Semi-Final 1 Judgement
Semi Final 1
thoffen v jsp
thoffen
OUT PLAN SUCCESS ESTIMATE (OPSE): 20 points
I see your thinking with getting rid of the potentially tricky 6 early, but it relies on a near perfect position from 3 to the 7 ball to the 5 ball, which could easily go wrong I feel. But not a bad idea to set this as your ideal beginning and then adjust if you finish a bit short or long after playing your first shot, the 3 ball.
For your finish, I think you moved the CB around more than you needed to by playing the 1 and 2 balls into the left corner pockets. If either of these shots gets 6 inches out of position line, the out would become very tricky.
You said the margin on the 2 is huge, but I think you've only got about a 6 inch margin here . Long and you're in big trouble, short and you'll start needing to load up with IE, or accept a fine cut on the 8 to finish.
To me, playing the 1 into the top right or top center requires almost no travel and would leave easy position for the 2 into the bottom center with an easy angle to get on the 8.
Still, overall your out looks a pretty good chance: 16 points
PATH ACCURACY: 10 points
Paths look ok: 10 points
PATH SIMPLICITY: 10 points
I think more running that is needed for 1 and 2 ball: 8 points
PROBLEM BALL HANDLING : 10 points
Got rid of the 6 early but could have found trouble getting to the 8: 9 points
Total: 43 Points.
jsp
OUT PLAN SUCCESS ESTIMATE (OPSE): 20 points
jsp decides to leave the 6 ball to the end, but considering his pattern from 1 to 2 ball, it would be hard to mess this up as anywhere from 1/4 to 3/4 ball rolls through from the 2 to the 6 ball with a good angle to play for the 8-ball.
But I think jsp plans for the CB to be too close to the rail for his shot to the 5 ball. It would have been easy to play to be straighter on the 5 and then stun back just left of the 14 for a friendlier angle on the 4 ball.
I really like the 4, 1, 2, 6 finish. Hard to mess this up, especially as the 1 can go in the top right or center, so position from the 4 isn't too crucial: 18 points
PATH ACCURACY: 10 points
Lines from the 5 and 4 balls not likely: 8 points
PATH SIMPLICITY: 10 points
Order is great, but line choice for playing 5 troubles me: 9 points
PROBLEM BALL HANDLING : 10 points
Clever way to deal with the 6 and 8: 9 points
Total: 44 points
I prefer the finishing solution by jsp, but he almost messed it up by leaving an accute angle on the 5 when he didn't need to.
Getting on the 6 early would be a good idea, as 2 direct to 8 would be an easy finishing route, but playing for position on the 5 between the 2 and the 14 seems unecessarily risky to me. Yes the 2 ball would act as a saver, but the 2 is part of what I think is the best finishing pattern, the 4, 1, 2.
jsp gets it by a nose. Just my preference / estimation of course.
Thanks to both for the participation and explanations. I tried to take them into consideration.
Colin