Break Stats -- Derby City 10-Foot 10-Ball, Jan. 2015

AtLarge

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Here are some break statistics from the 2015 Diamond Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge streamed by Accu-Stats from the Derby City Classic at the Horseshoe Southern Indiana in Elizabeth, Indiana. This was an invitational 16-man, single-elimination event.

The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 10-foot table with standard pro-cut pockets;​
- Simonis 860 cloth;​
- Diamond wooden rack;​
- Cyclop TV balls with a measles cue ball;​
- winner breaks;​
- rack your own (2-ball and 3-ball on the back corners);​
- break from anywhere behind the line;​
- no jump cues allowed;​
- foul on all balls;​
- all slop counts (except spot any 10-ball made on the break); and​
- a 40-second shot clock (one automatic extension per player per rack unless at hill/hill, then two extensions per player).​

The event's 15 matches (262 games), all of which were streamed from the same table, were as follows. I did not watch the Corteza/Morris match on Friday, so these stats exclude that match (19 games) and are for 243 games in total. The figures in parentheses are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats:

Fri., Jan. 23 (Round 1)​
D. Orcollo (.932) def. C. Bartram (.700) 11-1​
M. Immonen (.874) d. N. Van den Berg (.818) 11-9​
L. V. Corteza (.843) d. R. Morris (.757) 11-8​
J. Ignacio (.871) d. M. Dechaine (.779) 11-6​
Sat., Jan.24 (Round 1)​
A. Pagulayan (.866) d. J. Shaw (.804) 11-7​
J. Morra (.779) d. F. Bustamante (.838) 11-10​
S. Van Boening (.883) d. J. Archer (.804) 11-8​
J. Klatt (.866) d. R. Bautista (.681) 11-5​
Sun., Jan. 25 (Round 2)​
Van Boening (.817) d. Klatt (.819) 11-8​
Pagulayan (.857) d. Morra (.806) 11-6​
Ignacio (.851) d. Orcollo (.845) 11-8​
Corteza (.860) d. Immonen (.831) 11-10​
Mon., Jan. 26 (Rounds 3 and 4 -- semifinals and finals)​
Corteza (.895) d. Ignacio (.805) 11-7​
Van Boening (.957) d. Pagulayan (.682) 11-2​
Van Boening (.906) d. Corteza (.686) 11-2​

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 49% of the time (120 of 243), won 50% of the games (121 of 243), and broke and ran 16% of the games (39 of 243).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 243 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
Breaker won the game: 75 (31% of the 243 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 45 (19%)​

Breaker fouled on the break:
Breaker won the game: 4 (2%)​
Breaker lost the game: 18 (7%)​

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
Breaker won the game: 42 (17%)​
Breaker lost the game: 59 (24%)​

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 50% (121) of all 243 games,
He won 63% (75 of 120) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.​
He won 18% (4 of 22) of the games in which he fouled on the break.​
He won 42% (42 of 101) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.​
He won 37% (46 of 123) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.​

Break-and-run games: The 39 break-and-run games represented 16% of all 243 games, 32% of the 121 games won by the breaker, and 33% of the 120 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 39 break-and-run games consisted of 1 three-pack (Van Boening), 2 two-packs (Van Boening and Orcollo), and 32 singles. No one broke and ran 4 or more games in a row.

10-balls on the break: The 10-ball was made on the break 7 times (2.9% of the 243 breaks), but it was spotted (with the breaker continuing to shoot) rather than counting as a win.

I'll post break stats for the Bigfoot event in this Post #1 after the event ends.

In the meantime, this is just serving as a placeholder.

For a few interim stats, see post #2.
 
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AtLarge

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I have watched 7 of the 8 Bigfoot matches played so far. [I missed the L.V. Corteza d. R. Morris match.] Here are a few aggregate stats for these 123 games. The numbers in blue are the comparable percentages for the first two days last year (8 matches, 143 games).

• Breaker made at least one ball without fouling -- 47% (58 of 123)
53%

• Breaker won the game -- 53% (65 of 123)
52%

• Break-and-run games -- 15% (19 of 123)
15%

• Run-outs by breaker after successful breaks -- 33% (19 of 58)
29%

• Run-outs by non-breaker after unsuccessful breaks (dry or fouled) -- 23% (15 of 65)
19%

• Run-outs by player at table after break -- 28% (34 of 123)
24%
 
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AtLarge

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12 of the 2015 Bigfoot event's 15 matches are in the books. The remaining 3 matches are scheduled for tomorrow (Monday).

Here are some aggregate break stats for 11 of the 12 matches, or 199 games. [I missed Corteza/Morris on Day 1,] The numbers in blue are the comparable percentages for the first three days last year (12 matches, 215 games).

• Breaker made at least one ball without fouling -- 49% (97 of 199)
55%

• Breaker won the game -- 48% (96 of 199)
51%

• Break-and-run games -- 15% (30 of 199)
16%

• Run-outs by breaker after successful breaks -- 31% (30 of 97)
29%

• Run-outs by non-breaker after unsuccessful breaks (dry or fouled) -- 24% (24 of 102)
26%

• Run-outs by player at table after break -- 27% (54 of 199)
27%
 
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AtLarge

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How does this compare to say the break stats for a ryo 10 ball event on a 9ft Diamond?

The CSI Invitational 10-Ball Championship was a very similar event on a 9-foot Diamond, except they used the Magic Rack and alternating breaks and call shot. That info is here: http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=370041

Perhaps most similar would be the 4 Fatboy 10-Ball events at the 2009-2012 DCC's. But I have only a limited amount of data on those. Here's what I posted from the 2012 event: http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=262132
 
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spartan

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12 of the 2015 Bigfoot event's 15 matches are in the books. The remaining 3 matches are scheduled for tomorrow (Monday).

Here are some aggregate break stats for 11 of the 12 matches, or 199 games. [I missed Corteza/Morris on Day 1,] The numbers in blue are the comparable percentages for the first three days last year (12 matches, 215 games).

• Breaker made at least one ball without fouling -- 49% (97 of 199)
55%

• Breaker won the game -- 48% (96 of 199)
51%
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Thanks for the stats, AtLarge
IMHO, from above it looks like this years players are not breaking as well as last year

BTW, do you have TPA scores for the matches ?
Thanks:D
 

AtLarge

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Even though the numbers are small, here are the break-and-run results for each player. [Note: This excludes the Corteza/Morris match in Round 1.]

Bartram (1 match) -- 0 B&R out of 1 break = 0%
Van den Berg (1 match) -- 1 of 9 = 11%
Morris (1 match, I missed it)
Dechaine (1 match) -- 1 of 7 = 14%
Shaw (1 match) -- 1 of 7 = 14%
Bustamante (1 match) -- 2 of 10 = 20%
Archer (1 match) -- 1 of 8 = 13%
Bautista (1 match) -- 0 of 6 = 0%

Klatt (2 matches) -- 1 of 18 = 6%
Morra (2 matches) -- 3 of 17 = 18%
Orcollo (2 matches) -- 6 of 19 = 32%
Immonen (2 matches) -- 2 of 22 = 9%

Ignacio (3 matches) -- 4 of 28 = 14%
Pagulayan (3 matches) -- 1 of 24 = 4%

Corteza (4 matches, but I missed his first) -- 3 of 24 = 13%
Van Boening (4 matches) -- 13 of 43 = 30%

Total -- 39 of 243 = 16%

The only 3-pack was by Van Boening. The only two 2-packs were by Van Boening and Orcollo. All the other 32 B&R's were singles.
 

AtLarge

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Miscellany from the 2015 Bigfoot data:
[Note -- Unless stated otherwise, this is based on 14 of the 15 matches.]

• The most balls made on the break was five, once -- by Pagulayan, who ran out from the break.

• Four balls were made on the break once -- by Bustamante -- and he also ran out from the break.

• Three balls were made on the break 9 times -- 5 times by Van Boening, twice by Ignacio, and once by Morra and Dechaine.

• The average number of balls made on all breaks was 0.8. The average number of balls made on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul) was 1.4.

• Following the 22 breaking fouls, the incoming player ran out the game 16 times (73%).

• The loser won an average of 6.5 games (for all 15 matches).

• The average elapsed time for the matches was 107 minutes, or 6.2 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made, so it includes time for racking, bathroom/smoking breaks, calls to the referee, and "discussions."

• The match that was both longest in elapsed time (151 min.) and highest in average minutes per game (7.2) was Morra def. Bustamante.

• Two matches tied for shortest in elapsed time at 57 min. -- Orcollo d. Bartram and Van Boening d. Pagulayan. The latter match was lowest in average minutes per game at 4.4 for the 13 games.
 
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AtLarge

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How did SVB do (other than winning the tournament) compared to the rest of the field?

Made at least one ball on the break and did not foul:
  • SVB -- 70% (30 of 43)
  • Rest of field -- 45% (90 of 200)
  • Total -- 49% (120 of 243)

Breaker won game:
  • SVB -- 67% (29 of 43)
  • Rest of field -- 46% (92 of 200)
  • Total -- 50% (121 of 243)

Break-and-run games:
  • SVB -- 30% (13 of 43)
  • Rest of field -- 13% (26 of 200)
  • Total -- 16% (39 of 243)

Break-and-run games on successful breaks:
  • SVB -- 43% (13 of 30)
  • Rest of field -- 29% (26 of 90)
  • Total -- 33% (39 of 120)

Break-and-run games as % of games won by breaker:
  • SVB -- 45% (13 of 29)
  • Rest of field -- 28% (26 of 92)
  • Total -- 32% (39 of 121)

Average number of balls pocketed on all breaks:
  • SVB -- 1.3
  • Rest of field -- 0.7
  • Total -- 0.8

Average number of balls pocketed on successful breaks:
  • SVB -- 1.6
  • Rest of field -- 1.4
  • Total -- 1.4

Mean of Accu-Stats match TPA's
  • SVB -- .891 (for 4 TPA's)
  • Rest of field -- .813 ( for 26)
  • Total -- .824 (for 30)

[Note -- The mean of the TPA's for more than one match is likely to be a little different from the single TPA calculated for those same matches. But I do not have the numerators and denominators for all the TPA's to do an aggregate TPA for more than one match.]
 

Poolmanis

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So if look about SVB and Orcollo B&R and TPA stats they are quite own level..
Not surprising they were U.S Open final pair with Epic Final..
 

Magog30

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You mentioned that the 10 ball went on the break 7 times. Any info on who made these breaks and what pockets they were made into? Just wondering if counting the 10 on the break would have made the event more exciting.
 

AtLarge

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You mentioned that the 10 ball went on the break 7 times. Any info on who made these breaks and what pockets they were made into? Just wondering if counting the 10 on the break would have made the event more exciting.

The 10-balls on the break were made by Dechaine (in his loss to Ignacio), Morra (twice, in his win over Bustamante), Klatt (in his win over Bautista), Ignacio (in his win over Orcollo), and Immonen (twice, in his loss to Corteza). I did not make a note of the pockets.

Jay Helfert, director of this event, is not a fan of call-shot 9-Ball or 10-Ball. Hence, this event is not call shot even though it is 10-Ball. However, since the breaker is racking for himself, Jay has disallowed a win on the break.

As to making the event more exciting by counting the 10 on the break, I don't view it that way (although some people do). To have a game of skill end with a slop shot on the break is not exciting to me whether I am the breaker, the opponent, or a spectator. But some do view it as more exciting for spectators.
 
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spartan

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[Note -- The mean of the TPA's for more than one match is likely to be a little different from the single TPA calculated for those same matches. But I do not have the numerators and denominators for all the TPA's to do an aggregate TPA for more than one match.]
Thanks for stats.
Nice note on numer and denom

Jay Helfert, director of this event, is not a fan of call-shot 9-Ball or 10-Ball. Hence, this event is not call shot even though it is 10-Ball. However, since the breaker is racking for himself, Jay has disallowed a win on the break.

As to making the event more exciting by counting the 10 on the break, I don't view it that way (although some people do). To have a game of skill end with a slop shot on the break is not exciting to me whether I am the breaker, the opponent, or a spectator. But some do view it as more exciting for spectators.

Never liked Golden breaks by and large they are flukes like hole in one though hole in one is way much more of luck factor
This is first time I watch a no call shot 10 ball
Don't think it made diff in most matches- did not watch all matches but in matches I watched only saw one match where it made diff and that is the Lee Van v Diva match where Lee Van slopped in a ball in the hill hill rack
:D
 

Colin Colenso

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SVB and Orcollo are Break & Running at almost 1 in 3, the rest of the field are closer to 1 in 7.

So 10 ball is not much of a breaking game unless it's a monster break and runner.
 

jay helfert

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Thanks for all the stats. Not really any surprises for me here. Shane clearly looked like the dominant player from my viewpoint. He was the only player who seemed to have a good idea what he wanted to accomplish on the break, and most importantly, he did it most of the time. I won't go into details, but he was clearly playing the second two balls in their respective side pockets, and if the stats can be analyzed, I'm certain many of his balls made on the break were there. He had both corner balls going four rails toward pockets as well, and the one ball going up table toward a corner pocket.

Something that does not show up in the stats is Shane's ability to shoot very long (9'+) shots accurately and play position afterwards. Most of these players (not Dennis) had trouble with extremely long shots that were out in the open, missing over half the time. Some guys got smart and started playing safes instead.

It's a whole different animal playing on the Bigfoot table, and for the most part it's not a breaking war, like Nine and Ten Ball has become on 9' tables. There is more play to the game, which I like, and the run-outs require more skill most of the time. This table separates the men from the boys, so to speak. These were all good players, but one clearly stood out this week. I thought Dennis was the second best player, but Ignacio has had his number lately, and that can create a psychological problem. Jeff always plays well against Dennis, probably because he would like to be 'The Man' in the Philippines.

I resisted changing from the 9' to the 10' table when Greg first presented me with this idea, but after a few of these events I will have to say he was right on this one. All in all it's just a better test of overall pool skills.

One last thing. I'm sure many people will now claim that Shane is unbeatable on this table, but I would refute that statement. My opinion is that Ko Pin Yi would probably be his equal and that there are several other Chinese players who could adapt well to these conditions. Maybe Greg and I will be successful in bring a few of them here next year. We keep trying! ;)
 
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AtLarge

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Thanks for all the stats. Not really any surprises for me here. Shane clearly looked like the dominant player from my viewpoint. He was the only player who seemed to have a good idea what he wanted to accomplish on the break, and most importantly, he did it most of the time. I won't go into details, but he was clearly playing the second two balls in their respective side pockets, and if the stats can be analyzed, I'm certain many of his balls made on the break were there. He had both corner balls going three rails toward pockets as well, and the one ball going up table toward a corner pocket.

Something that does not show up in the stats is Shane's ability to shoot very long (9'+) shots accurately and play position afterwards. Most of these players (not Dennis) had trouble with extremely long shots that were out in the open, missing over half the time. Some guys got smart and started playing safes instead.

It's a whole different animal playing on the Bigfoot table, and for the most part it's not a breaking war, like Nine and Ten Ball has become on 9' tables. There is more play to the game, which I like, and the run-outs require more skill most of the time. This table separates the men from the boys, so to speak. These were all good players, but one clearly stood out this week. I thought Dennis was the second best player, but Ignacio has had his number lately, and that can create a psychological problem. Jeff always plays well against Dennis, probably because he would like to be 'The Man' in the Philippines.

I resisted changing from the 9' to the 10' table when Greg first presented me with this idea, but after a few of these events I will have to say he was right on this one. All in all it's just a better test of overall pool skills.

One last thing. I'm sure many people will now claim that Shane is unbeatable on this table, but I would refute that statement. My opinion is that Ko Pin Yi would probably be his equal and that there are several other Chinese players who could adapt well to these conditions. Maybe Greg and I will be successful in bring a few of them here next year. We keep trying! ;)

Thanks for your comments, Jay. And thank you (and Greg) for doing this event on the 10-footer; it certainly allows us to see something a bit different from the norm and, as you say, a better overall test.

As to Shane, his last two matches certainly were terrific. But I agree with you that he is far from unbeatable. In his match with Klatt on Sunday, he looked highly vulnerable. It seems that sometimes that extra little movement in his backswing throws him off and he misses quite a few shots. One of my greatest takeaway's from the event is how Shane went from that really mediocre performance on Sunday to the practice table to work out the kinks later on Sunday and early Monday, and then performed at that amazing level he did on Monday afternoon and evening. Seeing that was a real treat.
 
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