I Need An Odds-Maker

Chicagoplayer

Chicagoplayer

AzB Gold Member
Gold Member
Silver Member
It seems to me that in all my years of tournament participation and watching players who are from the same country or even road partners, wind up playing each other far more often than not in the early rounds, when the odds would seem to favour a more random draw.

I’ve seen it happen often, and I’ve had it happen to me more often than pure chance would have it.

Have you ever seen a situation like this?
Example:
Bustamante & Efren enter a tournament and immediately, they’re playing against each other.

I just saw Appleton v’s Sanderson happen in the first round.

I just saw 2 Taiwanese ladies players, travel 9,500 miles to San Juan, Puerto Rico to end up playing each other in the first round.

I know that a lot hinges on the number of players competing, but what are the odds?
 
Sort by date Sort by votes
Zerksies said:
That's pretty easy math.

It's the player filed multiplied times the player field minus one. In a 64 player field it would be 64 x 63 players.

You have a possibility of 4032 combination of matches
Click to expand...

There are that many combinations that can happen, but the chances of any two players playing each other is much less than that, because there is a 1/64 chance that any single slot would end up with a single payer and it decreases as more names are put in. So if Bob and Bill entered a tournament and Bob was the first name picked, there is a 1/63 chance now that Bill would end up paying him. If neither Bob nor Bill were picked in say the first half of the draw, now we are at 1/32 per bracket picked or lower those two buddies will play each other.
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
I rather think when players register has a lot to do with it. If two players traveling from the same place get in line together, any auto seeding in place might not auto split them up. And then there's stacking the draw...
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
The thing with 'random' seeding is that we are bad at seeing random. This is why i-tunes had to put in an algorithm to make their 'random' selections less random after countless complaints about same artist being played too often, esp back2back. Then once we have an idea in our heads, we have confirmation bias to deal with so we will notice two pinoys playing in the 1st round but not the Poles who avoided one another till the quarters despite like 8 dudes in the tournament. It's either that or time of registration as stated above imo, but I lean towards our poor recognition of randomness.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Pin
Upvote 0 Downvote
WobblyStroke said:
The thing with 'random' seeding is that we are bad at seeing random. This is why i-tunes had to put in an algorithm to make their 'random' selections less random after countless complaints about same artist being played too often, esp back2back. Then once we have an idea in our heads, we have confirmation bias to deal with so we will notice two pinoys playing in the 1st round but not the Poles who avoided one another till the quarters despite like 8 dudes in the tournament. It's either that or time of registration as stated above imo, but I lean towards our poor recognition of randomness.
Click to expand...
That is true. People can pick out patterns from almost any random sequence, and falsely regard randomness as something without a detectable pattern or repetition. If a sequence is truly random, it doesn't necessarily look random, the randomness is in the generation of the sequence not in the result. True random draws could have the same people matched against each other in the first round 10 tournaments in a row, or none.

HOWEVER, in some tournaments the draws are not random at all and especially smaller, local tournaments use non-random draws to weed out the out-of-towners by having them play each other early, in order to favour the hometown favourites. If not that, then they use the table allocations. So if the hometown guy is facing a good out-of-towner, they put them on the gaffy table that the hometown guy knows. They can also use playing times, so if they know someone has to travel to get there, they put their match on at the most inconvenient time etc..There are so many tricks like that, that you could probably write a book about it. Most players who travel have probably faced several of these.
 
Last edited:
Upvote 0 Downvote
hang-the-9 said:
There are that many combinations that can happen, but the chances of any two players playing each other is much less than that, because there is a 1/64 chance that any single slot would end up with a single payer and it decreases as more names are put in. So if Bob and Bill entered a tournament and Bob was the first name picked, there is a 1/63 chance now that Bill would end up paying him. If neither Bob nor Bill were picked in say the first half of the draw, now we are at 1/32 per bracket picked or lower those two buddies will play each other.
Click to expand...
It's simple math 64 players times 63 available players total combination or odds for round 1 . This is for the over all field of players. The odds are changing after every round, this is not continuous. Round two the odds are 992/1. Now the first round, it's the same odds of me getting a bye or getting Bob or SVB. If i advance and Bob gets kicked out the odds are now zero. This is like any gambling the odds are changing every time a card is dealt.
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
Zerksies said:
It's simple math 64 players times 63 available players total combination or odds for round 1 . This is for the over all field of players. The odds are changing after every round, this is not continuous. Round two the odds are 992/1. Now the first round, it's the same odds of me getting a bye or getting Bob or SVB. If i advance and Bob gets kicked out the odds are now zero. This is like any gambling the odds are changing every time a card is dealt.
Click to expand...
for 'simple math' u sure did biff it with that 992:1 lol. ur odds to run into a partner if the 2 of u enter together in a field of 64 are 62:1 in round 1. Your odds of running into him increase as the field gets smaller.
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
Straightpool_99 said:
That is true. People can pick out patterns from almost any random sequence, and falsely regard randomness as something without a detectable pattern or repetition. If a sequence is truly random, it doesn't necessarily look random, the randomness is in the generation of the sequence not in the result. True random draws could have the same people matched against each other in the first round 10 tournaments in a row, or none.

HOWEVER, in some tournaments the draws are not random at all and especially smaller, local tournaments use non-random draws to weed out the out-of-towners by having them play each other early, in order to favour the hometown favourites. If not that, then they use the table allocations. So if the hometown guy is facing a good out-of-towner, they put them on the gaffy table that the hometown guy knows. They can also use playing times, so if they know someone has to travel to get there, they put their match on at the most inconvenient time etc..There are so many tricks like that, that you could probably write a book about it. Most players who travel have probably faced several of these.
Click to expand...
Ye that local favoritism cost Reyes and Busty a bunch of tourneys in the 80s and early 90s in the US. Not only did they match em up early but when they did go deep, guys in audience would be coughing and moving around when they down. Refs would make awful calls. In one telecast a player in commentary even mentioned Busty 'got jobbed'. It was blatant man. He made a 2 rail kick but the ball was cut back into the rail and ref called a no rail foul. Telecast covered it up and showed a replay of the shot coming off the rail into OB and stopped it there leaving you to assume ball never made it back to the rail but it clearly did and Busty was beside himself. He got jobbed indeed. And this was at top class events. Just imagine the shit they get up to in the small local stuff. Everything you mentioned and more.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Pin
Upvote 0 Downvote
got to remember when an out of towner comes to your tournament because its easy money for him he is taking money away from you in one way or another.

so fairness not fairness to him but maybe so. the t.d. or whomever makes arrangements so that he has a much harder time winning.
as why let someone take advantage of your customers that doesnt bring anything back to the table for you.

the road player thinks he is getting screwed and the locals do as well. and both are right.
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
I have known a double handful of tournament directors, usually a room owner or employee, that insisted on doing the draw behind closed doors. Strangers, particularly strangers traveling together, were pretty sure to get the gooey end of the stick.

"Fair" is definitely a matter of perspective. Aside from local/stranger the ramifications of the traveler winning has to be considered. They take a bite out of the pie but they are not going to do a thing to increase business. Tournaments are rarely short term profitable but can be used to raise the profile of a hall and increase business. Strangers coming in and grabbing the big chunks of change have the opposite effect. "Strangers always win. I think they make a deal with the owner!"

There was a pub a few miles from my shop. I dropped in there now and then to BS and try something new I had turned on their tables. I always did this off hours and I was unknown to the evening crowd. When they got ready to have a decent paying tournament, a few thousand guarantee, I told them I wouldn't play, might have a flashback to '84 and all of their regulars would feel robbed.

Some draws are unfair, some completely fair draws seem unfair. Try the powerball. Five plays on the same ticket will be much closer to in sequence than five separate tickets. Either way your odds are the same 300,000,000 to 1 or something ridiculous. It certainly seems more interesting when you get a random spread of numbers instead of something that obviously ain't random though. Now the draw is done with software and we can be pretty sure which draws won't have a winner.

I remember the nickel or dime raffles in early grade school that they held in Catholic schools. A tray of cupcakes, or maybe a cake was a common prize, donated by a mother. Didn't take me too long to notice that the odds of one of the poorer children winning were far better than the odds of a better off kid winning.

When you can't trust the penguins, who do you think you can trust? I may be paranoid but that doesn't mean I am wrong when I think most of the people I meet are trying to get over on me one way or another.

Hu
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
Chicagoplayer said:
It seems to me that in all my years of tournament participation and watching players who are from the same country or even road partners, wind up playing each other far more often than not in the early rounds, when the odds would seem to favour a more random draw.

I’ve seen it happen often, and I’ve had it happen to me more often than pure chance would have it.

Have you ever seen a situation like this?
Example:
Bustamante & Efren enter a tournament and immediately, they’re playing against each other.

I just saw Appleton v’s Sanderson happen in the first round.

I just saw 2 Taiwanese ladies players, travel 9,500 miles to San Juan, Puerto Rico to end up playing each other in the first round.

I know that a lot hinges on the number of players competing, but what are the odds?
Click to expand...
Dr. James Alcock in his article "The Belief Engine" details this tendency in the human brain to attribute more weight to "significant pairings" than to "nonsignificant pairings".

Example: You touch a hot stove as a kid, burn the crap out of yourself, and for the rest of your life, you will be extremely careful about touching a stove, even when your are fairly sure it has not been turned on, and is not hot. No amount of times of touching a cold stove will reduce this tendency.

It is an evolutionary survival mechanism, to MAKE SURE we pay attention to pairings of action/stimuli/results that increase our odds of surviving, or not injuring ourselves..

This brain mechanism creates all sorts of interesting biases / assumptions, long term. Absolutely, 100% guaranteed that over the long term, these players play each other at exactly the rate predicted by the number of players a specific country sends, compared to the tournament pool. Assuming an actual random draw, and tournament directors are not seeding players.
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
Chicagoplayer said:
It seems to me that in all my years of tournament participation and watching players who are from the same country or even road partners, wind up playing each other far more often than not in the early rounds, when the odds would seem to favour a more random draw.

I’ve seen it happen often, and I’ve had it happen to me more often than pure chance would have it.

Have you ever seen a situation like this?
Example:
Bustamante & Efren enter a tournament and immediately, they’re playing against each other.

I just saw Appleton v’s Sanderson happen in the first round.

I just saw 2 Taiwanese ladies players, travel 9,500 miles to San Juan, Puerto Rico to end up playing each other in the first round.

I know that a lot hinges on the number of players competing, but what are the odds?
Click to expand...

It would take some work to write a program to prevent most of this, but it could be done fairly easy by classifying those players respective groups and mixing the groups on the tournament sheet, so it doesn't happen so early in the tournament.

It's a good call that you brought it up. I think its fixable. I've had the same thing happen to me at events and I think it comes from me and my road partner registering one behind the other for the event.
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
336Robin said:
... I think its fixable. I've had the same thing happen to me at events and I think it comes from me and my road partner registering one behind the other for the event.
Click to expand...
I've seen it fixed. In one international tournament, the TD made sure that players from the same country/area did not play each other in the early rounds.

But if a TD tried to do that in most US tournaments, I think there would be a lot of complaints. "Everyone else does random draws. Why are you separating Fedor and Josh in the draw? They should be drawn randomly like the rest of us."
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
Bob Jewett said:
I've seen it fixed. In one international tournament, the TD made sure that players from the same country/area did not play each other in the early rounds.

But if a TD tried to do that in most US tournaments, I think there would be a lot of complaints. "Everyone else does random draws. Why are you separating Fedor and Josh in the draw? They should be drawn randomly like the rest of us."
Click to expand...

It takes some pioneering that is for sure. The same old way isn't always the best way.
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
Zerksies said:
It's simple math 64 players times 63 available players total combination or odds for round 1 . This is for the over all field of players. The odds are changing after every round, this is not continuous. Round two the odds are 992/1. Now the first round, it's the same odds of me getting a bye or getting Bob or SVB. If i advance and Bob gets kicked out the odds are now zero. This is like any gambling the odds are changing every time a card is dealt.
Click to expand...

Yes but you are not calculating how many different total draws the tournament can have. When a draw is done, Player A goes into Bracket 1. If there are 64 players, the chances of any of those players going to Bracket 1 is 1/64. Now Player B goes to Bracket 2, there are 63 players left, so the chances of Player A playing Player B (who may be a guy from next door to you that dated your sister and ran over your cat) is 1/63 and if you both are not put into the bracket till later, the chances are higher and higher. If that player did not get that spot, the chances of you meeting him in the first round is now 0, so the chances of you playing someone you came in with are 1/63. The larger number you got is just the total different combinations of matches that are possible if you just keep randomizing the draw and never repeat it till it repeats due to no more options.
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
hang-the-9 said:
Yes but you are not calculating how many different total draws the tournament can have. When a draw is done, Player A goes into Bracket 1. If there are 64 players, the chances of any of those players going to Bracket 1 is 1/64. Now Player B goes to Bracket 2, there are 63 players left, so the chances of Player A playing Player B (who may be a guy from next door to you that dated your sister and ran over your cat) is 1/63 and if you both are not put into the bracket till later, the chances are higher and higher. If that player did not get that spot, the chances of you meeting him in the first round is now 0, so the chances of you playing someone you came in with are 1/63. The larger number you got is just the total different combinations of matches that are possible if you just keep randomizing the draw and never repeat it till it repeats due to no more options.
Click to expand...
I have never stated ANYTHING for the entire tournament. I‘ve stated for round 1 , round 2 tops. It has moving variables. Unless you give me exact specifics.
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
I seem to recall hearing a lecture or interview with a stats professor.

He said one of things he'd do is separate a class into two groups. One group would be tasked with flipping a coin 100 times and recording the results. The other group was told to create an imagined sequence of a coin being flipped 100 times. He asked them to do this several times and to post their results on a chalk board. He'd then leave the class room.

On his return he'd immediately identify which sequences were random by coin flip and which the students had created. He said he was able to do that because the sequences of flipped coins would invariably have longer strings of heads or tails.

IOWs, random will produce coincidences that seem improbable to us.

Lou Figueroa
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top