This was my first thought when I read the beginning of the thread.
While I'm curious to see Neils solution played out, and can understand the "why" behind it, I'm not nearly skilled enough to make that shot a reasonable option.
Thanks for the thread, Ingo!
In a close match I would prefer the safe and take my chances with them getting lucky. If the carom on the three off the two is not laying correct then who ever makes the one without a definite plan for the two and three will be the underdog in this game. I'll take my chances even with Efren kicking at the one ball. I'll wait for a higher chance percentage wise than 50/50 or 50/60. I'm not risking a key game with those type of percentages. If I don't have a safety option then I would have to play with these low percentages.
If I get ball in hand that would give me multiply options.
So for the cash I can move the one up to the other end and give you BIH and you will take that as opposed to shooting for the cash from where they lay and playing the carom?
Conservative:
Make the 1 and come to the same height as 2/3. Shoot square into the 2, sending the 2 to the opposite short rail while drawing the CB to the short rail on the left.... leaving blocking balls in the way.
Aggressive:
Shoot the 1 with low inside to get to the top rail. Carom the 3 in and knock the 2 to the side, setting up for the low left pocket.
Neil;
Consider, the safety shot suggested, with a little high right on the CB and coming in behind the 2/3 and perhaps(most certainly) separating them and leaving a runout if BIH. This is a common 1pt shot and is not that hard, and suggests a much better safety.
Mike
Bank the one ball 3 rails to the end rail and stop the cueball. That way you only need to control the object ball.
Can't really tell by the diagram, but it might be possible to just make the one, spinning the cb over to the rail by the 2-3. Then carom off the two lightly to make the 3 and then the 2 in the opposite corner.
http://pool.bz/P/?@4AAOk3BWBp3CYNw4...VJMm4VAOJ3WYNw3WcQi4kORM4kDIj3kaxr3lbGs3lYFg@
Sure, there's lots of safes there. But, why play safe when you ran it out 8 out of 10 times??