The problem I see with this strategy is that if you shoot the opening break shot after a third foul, I think you are less than 50% to have the first open shot. (Otherwise, you would choose to break when winning the lag.) That means taking a third foul not only loses you 16 more points, but it will probably give your opponent the first shot. In the scenario above, there was no way to get him on two before your third.
If you take the combo and it goes, you have a chance to run out. I prefer the positive path.
Another factor to consider when there is "maybe" a shot out of the rack is that you can't afford to leave it for your opponent to shoot. You have to either not give him an angle to hit it or you have to disturb it in a way that is guaranteed to spoil it.
I once heard Irving Crane say that in all the years he played Mosconi, Willie never left him a shot in the rack.
Well, only because I'm in a particularly *giving* mood today, I will let you guys "in" on one of the games biggest secrets. How to play a dead ball (out of the full rack) when stranded up table...[/COLOR
PLEASE DON'T SPREAD THIS SECRET TO THE MASSES...ITS OUR LITTLE SECRET, OK?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2ub9LL2qIg
A player must put aside the % and have faith in themselves. By taking a three foul penalty and making an opening break. A player must have faith in their abilities to preform a proper opening break shot. Leaving their opponent with no shot and forcing them to take a very long safe shot.
As for a "maybe" shot. Yes, you must disturb that shot while playing a
safe off the rack and leaving him up table or where ever.
Nah, it doesn't go very often. That's why I was being facetious with the "playing the percentages".Does that shot work a majority of the time?! I noticed u didn't go full speed...any reason?
In a tournament Saturday, I needed about 5 and my opponent needed about 40. There were maybe a few balls loose and I think I left him against the stack. He ended up taking 3 fouls rather than leave me an open shot. He played a nice opening safe and now I was on 2 fouls. My safe left him a shot, not a great shot but a tough one. He ran over two racks on me and didn't let me see much.
Before long, we were in another safety battle, me needing 6 and him needing 8 with lots of balls open. I left him in the middle of the bottom short rail and he tried to slice a ball up in one of the top corner pockets. If he made it, he would have easily run out. He missed and I ran out.
Thanks for the comment. That sounds like you two had one heck of a great match. I wish I could of been there to watch.
It was kind of tense at the end. He has a high run of 70 and is a stronger player than me though once in a while I can get him. I was kind of down because it felt like the game was mine, but it was slipping away. Our last safety battle was intense. He has better cue ball control than me so I was worried he would see daylight first. I held on and he blinked first this time.