good 9-ball break, bad luck

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evergruven

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
watching the WCOP, I saw several good breaks (made a ball, controlled the cb) where the cb ended up getting kicked in the pocket
it happens, but I think I noticed it more this past week, because of the stakes, and how one bad kick affected a match outcome so much
my question is: does something need to be done about this? and if so, what could be done?

9-ball is a luck game, especially for amateurs, but at the highest level, shouldn't we be doing what we can to emphasize pool skill?
I know it's "good for tv"/casual viewing, to see something so unexpected, but I felt for those players who hit it so good, and got it so bad...
 
You’ll never beat shear mathematical variance unless you institute rules that completely negate it. Which would be hard and also likely more boring to watch.

You could “fix” the break somehow with rules. But then it’s a slippery slop. Let’s say you get to break again if the cue ball scratches. Problem solved

Next, what happens when balls tie up or the cue ball lands in a bad spot? I’d argue that likely happens more than a scratch. What now?

Next, same thing on regular shots. What happens when you miss a ball and get a lucky safe?


Scratching on the break is just more obvious to people because it’s the time when they hit the balls the hardest and have the least control.

I’d be willing to bet, if you just took the amount of times top players scratch on the break and the amount of times they leave a poor or no shot for themselves or the incoming player, the scratches would be much, much lower.

Hell, just simple statistics says that some players regardless of skill level will be on the good or bad side of luck their entire career.

There are losing poker players who are actually very good, but statistical variance just isn’t on their side for their lifetime and there are moderately good players who are lifetime winners for the opposite reasons.

Obviously luck matters quite a bit less in pool since you’re not putting money on every single rack in a tournament. But the math still holds true. Some will just be “luckier” than others when the luck part kicks in.
 
And it happening “more” in one tournament is also just math playing out.

Making up numbers, but if the average is 10x per tournament, you will have some that may have close to zero, others close to 20x and the rest hover around 10x.

Just how probability and dispersion works.
 
vapoolplayer said:
You could “fix” the break somehow with rules. But then it’s a slippery slop. Let’s say you get to break again if the cue ball scratches. Problem solved

Next, what happens when balls tie up or the cue ball lands in a bad spot? I’d argue that likely happens more than a scratch. What now?
Click to expand...

thanks for the reply. I'm not sure I like the re-break off a scratch, but I appreciate the idea
I'm not sure what should/could be done, I just hate to see a well-struck cb be rewarded with bad luck
after the break, you could get hooked, but I suppose that's why we have the push-out
 
evergruven said:
thanks for the reply. I'm not sure I like the re-break off a scratch, but I appreciate the idea
I'm not sure what should/could be done, I just hate to see a well-struck cb be rewarded with bad luck
after the break, you could get hooked, but I suppose that's why we have the push-out
Click to expand...

‘Twas just an example.

Nothing can really be done. Well struck shots regardless of break or not, have a chance to get a bad roll.

One pocket already exists and typically has less luck. But, as one can see, it’s not built for the ADD fans most are and want to see something with a bit more action and chance.
 
vapoolplayer said:
‘Twas just an example.

Nothing can really be done. Well struck shots regardless of break or not, have a chance to get a bad roll.

One pocket already exists and typically has less luck. But, as one can see, it’s not built for the ADD fans most are and want to see something with a bit more action and chance.
Click to expand...
As a person with ADD, one pocket is my favorite game. More thrills than 9B if you understand the strategy involved.
 
vapoolplayer said:
‘Twas just an example.

Nothing can really be done. Well struck shots regardless of break or not, have a chance to get a bad roll.

One pocket already exists and typically has less luck. But, as one can see, it’s not built for the ADD fans most are and want to see something with a bit more action and chance.
Click to expand...

1p seems pretty fair
when a player hits a ball well, good things tend to happen
and when a player hits it bad, they're more likely to be punished
I don't think 9b is a whole lot different that way, just here and there

attention spans appear to be getting progressively shorter over time
from a business perspective, can't blame MR for investing in it
ironically, putting their resources in 9b seems like *less* of a gamble..
 
Hype Uh thesis:

Pressure is mostly irrelevant and acts by distraction. For example, players practice their break until they find the sweet spot. That sweet spot is a very complex intersection and not the point here except that the player will react to it in another complex way. As the requirements of a session change, a player drops too far behind or gets comfortably in front, the sense of the sweet spot can deform. Now the zone itself is suspect. The break gets hit slightly out of spec; no more magic. Ball gets out of line; more deformation. And that doesn't include that racker screwing with the rack - and on and on and so forth...
 
David in FL said:
If nine ball is such a game of luck, why do I keep getting beat by better players?! 😑
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You got nothing on this guy
Screenshot_20220620-223514_Google.jpg
 
While it can be hard to watch a well struck break leaving the player penalized by watching the cue ball get kissed into a pocket, there is a lot that luck brings to the game of 9 ball. Luck creates drama for the viewers because you never know what is going to happen. But more importantly luck puts pressure on the players.

Billy Incardona used to say that luck was an important part of 9 ball because it created additional adversity for the players, and that in the long run the player who handled the adversity the best would come out ahead. Howard Lederer said about poker: "In poker there is skill and there is luck, and one of the skills is dealing with the luck." In short, luck creates a lot of difficulty for the players who then have to manage through negative variance at times. Mental game becomes essential, both in dealing with variance and also in performing well in situations where total control isn't achievable. When it's hill-hill and you are preparing to break it is a lot to handle knowing that something horrible out of your control might happen, and it takes a very good mindset to stay focused on positive thoughts and deliver!

So all in all I like the luck on the break and think it is a requirement for varied and suspenseful play.

Now there is a different question which is whether the role of the break in the game of 9 ball has become too inflated. Should breaking be the most important skill in the game at the highest levels? Should the break and run percentage average 40% and climb past 50% at times for tournament winners? Does it grow our sport to have players travel across the world to step up for a competition and then get shut out 9-0 in two innings? These are my concerns. Matchroom has taken a few important steps in shrinking pocket size to help balance the break with post break performance. It is still disproportionate in my eyes but we all have our own preferences. To me though this is the real concern, whereas I think a little luck in 9 ball is part of the journey.
 
Agree, nothing needs to change as far as any rulesets go.

The most famous (IMO) example of this is the first Alex vs Shane TAR match (or a very early one). They were playing 10 ball, both were breaking great, but Alex would have his CB that was parked in the center of the table get kicked to a bad position. Shane's CB was hopping after it hit the 1, and the ball that was kicking Alex's CB, would pass under Shane's CB. Alex spent the entire match trying to copy Shanes break to avoid that kiss.
 
Tin Man said:
Now there is a different question which is whether the role of the break in the game of 9 ball has become too inflated. Should breaking be the most important skill in the game at the highest levels? Should the break and run percentage average 40% and climb past 50% at times for tournament winners? Does it grow our sport to have players travel across the world to step up for a competition and then get shut out 9-0 in two innings? These are my concerns. Matchroom has taken a few important steps in shrinking pocket size to help balance the break with post break performance. It is still disproportionate in my eyes but we all have our own preferences. To me though this is the real concern, whereas I think a little luck in 9 ball is part of the journey.
Click to expand...
Alternate break. Tennis and serve is a good analogy. At least in tennis, the person receiving the serve has some control over his fate.
 
alphadog said:
It isn't a good break if you scratch.
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Disagree with this. If you make a ball, squat the CB in the middle of the table, and then the CB gets kicked into a pocket by another ball, that is an act of pure bad luck. A "good break" means doing whatever is in your control to end up with a successful break (hit the rack square to maximize your chances of making a ball and control the CB). Bad luck is, by definition, not in your control, so it has no impact on whether the break was good or bad. Even the best breaks end up with the CB getting kicked into the pocket due to bad luck -- I wouldn't want to call these bad breaks, just bad luck. It just goes to show that pool has a fair amount of luck involved in it.
 
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