Estimating Percentages

[Colin Colenso]

I can't wait for you to come up with a name for this Colin.

Deception
Pot 'n' Bluff
N.U.T.S. (Never Underestimate Two Shots)
Stayin' Alive
Life or Death
Colenso Bluff 'em
Mine and Yours
Wanted Dead or Alive...But Mostly Dead
Who's Your Daddy?
Kiss my butt, you shot the wrong ball, BE-ATCH!

Ok, well some of these were ligit...

Good luck with this bro!

haha...some good names

I have a couple of names in mind, and I'll be after the domain when I do decide, so I better not say now

Colin

 

[Colin Colenso]

Cute 2 roll into and lay on the 15-100%
Shoot 7 12 o'clock high roll to 2 lower balls down table-85%+
Angle from lower balls determines path to other solids by the 8-85%
Angle from lower ball to get to the other solids 70%

Not sure you got the meaning of the challenge here ID.

In the game, we would actually just have to make one particular ball within the 2 shots. In the cases provided, none of them would be worth shooting first shot, so the challenge becomes choosing a makeable ball to use to improve position for the ball that must be made.

In the case of cutting the 2 ball and hitting the 15 for a perfect leave on the 7, I'd guess it's about a 70% chance to make the pot and to pretty much get the shape hoped for, for an almost gimme shot on the 7. Making a total % for the shot of around 65-70% going that route.

Once the 7 ball is pocketed, or any ball is missed, the next player comes up to play, with 2 shots to make his secret ball. That is, 2 shots if he can make a ball on the first shot.

Colin

 

[TATE]

Without actually trying it yet - I'll do it tonight and let you know. It's hard to tell without actually setting it up on a table, but...

I would probably shoot the 4 in the corner with soft right and and 2 rail behind the 8 to shoot it into the other side pocket - in other words, take the short position - with a fairly good percentage, like 70%.

On the 9 I would shoot the 2 in the corner with a little soft draw to bring the cueball into the rail slowly past the 7 and then the 9 in the side pocket. High percentage, maybe 90%.

On the 7 - undecided. I might shoot the 2 in the corner with soft draw clearing the 7 then the 7 down the rail the long way. I don't like taking a long shot at the other corner with that angle - but I'll try it tonight and let you know. I would say 60% on the 7 ball as of right now.

My table is pretty tight but I'm used to it. The position play will more determine the success, because the shots are pretty easy if position is made.

Chris

 

[seymore15074]

I'll go first. The 7 60%, the 8 50% the 9 70%. If I had to play the 8 I'd probably bank the 1, for the 9 take the 10 and for the 7 I'd probably take the 12.

You'd bank the 1? Ok.

9 ball => 10 in the corner with follow, then 9 in side. Easy enough.

Exactly. I'd say 90% on this one.

The 8 in the side from the 4, 70%.

The 7 in the side after playing the 2 with some left. 80%?

 

[Andrew Manning]

8-ball: Shoot the 5-14 combo softly so the CB rolls through a bit, shoot the 8 in the side near the 7. 85-90% for a pro.

9-ball: Sink the 10 firmly with a touch of follow, shoot the 9 in the side. 90% for a pro.

7-ball: Sink the 10 hard with a touch of draw, pull the CB to the rail in between the side pocket and the 15 (it looks like sinking the 12 with follow only takes you into the 2). I'm guessing 75% for a pro.

Those are my thoughts. Each of these are shots/position routes where if they came up in 9-ball, in my opinion any pro would take the shot rather than playing safe.

Your game idea sounds like it'd be fun to watch, Colin. I hope we get to see the final product.

-Andrew

 

[PoolBum]

8 ball => Must use the 4 for position, but 4 is too steep an angle to hold position for the 8 in the bottom left.

I disagree with this assessment. The angle on the 4 is only slightly more than optimum, and it's not hard to kill the cueball (using a touch of bottom left English) and play two cushion shape for the side. Make % for an A+ player I would say is 85% or more.

One option for the 7 (though a difficult one) is to draw off the 2 into the 7. The safer option is to just stop off the 12, and take the tough cut on the 7. Another option is to follow off the 12 a few inches to clear the 2 and get a better angle on the 7. Make % is 75.

I like drawing off the 12 straight back for the 9 in the corner. Make % is 90+.

 

[Koop]

8 ball => Must use the 4 for position, but 4 is too steep an angle to hold position for the 8 in the bottom left. If you try to hold position, you risk the 4 not making it to the pocket. You'd have to go two rails around the 5 and pocket the 8 in any of the 3 top pockets. Because you have 3 available pockets, an A+ player will probably make the 8 from that position more times than not.

Hey bud,

You can drag that cueball for position. Problem is speed control but it is very doable (if that's a word )

I finally printed this off to really look at it.

I would still play the 4 in the corner and play the cueball to the side rail for the 8 in the side. Between the 1 and 5.

7-Ball: Looking at it now I would most likely stun the 12 in the corner for the 7 up the rail.

9-Ball: 10 in the corner with slight follow to play the 9 in the side. Can't really tell if would run into the 9 or not based on the picture but if it would then a slight punch to bring the cue more to the right.

I'm going to try and remember to bring this with me to practice so I can see how tough these are. It's easy to sit here and say I could do this with no problem but actually doing it is another story.

 

[jsp]

PoolBum and Koop are probably right. Tough to gauge angles and distances on screen.

Great thread Colin. Looking forward to your next one.

 

[Andrew Manning]

PoolBum and Koop are probably right. Tough to gauge angles and distances on screen.

Great thread Colin. Looking forward to your next one.

I disagre; I don't think any of you are talking about the highest percentage to make the 8. Playing the 4 is the wrong shot to get on the 8. The 5-14 combo carries automatic position for the 8 in the upper side. Just hit it soft and cinch the 14, and you're home.

-Andrew

 

[jsp]

I disagre; I don't think any of you are talking about the highest percentage to make the 8. Playing the 4 is the wrong shot to get on the 8. The 5-14 combo carries automatic position for the 8 in the upper side. Just hit it soft and cinch the 14, and you're home.

-Andrew

You're absolutely right Andrew. However, Colin's rules state you have to hit either the 2, 14, 10, or 12 to get on the 7, 8, or 9. If there were no such restrictions, I'd agree that the 5-14 combo is the best route.

EDIT: Nevermind, there are no such restrictions. It seemed like there were. My bad.

 

[seymore15074]

I disagre; I don't think any of you are talking about the highest percentage to make the 8. Playing the 4 is the wrong shot to get on the 8. The 5-14 combo carries automatic position for the 8 in the upper side. Just hit it soft and cinch the 14, and you're home.

-Andrew

Set this up and try cutting the 4 and getting on the 8 and set it up and try the combo...do it 10 times and post the results. I'll bet on the cut all day long.

Here's why:

1) It's a combo, it has to be much more accurate than pocketing a single ball.
2) You still need speed control for it, too.
3) You'll be crossing your position rather than coming into line

 

[sjm]

7- 75%, 8 - 65%, 9 - 92%

 

[Colin Colenso]

PoolBum and Koop are probably right. Tough to gauge angles and distances on screen.

Great thread Colin. Looking forward to your next one.

That's true, it's usually easier to perceivesuch probabilities when we can see the shots on a real table and look at it from a few angles. Sometimes easy shots can look harder on the wei table and vice versa.

Colin

 

[Colin Colenso]

Without actually trying it yet - I'll do it tonight and let you know. It's hard to tell without actually setting it up on a table, but...

I would probably shoot the 4 in the corner with soft right and and 2 rail behind the 8 to shoot it into the other side pocket - in other words, take the short position - with a fairly good percentage, like 70%.

On the 9 I would shoot the 2 in the corner with a little soft draw to bring the cueball into the rail slowly past the 7 and then the 9 in the side pocket. High percentage, maybe 90%.

On the 7 - undecided. I might shoot the 2 in the corner with soft draw clearing the 7 then the 7 down the rail the long way. I don't like taking a long shot at the other corner with that angle - but I'll try it tonight and let you know. I would say 60% on the 7 ball as of right now.

My table is pretty tight but I'm used to it. The position play will more determine the success, because the shots are pretty easy if position is made.

Chris

Hi Chris,
Interested to see how your trial goes. Especially the 4 to the 8 ball and the 7 down the rail. It's a shame though, that it's impossible to trial 10 first attempts at each though. The advantage of just one trial before an attempt can be considerable for someone with the skills to adjust.

Anyway, you'll get a better idea of the likelihood of these shots after checking them out on your table.

Colin

 

[Colin Colenso]

8-ball: Shoot the 5-14 combo softly so the CB rolls through a bit, shoot the 8 in the side near the 7. 85-90% for a pro.

9-ball: Sink the 10 firmly with a touch of follow, shoot the 9 in the side. 90% for a pro.

7-ball: Sink the 10 hard with a touch of draw, pull the CB to the rail in between the side pocket and the 15 (it looks like sinking the 12 with follow only takes you into the 2). I'm guessing 75% for a pro.

Those are my thoughts. Each of these are shots/position routes where if they came up in 9-ball, in my opinion any pro would take the shot rather than playing safe.

Your game idea sounds like it'd be fun to watch, Colin. I hope we get to see the final product.

-Andrew

Hi Andrew,
That 5-14 combo looks a little too angled to make the combo or shape on the 8 easy to me. I suspect the CB would tend to travel to far, meaning a cannon onto the 8 or 1 ball may be necessary to keep shape. But the shot is certainly worth a look. Good to see some other options arising

Also hope I can produce a good video of this game format. I think it will be very interesting to watch....but will have to see the final product to get a better idea.

I'm heading back to Australia in 2 days and will have to find somewhere to set up my table there. It could take me a few months to complete the project. I'm still learning my way as a camera man and editor. I'll also have to train up a few short stop / semi-pro level players so they become familiar with the game.

Anyway, this little exercise has been useful. I'm pretty satisfied that it won't be too hard to get reasonably agreeable probability estimates for various shots. That will be quite insightful for the average viewer who often doesn't appreciate the difficulty of some shots.

I also like the idea that a smart bluffer with a fairly good game could outplay a great player who can't bluff, and that a great shot/shape-maker should outshine a mechanical player.

I'll let you all know here when the video is done. I plan to put up some reasonably lengthy samples online and to sell the full match on DVD for a fair price (maybe $10), to cover some of the costs.

Colin

 

[TATE]

Hi Chris,
Interested to see how your trial goes. Especially the 4 to the 8 ball and the 7 down the rail. It's a shame though, that it's impossible to trial 10 first attempts at each though. The advantage of just one trial before an attempt can be considerable for someone with the skills to adjust.

Anyway, you'll get a better idea of the likelihood of these shots after checking them out on your table.

Colin

Once I set it up, the actual shots, angles, and speed is easier to see and my idea does not work in the real world because the balls are a few inches out of position. There is too much angle on the 2 ball shot to draw the cueball past the 7 with any control. the 4 is too thin of a cut to slow the cueball with precision.

So, what I ended up with is - I can play the 9 two ways, both equally successful I would estimate at 70% - 90%. I can play it your way, rolling forward off the 10 and shooting it in the lower side, or I can draw the cueball straight back from the 12 into the rail and off, and cut the 9 in the other side. The first way the 10 is the harder shot, the other way the 9. Straight back draw shots when the cueball is close to the object ball are amazingly controllable, and a shot like this is an often overlooked position play.

The 8 ball I could just stop on the 12 and make the 8 in the side. It would be a pretty high percentage for me on a table with 5" sides. Mine is tight at 4.5" and i made it most of the time. I set the 8 up on the diamond you showed and it was pretty easy. It was easier on the table than it looks in the diagram for some reason, at least I hope I set it up right.

The 7 ball I played as you did, rolling forward on the 12 and shooting it in the corner. Again, the shot had less angle in real life than it looked like on the diagram. I did not freeze the 7 to the rail and I made it 8 of 10. I always had a shot at it and when I missed it was undercut both times. If the 7 were frozen to the rail, then you would have a percentage shot that would separate some. Some people are good at these and others are not.

Chris

 

[Donovan]

Getting a real percentage.

The real problem with having the same person do this shot ten times as opposed to having 10 people trying it once, is that the one person doing it 10 times should improve as they go and as they learn just how to do it.

10 people is a more real percentage number. Just a thought here.

 

[Colin Colenso]

Once I set it up, the actual shots, angles, and speed is easier to see and my idea does not work in the real world because the balls are a few inches out of position. There is too much angle on the 2 ball shot to draw the cueball past the 7 with any control. the 4 is too thin of a cut to slow the cueball with precision.

So, what I ended up with is - I can play the 9 two ways, both equally successful I would estimate at 70% - 90%. I can play it your way, rolling forward off the 10 and shooting it in the lower side, or I can draw the cueball straight back from the 12 into the rail and off, and cut the 9 in the other side. The first way the 10 is the harder shot, the other way the 9. Straight back draw shots when the cueball is close to the object ball are amazingly controllable, and a shot like this is an often overlooked position play.

The 8 ball I could just stop on the 12 and make the 8 in the side. It would be a pretty high percentage for me on a table with 5" sides. Mine is tight at 4.5" and i made it most of the time. I set the 8 up on the diamond you showed and it was pretty easy. It was easier on the table than it looks in the diagram for some reason, at least I hope I set it up right.

The 7 ball I played as you did, rolling forward on the 12 and shooting it in the corner. Again, the shot had less angle in real life than it looked like on the diagram. I did not freeze the 7 to the rail and I made it 8 of 10. I always had a shot at it and when I missed it was undercut both times. If the 7 were frozen to the rail, then you would have a percentage shot that would separate some. Some people are good at these and others are not.

Chris

Interesting results Chris,
I don't think anyone thought of the 8 in the side, but yes, that shot should be better than 60% with decent pockets. I can't check the shot unfortunately as my table was packed up yesterday.

Also, nice insight on the draw back to the 9-ball. Unless you play position pretty badly, you should end up with a shot on the 9-ball that is at least as easy as playing the 10 ball with awkward bridging over the 4.

Just a thought, but if rolling through that 12 ball past the 2 ball wasn't quite on, then it would still be a relatively easy stun through into the 2 ball, bumping it out of the way, to leave a similar shot.

I'm not surprised that 4 to the 8 is dificult, especially stretching or using a rest to play the shot.

Colin