July 1, 2006: H. R. 4411 passed House, amended.

July 10, 2006: H. R. 4777 is reported to the House, amended.
H. Res. 907: Providing for consideration of the bill (H.R. 4411) to prevent the use of certain payment instruments, credit cards, and fund transfers for unlawful Internet gambling.

July 11, 2006: Republican leaders decided to fold H.R. 4777 into H. R. 4411 for floor action on July 13, 2006.

July 13, 2006: After H. R. 4777 (Internet Gambling Prohibition Act) is folded into H. R. 4411 (Internet Gambling Prohibition and Enforcement Act), the amended H. R. 4411 is read the second and third time on the floor and placed on Senate Legislative Calendar for vote. The bill is now officially approved by the House of Representatives and must be voted on by the Senate.

July 22-30: IPT NA Open takes place. Players are paid.

September 2-10: IPT World Open takes place. Players are not paid.
The bill has not become law yet. How can Trudeau say a bill that hasn’t even been sent to the President is the reason the players didn’t get paid? If it came out of nowhere, he still wouldn’t have known about it at this point.


September 14, 2006: This bill passed in the Senate by roll call vote. The totals were: 98 Ayes, 0 Nays, 2 Present/Not Voting.

September 22, 2006: Congress has approved the Act and it is placed on the Union Calendar for Executive Branch consideration.

October 13, 2006: President Bush signs the law making it Public Law 109-347. The Act is title VIII of a completely unrelated bill, the Safe Port Act, HR 4954, dealing with port security. He makes no mention of title VIII as he signs the new law.

The law doesn’t make online gaming illegal in the US anymore than it already was. The reason Party Poker and other stocks tanked was because of speculation, not because of this law.

BTW, as a result of his company filing for Chapter 11 Protection, in May of 2005 Donald Trump relinquished his CEO position.

I hope the readers of this forum are clear about KT’s newest round of BS.
 
Colin Colenso said:
Basically it means:

Let someone that both parties agree to, look at evidence that the IPT has, that suggests there was a reasonable probability that Mr.Ho or other buyers were going to invest rather large amounts, based on their expectations of the value of the IPT.

And that the new legislation did in fact cause serious damage to those value estimates. And that this legislation was not expected to occur before it actually did.

Colin

Thank you, kind sir.

--Chili
 
While a US ban on online gambling would reduce profits for Mr Ho. With all the Asian and European IPT players I think he would still get plenty of action from overseas gamblers. My guess is that he still wants the IPT but not at the price Kevin wanted. We could just be waiting through the price haggling between Mr Ho and KT.
 
Colin Colenso said:
Before we can accept KT's description of a hurricane analogy, as some shock, unpredictable incident, that messed up pro-forma valuations of the IPT, we need some more information.

btw: Some have said that the legislation that passed was not a shock. But it certainly was. It sent stocks tumbling. These stocks would have been discounted significantly prior to the announcement if it had been expected.

But the information that we need to believe, is how can such a high value be placed on the capability to add online gaming to the IPT mix?

Now none of us are experts in this field, but we have speculated on a few mechanisms.

1. Exposure: Obviously gaming sponsors get value out of being partnered to the sport, but title sponsorship from other types of companies can offer similar amounts. The value for being able to add a gaming sponsor to the list of sponsors is probably in the range of 300,000 to 1MM per event for the kind of exposure the IPT has been getting. Just a guess based on some sponsorship charge estimates for past World Pool and World snooker events.

2. The other possible mechanism that has been suggested is exclusive rights to gaming on the events. But as far as I know, there is no way to stop other gaming companies from offering betting on the events. But through sponsorship or partnership, exclusivity could be granted to on website coverage links to the betting for this partner and through venue exclusivity of more detailed and real time results, allowing the partner to offer more betting features and to hold bets longer. This would be a significant advantage over competitors.

Now how much all this could be worth is hard to estimate. But it's hard to imagine it could be worth more than 10-20 million a year total. One would have to know progressive estimates of value from inside professionals Also factored in must be estimates of online membership numbers, viewership, expected number of events etc.

Also, perhaps there are other synergies that we're not aware of. And perhaps this information is too secretive to be disclosed.

But if this hurricane really did hit and hurt the IPT, then one would like to know the nature of that hurricane and it's real impact on the business, because I suspect, that people will not be convinced by this explanation of an unexpected, unpredictable disaster befalling the IPT, which compares the IPT to an innocent victim, much the same as business owners in New Orleans.

Without people believing that such a disaster took place on the pro-forma valuations of the IPT, then naturally the intended purpose of rallying the troups and their sympathies behind the IPT will likely fall short.

So again the catch-cry will continue, that being for more information, and information that both makes sense and is provable.

A Solution?
Perhaps an independent assessment of the books and records of prior business discussions and operations. That independent counsel could confirm such probabilities to players and supporters, without necessarily exposing sensitive business information.

Colin


The problem is, everything said may or may not be true, it doesn't matter. Where is the funding that was supposedly there is the first place? That's all that matters, that's why you played. If we are to believe him now, then there never was any funding by him or anybody else just a gamble it may come.

The whole thing was on paper to begin with and the seed money he put in from his Natural Cures company was all they ever planed on, or plan on, adding. He is as much as saying, there will be no more money at least not from his pocket. So the reasons or excuses don't matter to the players, who cares why, just is he going to pay or not?

You know, if you just look at this thread, he has got you talking about everything now other then the money that he owes you.
He has you actually trying to rationalize a way to accept his excuses. This guy is good I have to say.
 
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macguy said:
The problem is, everything said may or may not be true, it doesn't matter. Where is the funding that was supposedly there is the first place? That's all that matters, that's why you played. If we are to believe him now, then there never was any funding by him or anybody else just a gamble it may come.

The whole thing was on paper to begin with and the seed money he put in from his Natural Cures company was all they ever planed on, or plan on, adding. He is as much as saying, there will be no more money at least not from his pocket. So the reasons or excuses don't matter to the players, who cares why, just is he going to pay or not?

You know, if you just look at this thread, he has got you talking about everything now other then the money that he owes you.
He has you actually trying to rationalize a way to accept his excuses. This guy is good I have to say.
Macguy,
I was just addressing this issue directly, to focus this part of the debate.

Clearly other important issues need to be settled if there is to be regained wide support. And moving forward, if one is to speculate on such a possibility, clear and proven guarantees would need to be offered for each promise.

Colin
 
macguy said:
The problem is, everything said may or may not be true, it doesn't matter. Where is the funding that was supposedly there is the first place? That's all that matters, that's why you played. If we are to believe him now, then there never was any funding by him or anybody else just a gamble it may come.

The whole thing was on paper to begin with and the seed money he put in from his Natural Cures company was all they ever planed on, or plan on, adding. He is as much as saying, there will be no more money at least not from his pocket. So the reasons or excuses don't matter to the players, who cares why, just is he going to pay or not?

You know, if you just look at this thread, he has got you talking about everything now other then the money that he owes you.
He has you actually trying to rationalize a way to accept his excuses. This guy is good I have to say.

Mcguy, Thank you very much.

I've asked this question until I am turning blue.

This whole mess was to have been funded by him personally and Natural Cures .Com. The money was to be escrowed by a National Accounting Firm.

At this point, the money is garunteed, the prize fund is posted, and who gives a hoot in hell what this ego maniac has to say everyone over 15 years old has figured out what he is and doesn't care, PLAY POOL!!!!!

Suddenly after the 3rd tournament, STIFFED. STIFFED. Now at this point, let the REAL bs begin and I won't even go into all the smokhouse crap, but comunication ceases. The phone lines are down.

During the interview with BD, he was let totally off the hook. Asked about the money being escrowed, he side stepped and stiff armed like Jerry Rice and was let off the hook. His answer, "escrow can mean a lot of things".
Sir, let me explain what I meant, " did your pathological lyin ass post the money or not?"

Now he has side stepped again. He has everybody on chill as far as lawsuits and uniting and guessing as to whether he is legit. He is trying to come off as a victim. He lost 10 million? Hell, he predicted that. Where is the rest of{Mcguy says} the SEED MONEY?

In the words of the respected Proffessor Gilmer, "In God we trust, ALL OTHERS MUST POST"!!!!!!!!!
 
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