Eric,
I agree with you concerning the value of running random layouts, but I still think BU Exam II does a decent job of measuring run-out skills (in a consistent, non-random way, and within a reasonable amount of time).
Of course people can get better with practice, but that's the whole point. However, regardless of how much you practice, you still need excellent run-out skills to be able to score well on the line-of-balls run-out drill (S1), the rail-cut-shot run-out drill (S2), and the 9-ball and 8-ball pattern run-out drills (S3 and S4), especially in the Doctorate version of the Exam II. Even if you know ahead of time what might be a good run-out pattern, you still need the skill to be able to execute the plan and have the ability to change the plan (sometimes multiple times) when things don't work out well (... which is likely if you don't have good run-out skills). Also, a player who has excellent run-out skills would also probably do well on all of the other BU exam drills (in both Exam I and Exam II), because all of the skills tested are important to running out among a wide range of random layouts (e.g., sometimes during run-outs you need to stop the ball nearly perfectly, or draw back a controlled distance, or follow forward a controlled amount to a small target area, know which direction the CB will head fairly accurately with different amounts of top or bottom spin, control speed and ball travel distance well on stun shots, play position off one or more rails to a fairly tight target zone, etc., etc., etc.). The BU exams also assess skills that don't come up often or at all in the "playing the ghost" drills (e.g., safety play, kicks, banks, and jumps).
I suggest that everybody who has submitted BU scores also try the 10-ball "playing the ghost" drill so we can see how well a practiced BU score compares to an average "playing the ghost" score. I recommend doing the ghost drill 3 times (10 racks of 10-ball each) and using the middle value (median) of the three 10-rack scores to help deal with the inherent (and sometimes extreme) variability.
I ran the drill four times last night on my 8' table with generous pockets and got scores of 60, 43, 63, and 54. If I throw out the first, counting it as practice, and take the middle value of the last three, that gives me a 54, which rates me as "B+," which is probably close to accurate. Although, my high score (63), would put me at "A+," which is definitely not accurate, and the "43" would put me at "C+," which is honestly insulting. A better test might be to do the ghost drill 10 or many more times, taking the middle (median) value, but not everybody has that much time or patience.
BTW, with the 43, I got very unlucky a few times where the 2-ball or 3-ball was hidden or didn't have a pocket, with no reasonable break-out, combo, carom, or kiss available on the ball-in-hand 1-ball shot. With the 63, I thought I played at an average level but I was fortunate to have a good layout on every rack (except one where I scratched and made 2 balls o the break, with no easy way to break out the spotted cluster). With the 54, I thought I played much better, but I got unlucky a few times (with clusters or blocked pockets with no easy combo). Anyway, it was good practice and I strongly recommend it to others.
For everybody who has posted BU scores, please try 3 or more runs of the 10-ball ghost drill and report your middle score and rating so we can see how it compares to your well-practice BU rating. I will add these scores and ratings to the BU rating list for comparison and correlation purposes (as "Exam III").
Eric, have you tried the exams yet? If so, please post your scores along with your 10-ball ghost "Exam III" score. You seem to be a good player. I will be curious to see what you think after going through the process and making the comparison.
Thanks again for your input and suggestions,
Dave
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