True. When I first heard this scenario, I was very convinced it was 50/50 also. I didn't argue it like he did, but I actually sat down and tried it with a buddy for a while. It didn't take me long to realize I was mistaken. I've explained this problem to many friends over the years, and there will always be people who will die on the 50/50 hill.
Yes, I was wrong.I only read the first 10 pages or so. Did Major Miscue ever come around?
The 50/50 hill of life is the worst place to die period.
Yes, instead of typing, just sit down and do it. My wife is a very intelligent person, book smart, masters degree, etc. She is also very stubborn. I took every dollar she had, playing the two duces and an ace game. She had to then spend 15 minutes on the net, before yielding
she was not happyYes, instead of typing, just sit down and do it. My wife is a very intelligent person, book smart, masters degree, etc. She is also very stubborn. I took every dollar she had, playing the two duces and an ace game. She had to then spend 15 minutes on the net, before yielding
Because the 'logic' is completely illogical. You can't make a 2/3rds probability into a 50-50 probability by assuming it is 50-50. Nor is it logical when you have a 2/3rds chance of winning to try to turn that into a 50-50 chance of winning.
People get misled because they mistakenly believe that if there are 2 possibilities the odds for each are 50-50. Which is false.
Like you and so many others, I thought the answer Vos Savant proposed was wrong and counterintuitive....but then I looked at her explanation and it is obvious. People holding doctorates in Statistics were also irate and dismissive of Vos Savant's answer at the time, and wrote scathing letters to her, only to have to eat crow later when the proof was provided. I explained this to a Ph.D. from Harvard who just couldn't fathom my reasoning (and I gave a clear explanation like has been done in this thread). Some people refuse to accept new information that may change their preconceived position, and this is a problem in society now that goes much deeper than this Monty Hall problem, unfortunately.
That’s a dependent trails process. Card removal changes what’s left in the deck from which you draw from. 16 cards remaining.
I’m ready to learn.
The extreme example to prove this is the one I offered early on in this thread, having 100 doors instead of 3 doors, and Monty, with his knowledge of which door contains the car, opens 98 other doors with the goat behind all of them. leaving only your door and one other door.Yes, instead of typing, just sit down and do it. My wife is a very intelligent person, book smart, masters degree, etc. She is also very stubborn. I took every dollar she had, playing the two duces and an ace game. She had to then spend 15 minutes on the net, before yielding
