AZB Osmium Member
Since no one seems to have worked on this, I did a simple Excel spreadsheet that calculates the chances. With the assumptions stated, the chance for such a run by one player in one match is 1 in 27. The key, which a lot of people overlook, is that a wired nine ball is a huge, huge factor. Also, the fact that the match is 15 games long roughly triples the chance of a run of 10 racks because the player probably gets multiple chances.... Here is a related statistical problem: given that a player will make the nine on the break (or very early) half the time and that his run-out percentage from the break is 30%, what is the chance in a 15-rack game that he will have a run of 10 racks? ...