How Would You Play This? 12/19/08

[Jude Rosenstock]

I can't see myself ever playing safe here. To win matches against strong opponents you need to get out every time you are supposed to and maybe a couple times when you're not supposed to. I think the safety should be the last resort here and not the first option.

If there were other balls to get behind and actually force a kick it would be better. You're going to separate the balls and leave your opponent something. I don't like giving my opponents the first chance to win the game. My opinion and my style of play of course. I'm not saying anyone is wrong here.

Well, this is one of those shots (I think, at least) where there's going to be varying opinion. You know I respect both you, Lockwood & SJM's opinion very much so and I also know there's mutual respect amongst us. The bottom line, there are pitfalls. You have to be aware of those pitfalls when you make your decision. Slow cloth, sticky balls, unpredictable rails could all play a part in this. It's important to play to your strengths.

I'm actually a bit surprised SJM didn't like Neil's suggestion. That's a shot SJM plays very well.

 

[Russ Chewning]

Anyone who can get really good shape on the safety can probably break the cluster, but no matter. Let's say you choose to play onto the safety and succeed. If executed well. the eight moves just an inch or two, and the eight and the nine, which are frozen, will separate. I doubt the safety would result in a snooker as often as 5% of the time when the eight is frozen to the bottom cushion, and even then, the kick safe repsonse isn't terribly difficult. Actually, if the eight and nine don't separate, the response to the safety is even easier than if they do separate anywhere from a few inches to a foot. If the eight and the nine do separate, then the safety battle is on, and you, having played the safe have an advantage, but my guess is you'll only win seven times out of ten given the position.

It doesn't make sense to treat the safety as a shot that will win the rack here. A good tactician has a fair chance to win the rack even responding to that safety.

In my opinion, the safety is not a no-brainer, but a play that's way too passive. A good player can go for the win, while retaining a reasonable chance to win the rack even if the breakout is not executed.

I respect your opinion, but strongly disagree with it.

100% agree. In my mind, there are only two options:

1. Play a draw/stun shot just under the back side of the 9 with a medium stroke. If you intend to hit with 1/2 tip of stun draw and accidentally get 3/4 tip, you either hit the 9 in the face (hooking yourself on the 8) or you scratch off it. Your target is approximately 1/2 ball wide.

2. Play a natural 2 railer by cutting the 6 thin. Little chance to get hooked. And your target is nearly a diamond and a half wide on the second rail.

I myself try to be a well rounded pool player. In addition to watching 9-ball, One Pocket, and 8-ball, I also have a few three cushion DVDs I break out from time to time.

There are so many bad things that can happen with a less than perfect hit when coming straight off the 6 that can lose the game for you.

Russ

 

[SmoothStroke]

Anyone who can get really good shape on the safety can probably break the cluster, but no matter. Let's say you choose to play onto the safety and succeed. If executed well. the eight moves just an inch or two, and the eight and the nine, which are frozen, will separate. I doubt the safety would result in a snooker as often as 5% of the time when the eight is frozen to the bottom cushion, and even then, the kick safe repsonse isn't terribly difficult. Actually, if the eight and nine don't separate, the response to the safety is even easier than if they do separate anywhere from a few inches to a foot. If the eight and the nine do separate, then the safety battle is on, and you, having played the safe have an advantage, but my guess is you'll only win seven times out of ten given the position.

It doesn't make sense to treat the safety as a shot that will win the rack here. A good tactician has a fair chance to win the rack even responding to that safety.

In my opinion, the safety is not a no-brainer, but a play that's way too passive. A good player can go for the win, while retaining a reasonable chance to win the rack even if the breakout is not executed.

I respect your opinion, but strongly disagree with it.

All valid points.
I still like my chances with my opponet having to kick from the bottom rail with not many options other than to pray he doesn't sell out.
I don't like sending my cue ball around the world.

Another thought is the timing of a situation:
What do you do in real time with emotions gnawing at you. What we see on a PC or as a spectator can change quickly when we are at the table, I think most will agree. Would a player, play the shot the same everytime in situations like these.

Race to 9
You are down 8-0
You are up 8-0
You are down 7-4 / your brain is struggling and he is in nice stroke
0-0
etc. I think you get the picture

Would you play the shot or any of the estimated 4 quadrillion shots on a pool table the same way in certain situations?
I agree to play confident and go for the win. I have complete confidence in my cue ball and may play the break out. I may also play safe.
Have you ever watched a match and the guy next to you looks at you and says: in disbelief ,, what the He// did he do that for?
Hero to Zero in 3 strokes getting ready to rack.
Whether you go for it or dump the cue ball I think emotions and situations dictate heavily on the choice selected.


Respectfully SS

 

[td873]

My teammate had this situation last night and for the life of me, I couldn't think of a great plan.

Shooter has ball-in-hand. What would you do?

EDIT: This is 9-ball and the 6 is very deep in the pocket.

I didn't read the rest of the posts, so this might be a repeat: shoot the 90 degree breakout at a soft pace. I shot this number of times times on my table, and the 8 rolled in front of the hole a few times.

CueTable Help

If you hit the 9 in the face, well, you might have problems, so play for the outside of the 9 and/or the rail first.

The best part is, if you miss the 9 completely, you have a simple safe built in.

CueTable Help

-td

 

[td873]

In addition to the ones already suggested an option that I like for the breakout would be below. I feel there's a good margin for error going this way.

CueTable Help

I'm not a big fan of this.

Although this has a bigger margin for error to hit the 8 or the 9, there are too many downsides for this to be the money shot. Not only is the cue ball traveling ~15 feet attempting to hit a ~6" target, you have to hit it with a little speed since you don't know what side of the target you are going to hit. All you can do is hope to hit the 8 or the 9 in a good spot to end up with something workable. Big gamble. At best you have a 50-50 chance of ending up with a makable shot IF you hit the cluster.

BUT, if you miss the 9 completely, you are dead in the water.

CueTable Help

I would take the alternative high percentage first shot that results in an almost "guaranteed" second shot. That is, even if you put the cluster breakout results at 50-50, you are ahead since the punishment for missing the cluster isn't being hooked.

-td

 

[Russ Chewning]

After trying the two railer, I've changed my mind..It was a bit harder to judge where the CB was going to hit the first rail than I thought. I think I like the one rail stun shot a bit better, even with the possibility of getting hooked.

Speed on the two railer had to be hit hard enuff to come back out in the middle of the table, and this made the shot a bit more difficult than it would normally be.

Might work a lot better on a barbox!! Lol..

Russ

 

[terhje]

as

Safe. leaving the bank for double kiss.

CueTable Help

anybody know why i get this extra page everytime i post cuetasble?

 

[sjm]

BUT, if you miss the 9 completely, you are dead in the water.

CueTable Help

Not only aren't you dead in the water in this position, you're almost 50% to win. The safety here is well known and it is pretty strong. If you kick at the eight and catch it two rails and thin, the eight, more or less, stays where it is, and the cue ball goes long, leavng a difficult position.

If you don't know this safety, you need to learn it. I saw George "Ginky" San Souci practicing this very shot about two weeks ago at The Amsterdam Billiard Club, and he had no trouble executing it time after time after time. That doesn't meant anyone else can get it right time after time, but a good player should be successful with this shot most of the time.

If you try it, you'll be surprised how effective this safety really is. I fully accounted for the fact that I might end up with this if I failed to hit the cluster when I praised the Chris Lynch shot.

Here's the idea:

CueTable Help

 

[APA7]

BUT, if you miss the 9 completely, you are dead in the water.

CueTable Help

Not only aren't you dead in the water in this position, you're almost 50% to win. The safety here is well known and it is pretty strong. If you kick at the eight and catch it two rails and thin, the eight, more or less, stays where it is, and the cue ball goes long, leavng a difficult position.

If you don't know this safety, you need to learn it. I saw George "Ginky" San Souci practicing this very shot about two weeks ago at The Amsterdam Billiard Club, and he had no trouble executing it time after time after time. That doesn't meant anyone else can get it right time after time, but a good player should be successful with this shot most of the time.

If you try it, you'll be surprised how effective this safety really is. I fully accounted for the fact that I might end up with this if I failed to hit the cluster when I praised the Chris Lynch shot.

Here's the idea:

CueTable Help

Why would U play 2 leave a kick when U can play 4 a straight shot on the 8 if U miss?? :sorry:

Brian

 

[sjm]

Why would U play 2 leave a kick when U can play 4 a straight shot on the 8 if U miss?? :sorry:

Brian

I wouldn't. I was rebutting the comment that I'd have a problem if I made a mistake and left this position.

If you choose a defensive strategy in the original position and play shape for a safety, you surely don't play shape for this safety!

 

[td873]

If you try it, you'll be surprised how effective this safety really is. I fully accounted for the fact that I might end up with this if I failed to hit the cluster when I praised the Chris Lynch shot.

I redrew your shot, since your diagram actually showed the 8 going up table, and not the cue ball.

CueTable Help

My characterization of "dead in the water" was probably too strong. But it gets the point across. Put in words that SJM might not dislike as much: this isn't a shot you would shoot with ball in hand.

To be fair, the 2 rail kick safety is a good shot to have in your bag of tricks, but it is a reply shot (or oops shot), and not a shot you would set up for, or hope to end up with.

Despite your characterization, this shot is more difficult to execute than you let on. It is difficult for most people to hit the top edge of the object ball off of 2 rails . Why do you think Ginky was actually practicing it? I don't think it's because he thought he was already a 50% favorite to win... IMO, he wanted to avoid the 2 biggest problems with this shot: (1) whiffing the 8 ball or (2) hitting it too full. Both of which I've seen happen 10X more than properly executing this shot (pro players included).

On top of the inherent difficulty of playing a 2 rail kick shot aiming at 1/2 a ball, this shot will play different on diffferent tables and with different equipment and with different cue ball positions (as you might be shooting with more/less english).

As for the post in question: there are benefits to playing it with the 2 rail (hope to) break out, but IMO, there are too many variables to contend with, and there are other options available that may yield successful results. You only have to make 3 balls, and you don't get style points.

KISS quiz:
[1] A thin cut with a 2 rail cluster breakout shot with an unknown result. Which must be shot with a little speed since you need the balls to separate (and don't know exactly where you will hit the cluster). But, if you miss you do have the opportunity to shoot a 2 rail kick safe.

[2] Line the cue ball up to hit the cluster on a natural angle. If you miss the cluster you shoot a safe where you can see the whole object ball.

I suppose some would shoot [1], just not me.

-td