Earl and the truth about the "Million Dollar Challenge"

rrick33

Rick
Silver Member
statistical illusions

I think that when the statistics were run, it would have been based on a random rack. I would highly suspect that if Earl really did run all those racks, it was likely that the rack was set in a specific or fairly similar order every time and that the order lent itself toward a more consistent outcome on every break.

I've seen several telivised tournaments where a third party racking the balls did it in the same order every time.

Under those conditions, it would be easy to calculate where each ball would likely end up with a consistent break and therefore much easier to run. You would find yourself essentially playing the same rack several times in a row with a few variations here and there.

If these conditions existed, then the idea that the odds were anywhere close to 6-7 million to one is ridiculous. If you are essentially playing the same lay-out after the break just about every time, then the only statistic that carries significant weight is the odds of making a ball on the break 15 times in a row.

I would say that if you are really familiar with the table and can put the 1 ball in the side with a fair degree of consistency then it's possible that a competent player might acomplish this feat under the conditions above 2 or 3 times over a 30 year carrer....assuming that every attempt was a race to 15.

Imagine that you racked the balls the same way every time and used the same break every time and got a similar result nearly every time. If you played the same rack over and over again 1000 times, how often do you think you would find yourself consistently running 5 or more consecutive racks?

The only thing you'd have to practice is putting the 1 ball in the side pocket....everything else is predetermined by the stacked rack.
 

patrickcues

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I cant wait for this video to come out. This is something that we will never see again in our lifetime! With the players of today, playing a good safety over making a tough shot! Don't get me wrong I know there is more than 1 great player out that can run 10 plus racks. But not under these circumstances!!


Its a shame that CJ's tour isnt still around! Never know may bring some new light to it!
Thanks C J for taking time to put this together! Looking forward to getting a copy!
Talk to you soon!!
 

TATE

AzB Gold Mensch
Gold Member
Silver Member
Using simple math, here are some odds:

Assuming Earl breaks and runs out (or breaks in the 9) 1 out of every 3 turns at the table, the odds of him doing that 10 times in a row would be 1 in 59,049 attempts, or 11 times would be 1 in 177,147 attempts.

So the chances of that occuring in a single tournament by one player are highly unlikely. However, the odds of one of the field doing it at a 100 entry pro tournament make the odds still remote but far better, nothing at all like the odds the insurance company calculated.

Here are more probabities:

- The chances of Earl still having annuity income today if he would have accepted $50,000 annually - 99.79%

- The chances of Earl taking an annuity instead of a lump sum : .000319%

- Probability that Earl has any of the lump sum payment left: calculator came up with "false" never seen that before.
 
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rrick33

Rick
Silver Member
The odds that Earl really did run 15 racks in a row without the benefit of a stacked rack......7,000,000:1
 

CJ Wiley

ESPN WORLD OPEN CHAMPION
Gold Member
Silver Member
no one has ever ran 11 racks in a row in a professional tournament

I cant wait for this video to come out. This is something that we will never see again in our lifetime! With the players of today, playing a good safety over making a tough shot! Don't get me wrong I know there is more than 1 great player out that can run 10 plus racks. But not under these circumstances!!


Its a shame that CJ's tour isnt still around! Never know may bring some new light to it!
Thanks C J for taking time to put this together! Looking forward to getting a copy!
Talk to you soon!!

Thanks Doug....yeah, the funny thing about arguing with the odds is no one has ever ran 11 racks in a row in a professional tournament before or since this has happened......if anyone has I"m not aware of it anyway. And Earl himself said it had been approximately 8 Million racks since HE had done it practice OR a tournament...and HE hasn't done it since in private OR a tournament. Remember, this was done on a table with TRIPLE SHIMMED pockets....no one will ever do this again under these conditions even with 16 Million to 1...LoL...it's like playing the lottery, your chances are just as good if you NEVER play it.
 
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JB Cases

www.jbcases.com
Gold Member
Silver Member
Thanks Doug....yeah, the funny thing about arguing with the odds is no one has ever ran 11 racks in a row in a professional tournament before or since this has happened......if anyone has I"m not aware of it anyway. And Earl himself said it had been approximately 8 Million racks since HE had done it practice OR a tournament...and HE hasn't done it since in private OR a tournament.

Don't know about 11 but Ko Pin Yi of Taiwan ran out ten racks to win a tournament where he was down something like 11-2 in the finals going to 13.

Efren has done 9 I think.
 

CJ Wiley

ESPN WORLD OPEN CHAMPION
Gold Member
Silver Member
it's tighter than a clam with lockjaw

Don't know about 11 but Ko Pin Yi of Taiwan ran out ten racks to win a tournament where he was down something like 11-2 in the finals going to 13.

Efren has done 9 I think.

Yeah, but those tables were loose compared to the ones at that tournament...I have the Semi's and the Finals on Tape as well....you can tell you can come close to fitting two balls in the corners. I filmed all my videos on that exact table and it's tighter than a clam with lockjaw. :groucho:
 

AtLarge

AzB Gold Member
Gold Member
Silver Member
... And Earl himself said it had been approximately 8 Million racks since HE had done it practice OR a tournament...

CJ -- I think if you'll do a little arithmetic with this claim you'll see that one should not take everything Earl says literally.
 

punter

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Wow, I just saw this thread while looking back through some of the older ones on the Forum. This makes for some interesting reading because we are almost completed with a Documentary of this very subject. We have a two hour interview with Earl Strickland, which changed my whole perception on the event. I saw it, and have a video of him doing it and still don't believe it. We also have a great interview with Jay Helfert and Max Eberle along with many other's involved in this historic event.

We are shooting for the last of October to have this out and I"m excited for everyone to find out "the real story"....I wasn't allowed to talk because of a confidentiality agreement concerning the lawsuit and no one else knew the facts behind the despute. John McChesney was acurate about his description of some of the things that were apparent, but had no way of knowing the inside story regarding the legal despute, and preseding 2.5 years of litigation. It is true that I gave him the first payment of $50,000 so he wouldn't have to wait on the lawsuit which I knew would last over 2 years and that's typical for any lawsuit in the Million Dollar and up range.

I am also glad this thread was brought back up, lot's of good info about an amazing event. I'm sure the film project will be popular. I remember watching the finals of the tournament(on ESPN, I guess). Just my opinion, but Earl seemed to be pissed off during the whole final match. I remember thinking, why is he pissed if he just won a million dollars. I figured that Earl had already found out there was some kind of problem with the payoff of the million. He may have expected the million in cash, immediately.:)

I would love to hear your take on this CJ, but if your answer is, wait for the film, that's OK too.
 

JB Cases

www.jbcases.com
Gold Member
Silver Member
Yeah, but those tables were loose compared to the ones at that tournament...I have the Semi's and the Finals on Tape as well....you can tell you can come close to fitting two balls in the corners. I filmed all my videos on that exact table and it's tighter than a clam with lockjaw. :groucho:

I hear you. Under that pressure even loose pockets would tighten up on you. Earl is and always has been a pure beast when it comes to running out. These days he misses relatively easy shots inexplicably but is still WORLD CLASS.
 

CJ Wiley

ESPN WORLD OPEN CHAMPION
Gold Member
Silver Member
He may have thought something was funny when I gave him a personal check for the $50k

I am also glad this thread was brought back up, lot's of good info about an amazing event. I'm sure the film project will be popular. I remember watching the finals of the tournament(on ESPN, I guess). Just my opinion, but Earl seemed to be pissed off during the whole final match. I remember thinking, why is he pissed if he just won a million dollars. I figured that Earl had already found out there was some kind of problem with the payoff of the million. He may have expected the million in cash, immediately.:)

I would love to hear your take on this CJ, but if your answer is, wait for the film, that's OK too.

He didn't know until after the finals. I didn't ever want that to come up so I kept everything to myself until after the finals. He may have thought something was funny when I gave him a personal check for the $50k though.:wink: That whole tournament was taxing on my nerves, I'm as surprised as anyone how well I played in the finals. The cue I was using was also brand new and McDermott had sent it to me 3 days before the tournament started. I had just signed a cue deal with them and we all thought it would be better to use their brand (my signature line hadn't been made yet) and I played flawless with it. The only thing was for a couple of days after the event my arm ached because the balance was slightly more "butt heavy"....I couldn't believe it made that much of a difference, but I have been using my Bludworth for years and was extremely used to it. The McDermott had all the other playing characteristics though.
 

Alf Taylor

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Buddy Knows.

I was sitting with Buddy Hall, watching a tournament in Albequerque. There was a new car prize offered to anyone who ran ten racks (9 ball). I told buddy "Wow, Steve Shaw ran six his first match." I remember Buddy saying "Alfie, do you know how far six racks is from ten?"
Keep it nice. Alfie
 
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CJ Wiley

ESPN WORLD OPEN CHAMPION
Gold Member
Silver Member
you write pretty well for a rug dealer

I was sitting with Buddy Hall, watching a tournament in Albequerque. There was a new car prize offered to anyone who ran ten racks (9 ball). I told buddy "Wow, Steve Shaw ran six his first match." I remember Buddy saying "Alfie, do you know how far six racks is from ten?"
Keep it nice. Alfie

Buddy knows what the real deal is. Just making a ball and getting a makable shot on the one 10 times is next to impossible on tough equipment. I've ran 6-9 racks many times in my life, but I've only ran over 10 once.

Hey there Alf, I just got around to reading your book. I'm not all the way finished yet, but I have to admit you write pretty well for a rug dealer :groucho: I may be going to Vegas in a month, maybe I'll stop by and harass you for a day or two:wink:
 

Txstang1

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I think that when the statistics were run, it would have been based on a random rack. I would highly suspect that if Earl really did run all those racks, it was likely that the rack was set in a specific or fairly similar order every time and that the order lent itself toward a more consistent outcome on every break.

I've seen several telivised tournaments where a third party racking the balls did it in the same order every time.

Under those conditions, it would be easy to calculate where each ball would likely end up with a consistent break and therefore much easier to run. You would find yourself essentially playing the same rack several times in a row with a few variations here and there.

If these conditions existed, then the idea that the odds were anywhere close to 6-7 million to one is ridiculous. If you are essentially playing the same lay-out after the break just about every time, then the only statistic that carries significant weight is the odds of making a ball on the break 15 times in a row.

I would say that if you are really familiar with the table and can put the 1 ball in the side with a fair degree of consistency then it's possible that a competent player might acomplish this feat under the conditions above 2 or 3 times over a 30 year carrer....assuming that every attempt was a race to 15.

Imagine that you racked the balls the same way every time and used the same break every time and got a similar result nearly every time. If you played the same rack over and over again 1000 times, how often do you think you would find yourself consistently running 5 or more consecutive racks?

The only thing you'd have to practice is putting the 1 ball in the side pocket....everything else is predetermined by the stacked rack.
I challenge you to even run 6 racks in a row, rack em how you want, angle the rack, I dont care. BET !

btw, I was there for this acheivement. Did you not read that a tournament official racked the last 5 or 6 racks ? I can assure you, even if the official racked the last 5 the same way, it wasn't the same way they were racked before he got involved.

Steve
 

YBA

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Holy thread revival Batman! No activity since 2003... 9 Years later, 5 pages of replies in a span of a week!
 

Txstang1

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Hi Steve,
I've heard various counts on the number of 9's on the break. Do you remember how many there were?

Thanks,
I'm sorry I dont remember as I havent seen any video since the event. One thing that I do seem to rememeber is that there were a lot of cheese shots (9ball combos), but he got out none the less.

I CAN'T WAIT FOR THE VIDEO !!!
 
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CJ Wiley

ESPN WORLD OPEN CHAMPION
Gold Member
Silver Member
CJ -- I think if you'll do a little arithmetic with this claim you'll see that one should not take everything Earl says literally.

That's funny....yeah, literally isn't a word I"d use with a few comments he made, but it's entertaining none the less. :idea:
 
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