Fair? No way to sell a cue!

[8-Baller]

As long as the winning number is based on something that cannot be corrupted like a Powerball lottery, then the raffle system cannot be corrupted. If the seller sets the price too high in the raffle, then logically, nobody would buy into the raffle.... nothing to do with corruption....more to do with being on the wrong side of the supply/demand curves.

Quite frankly, I am amazed at how many people actually buy into raffles that are significantly overpriced. Each ticket you buy has a negative real value based on your actual probability and the fair market value of the cue. To put it in another way, you are "gifting" a portion of the money away to the seller with every ticket purchase. With that said, however, everyone has their own perceptions of fair market value. Some may have an exceptional personal attachment to the cue and may perceive a higher value for it.... in that case, the raffle may not be overpriced.

To each their own. Understandably, raffles are a form of gambling, and like gambling, there are psychological effects that accompany them that leads to irrational behavior (such as buying an overpriced raffle ticket).

At the end of the day, as long as the winning number is chosen by a neutral tamper-proof source, and the purchasers are happy with the ticket cost and its odds, then there really is no problem at all.....irregardless of the end value of the cue.

So have fun with it....

 

[s'portplayer]

If someone does this and one of the 20 slots win, he's taking a huge loss on the cue. I say let someone screw themself, I've still got a 1 in 42 chance, as advertised.

-s

If someone has an illegitimate raffle and has "non-AZ friends" get these 20 spots, with the 22 other slots going to legitimate AZ'rs at $10 a spot.

The owner just made $220 and still has the cue in question.

Sounds like a good "business practice" to me. :angry:

Now if the winning number is from a lottery number or something like that, I really don't care who buys tickets. But, I would prefer it to be and AZ member.

 

[Bastian]

What about when a guy sets up a raffle, 20 spots.. 17 people pay on time, and 3 people go out of touch or promise to pay 'soon', so the raffle continues. When they win, they pony up the cash real quick.. when they lose, they go out of touch permanently.

So instead, raffle guy decides at the last minute to 'eat' the cost of those 3 spots, so that the original 17 people who sent money get what they paid for.. a 1 in 20 shot at the cue. Lots of folks posted about the morality of a raffle owner purchasing spots in his own raffle.. I agree, that would just feel wrong to me.. but in the above mentioned case, it's actually a noble action taken to preserve the time and efforts of 17 other members. Would that feel less 'icky'? It certainly does to me, which makes me ultimately not care what the intentions or limitations are in a raffle.

So long as I get my fair 1 in 20 shot at the cue, using a lotto or dow closing or whatever, I don't much care how or by whom the other spots were acquired.

 

[kingwang]

If someone has an illegitimate raffle and has "non-AZ friends" get these 20 spots, with the 22 other slots going to legitimate AZ'rs at $10 a spot.

The owner just made $220 and still has the cue in question.

Sounds like a good "business practice" to me. :angry:

Now if the winning number is from a lottery number or something like that, I really don't care who buys tickets. But, I would prefer it to be and AZ member.

Then the raffler made $220 and has a 47.6% chance of losing a cue worth $420. So it does indeed sound like a good "business practice" to me

 

[fozzdich]

Actually it takes forever to get approved :frown: But I guess thats what keeps this forum legit.

Took about 3 days for me but I'm just a fozzdich:canoodle:

 

[mouse]

I have to disagree on the odds being the same. If seller has say 10 of the 42 spots then you no longer have a 1 in 42 its now a 1 in 32 chance of winning. It isnt that hard to get a membership. I just put in for my first bid this week and doubt I ever buy another spot as this just seems very unethical to have "Friends" buy spots. This has went on forever though. I know of a high dollar Bludworth getting raffled in Olathe years ago and the original owner brought it back home. It was laughed at how he raffled it and kept the cue and the money. Guess that comes to mind when I see raffles. Just my opinion.

ROBERT

 

[JB Cases]

So let's say the cue is a thousand dollars and there are 10 slots. The owner buys up 5 of them and collects 500 from AZBer's. His number hits, he pockets 500 bucks, keeps the cue and opens it up for another raffle. Sorry, in my opinion, if you're going to raffle something off then you shouldn't be buying slots for yourself or letting your friends off of AZB buy them up. The entire point of the raffle here, although there are no set guidelines, is to give fellow AZBer's a chance to win something at a really good price and allowing the owner to get rid of their merchandise at a price they want to get for it.

I'm also not fond of the people that win a 5 thousand dollar cue for 50 bucks then turn around and try to get rid of it for full profit. Yes, I know, it's their cue to do what they want with it, all I'm saying is that there are plenty of people out there that don't have the money to afford something like that and they joined in for the chance to own a high end cue.

As far as myself is concerned, I have no interest in getting involved in a raffle, I never win that type of shit. So, it has no bearing on me whatsoever what anyone does. These are just my thoughts on the subject.
MULLY

I agree with you.

Look at it this way.

If someone has access to wholesale prices then they could purchase a $100 cue for $50.

Then they raffle the cue for $10 a spot with 10 spots. Five of the ten spots are taken by the person offering the cue.

IF someone other than the cue owner wins the cue then the cue owner comes out even. If the cue owner wins then they essentially pocket $50 and still own the cue. It's a 50% shot at a free $50.

If the cue owner only takes 3 spots then they are guaranteed a 40% profit on the cue and get a 30% free roll at $70.

How many of you wouldn't take free shots at money? There is no way to lose under this type of scheme. Not that people should lose but it's generally accepted that the people doing the raffle shouldn't also be in it. This is generally the reason that employees and family members of employees are often forbidden from participating in contests sponsored by their employers.

None of this takes into account the shipping/fees etc... but I could easily see a scheme of this nature hatching in some people's brains.

Disclaimer: I have NO IDEA about the raffle in question. I DO think that raffles are generally regulated by the states and that IF one is going to run them on AZ then AT THE LEAST the participants should be AZ members of some standing. (post count maybe) in order to avoid impropriety.

 

[8-Baller]

I have to disagree on the odds being the same. If seller has say 10 of the 42 spots then you no longer have a 1 in 42 its now a 1 in 32 chance of winning. It isnt that hard to get a membership...

This is incorrect. You still have a 1/42 chance of winning if you hold one ticket. If the owner bought 10 spots, then the owner has a 24% chance of winning his cue back....but there was an opportunity cost to him, because that's 10 less tickets he could have sold for cash.

Even if the owner bought 41 spots......you still have a 1/42 chance of winning and the owner would have a 98% chance of winning his cue back.... but he only sold one spot....so he risks a 2% probability of losing his entire cue for the revenue of one spot

 

[8-Baller]

Ok....let's give this one a try:

If someone has access to wholesale prices as in your example, then he automatically starts off with a $50 profit (unrealized), because he can outright sell at $100, but it costed him $50.

Cost of Cue: $50
Value of the cue: $100

OWNER IS SITTING ON A $50 PROFIT IF HE DECIDES TO SELL THE CUE.

But he doesn't sell the cue, and decides to run the raffle as you specified.

SCENARIO ONE: SOMEONE ELSE WINS THE RAFFLE (50% probability)

Cost of Cue: $50
Proceeds from the Raffle: $50

OWNER MAKES $0

SCENARIO TWO: OWNER WINS THE RAFFLE (50% probability)

Cost of Cue: $50
Proceeds from the Raffle: $50
Value of the cue: $100

OWNER MAKES $100


SUMMARY

Owner starts off with a guaranteed $50 profit. But he decides to risk that by starting a raffle and taking half the spots. He has a 50% chance of turning his guaranteed $50 profit into $100 (he makes $50). But he also has a 50% chance of turning his guaranteed $50 profit into $0 (loses $50).

So....in the end.....it's all fair. By taking half the spots, the owner is just gambling his money away. There is no advantageous odds for the owner. Nobody is taking advantage of anyone....it all works out. Make sense?

I agree with you.

Look at it this way.

If someone has access to wholesale prices then they could purchase a $100 cue for $50.

Then they raffle the cue for $10 a spot with 10 spots. Five of the ten spots are taken by the person offering the cue.

IF someone other than the cue owner wins the cue then the cue owner comes out even. If the cue owner wins then they essentially pocket $50 and still own the cue. It's a 50% shot at a free $50.

If the cue owner only takes 3 spots then they are guaranteed a 40% profit on the cue and get a 30% free roll at $70.

How many of you wouldn't take free shots at money? There is no way to lose under this type of scheme. Not that people should lose but it's generally accepted that the people doing the raffle shouldn't also be in it. This is generally the reason that employees and family members of employees are often forbidden from participating in contests sponsored by their employers.

None of this takes into account the shipping/fees etc... but I could easily see a scheme of this nature hatching in some people's brains.

Disclaimer: I have NO IDEA about the raffle in question. I DO think that raffles are generally regulated by the states and that IF one is going to run them on AZ then AT THE LEAST the participants should be AZ members of some standing. (post count maybe) in order to avoid impropriety.

 

[jasonlaus]

I have to disagree on the odds being the same. If seller has say 10 of the 42 spots then you no longer have a 1 in 42 its now a 1 in 32 chance of winning. It isnt that hard to get a membership. I just put in for my first bid this week and doubt I ever buy another spot as this just seems very unethical to have "Friends" buy spots. This has went on forever though. I know of a high dollar Bludworth getting raffled in Olathe years ago and the original owner brought it back home. It was laughed at how he raffled it and kept the cue and the money. Guess that comes to mind when I see raffles. Just my opinion.

ROBERT

WOW!!! What kind of math is this? So you're saying your odds are better if the owner buys spots? You do realize that a 1 in 32 chance is better than a 1 in 42 chance? With this logic you're saying if the owner bought 41 of the 42 spots you would have a 1 in 1 chance of winning.

 

[nwtflogan]

lets make it easy, to make it at least somewhat honest i agree that all people buying inot the raffle should be payong members here on az. i just signed up myself for a year, but based on what im learning and the two raffles i have won i would want ti to be fair as well as birng in money to the site!!!!

if one of my freinds told me about this site and i had to sign up and pay to be a member to get a decent chance at a nice sue, i hardly think a few extra bucks would make any difference and we would weed out alot of the so called phantoms! does that make sense!!!

 

[jasonlaus]

lets make it easy, to make it at least somewhat honest i agree that all people buying inot the raffle should be payong members here on az. i just signed up myself for a year, but based on what im learning and the two raffles i have won i would want ti to be fair as well as birng in money to the site!!!!

if one of my freinds told me about this site and i had to sign up and pay to be a member to get a decent chance at a nice sue, i hardly think a few extra bucks would make any difference and we would weed out alot of the so called phantoms! does that make sense!!!

NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[nwtflogan]

if someone can fork out 30-80 bucks for a raffle why cant they fork another few bucks over to support the site they found it on and had that chance! i finally did it and i felt i owed it to the great people here and freinds i have met!

 

[kingwang]

I agree with you.

Look at it this way.

If someone has access to wholesale prices then they could purchase a $100 cue for $50.

Then they raffle the cue for $10 a spot with 10 spots. Five of the ten spots are taken by the person offering the cue.

IF someone other than the cue owner wins the cue then the cue owner comes out even. If the cue owner wins then they essentially pocket $50 and still own the cue. It's a 50% shot at a free $50.

If the cue owner only takes 3 spots then they are guaranteed a 40% profit on the cue and get a 30% free roll at $70.

How many of you wouldn't take free shots at money? There is no way to lose under this type of scheme. Not that people should lose but it's generally accepted that the people doing the raffle shouldn't also be in it. This is generally the reason that employees and family members of employees are often forbidden from participating in contests sponsored by their employers.

None of this takes into account the shipping/fees etc... but I could easily see a scheme of this nature hatching in some people's brains.

Disclaimer: I have NO IDEA about the raffle in question. I DO think that raffles are generally regulated by the states and that IF one is going to run them on AZ then AT THE LEAST the participants should be AZ members of some standing. (post count maybe) in order to avoid impropriety.

The flaw in this situation is that you neglect the possibility of him losing the cue. You assume that its a "freeroll" for money, but the flip side of that is that he loses the cue and doesn't get its entire value back in return. This is because the cue is technically worth $100, if 10 people are willing to buy in for $10 a spot, it is no longer a $50 cue. This is what is called a "profit".

8-Baller makes a similar point, so I suggest you review his post too.

 

[ridewiththewind]

Let's make this clearer...it is ILLEGAL to run 'for profit' raffles. Technically, they must be held by a non-profit organization, and by permit, in most cases.

If you guys continue to push the envelope, someone somewhere is going to go to the authorities...and that is a can o' worms you really do not wish to open.

Lisa

 

[jasonlaus]

if someone can fork out 30-80 bucks for a raffle why cant they fork another few bucks over to support the site they found it on and had that chance! i finally did it and i felt i owed it to the great people here and freinds i have met!

Well I guess we should all do whatever you do. What's your religion? occupation? what beer do you drink? what kind of car do you drive? so we can all do what you do. I'm happy you're happy I guess thats a start.

 

[kingwang]

Let's make this clearer...it is ILLEGAL to run 'for profit' raffles. Technically, they must be held by a non-profit organization, and by permit, in most cases.

If you guys continue to push the envelope, someone somewhere is going to go to the authorities...and that is a can o' worms you really do not wish to open.

Lisa

Sorry, no offense intended in this post, but are you being serious here or sarcastic? (I honestly can't tell over the internet)

In the case you are being serious, that pretty much kills the idea of a raffle or the idea of selling/business in general. And I'm pretty sure laws on this vary by jurisdiction and can't really be enforced on azbilliards since we have members from all over the world (azbilliards might not even be based in the US, I have no idea)

 

[Duce]

Then the raffler made $220 and has a 47.6% chance of losing a cue worth $420. So it does indeed sound like a good "business practice" to me

It doesn't take a Genius to figure out that the Raffler person, took the money and claims that a Non AZB member won and just kept the cue.

$220 and the cue is worth $420.

Desperated measures under the circumstance, IMO.

That's the Truth, but I may be wrong.

 

[Bamacues]

Sorry, no offense intended in this post, but are you being serious here or sarcastic? (I honestly can't tell over the internet)

In the case you are being serious, that pretty much kills the idea of a raffle or the idea of selling/business in general. And I'm pretty sure laws on this vary by jurisdiction and can't really be enforced on azbilliards since we have members from all over the world (azbilliards might not even be based in the US, I have no idea)

Whilst I don't really care, it is truthfully illegal. Yes, each jurisdiction has their own rules, and can choose to effect relief on any party in their jurisdiction.

The fact that it is interstate/international makes it a Federal jurisdiction matter, subject to the gaming laws for the internet.

Will anything ever come of it as far as legal intervention...very doubtful, but you can never be certain with the Feds.

 

[nwtflogan]

I drive Whatever I Want But i owne a bonneville ssei, Im A Auto Wholeasler, And Catholic! Does That Matter! And A Guy That Would Give The Shirt Off My Back To Help Another If I Could! Guess Im Bad!