Interesting FB post about FargoRate

[mikepage]

I would agree that if it's truly random there would be little to no effect. I'm just not sure IIRC that it IS truly random. I would want to see a real world sample of how often it happens to know for sure. There would be mitigating circumstances if say, there are several sandbaggers that AREN'T truly 450's, which we KNOW is the case.

You (and other here) misunderstood that situation. That 450 REALLY IS a 450: 450 for thousands of games in big tournaments, 450 for lots of league games, and 450 for lots of games in little tournaments. It is this recent small batch of tournaments that was anomalous. It's not clear these recent tournaments happened at all.

 

[Jaden]

You (and other here) misunderstood that situation. That 450 REALLY IS a 450: 450 for thousands of games in big tournaments, 450 for lots of league games, and 450 for lots of games in little tournaments. It is this recent small batch of tournaments that was anomalous. It's not clear these recent tournaments happened at all.

I'm not confused at all. I know someone who saw and played against several of those 450's and know EXACTLY how they play. What was kind of funny, is that we were JUST talking about these players in several tourneys in the DFW area that were OBVIOUSLY sandbagging prior to this happening.

Jaden

 

[mikepage]

I'm not confused at all. I know someone who saw and played against several of those 450's and know EXACTLY how they play. What was kind of funny, is that we were JUST talking about these players in several tourneys in the DFW area that were OBVIOUSLY sandbagging prior to this happening.

Jaden

If you think the 450 was ever sandbagging, then I believe you are confused.

 

[easy-e]

If you think the 450 was ever sandbagging, then I believe you are confused.

I only scanned those tournaments briefly. My take was that a 700+ player was either winning very close matches to low rated players or losing to those players in a blowout. I assumed the higher player was trying to lower their score.

 

[hang-the-9]

I would agree that if it's truly random there would be little to no effect. I'm just not sure IIRC that it IS truly random. I would want to see a real world sample of how often it happens to know for sure. There would be mitigating circumstances if say, there are several sandbaggers that AREN'T truly 450's, which we KNOW is the case.

BTW, I commend you for ferreting out those statistically anomolous and obviously contrived entries that this thread is based on.

Jaden

p.s. I'll capitulate the point for this for now as I just don't have the time to invest right now to truly test it.

The odd feeling that people have that Fargo does not work well in handicapped situations (or for different games or for different tables) is that often their logic and "feeling" does not match up with the math and statistics. Statistics does not care about single people results, or even a small group of people or a small sample of a single tournament, it cares about the overall graphing of match results over the years put into it. It even handles outlier games like one pocket since in general the better the player the better their one pocket game is. In general. Yes, we may be able to name like 5 players on the planet that can stick with guys like Fedor and Shane in one pocket that can't beat them in 9 or 10 ball, but that is way out of the statistical realm of significance.

 

[sjm]

Yes, we may be able to name like 5 players on the planet that can stick with guys like Fedor and Shane in one pocket that can't beat them in 9 or 10 ball, but that is way out of the statistical realm of significance.

Yes, another rivalry that defies Fargo is that Evan Lunda (751) has absolutely owned Josh Filler (836) at bank pool. At nine-ball, of course, Josh is a very heavy favorite in a race to 11.

 

[hang-the-9]

Except you're not allowing for the other cut shorts. the 2-1, 2-0, even 2-2 or 2-3. The difference in it being cut short can be 4-6 games, versus only 2 games MAX in the other direction.

Now I conceded it would depend how often those types of cut shorts happen as to how much of a statistical effect it has, but the difference could be substantial.

Jaden

The issue is that if the player is only going to 2 vs a 6 then the chances of them beating them 2-1 or 2-2 or even 2-4 is not great, it is much more likely that they will win hill hill. Fargo goes by what it sees happen between players of two different abilities that actually happens and then predicts what will happen with two similar rated players based on the matches it has in the system.

I just went through an 8 ball tournament that was handicapped with me giving up 3-2 vs everyone I played (I was one of 3 top rated players and the other two lost early so I never played any of them). I won 3-0, 3-0, 3-0, 3-1 and lost 1-2 in the finals. So the predicted results if it went hill hill would have been 3-1, 3-1, 3-1, 3-1 and 3-1 that is 15 wins for me and 5 for them. What happened in reality was 13 wins for me and 3 for them, right in line there with 2 taken from both sides of the predicted win/loss games. Several of the games I won were pretty close, with a few of them the other guy was on the 8 but did not convert on the win, so given several more racks to try it's very possible they would have one a game or two, it's not like I ran out 3 racks on all of them. Statistics. Now let's say I lost my first match 0-2 and got knocked out, that gets put in the system but it's only a small sample as I would not loose against those guys this way, so my 0-2 loss is only a small blip on the overall win/loss games I have vs players of that rating. I would have to lose a lot of 1-2 and 0-2 matches to make a dent in my rating when giving up a 3-2 handicap and that just won't happen in reality over a decent number of tournaments or that simply means my rating will drop to where it evens out again and I am able to win more with the handicaps. Since my rating solidified and has been within like 10 points over several years, all the match swings over time have settled on the rating I am at.

 

[hang-the-9]

Yes, another rivalry that defies Fargo is that Evan Lunda (751) has absolutely owned Josh Filler (836) at bank pool. At nine-ball, of course, Josh is a very heavy favorite in a race to 11.

Odd you know the statistics of two players in bank pool that is almost never played outside of DCC LOL How often have those two played? And let's say Evan can beat any 800 in bank pool. The fact that most games are 8,9 or 10 ball and he loses to the 800 ranked players in that, if Fargo stuck the bank pool results in, they would maybe bring up the guy 10 points, or not even 5% of his skill level. How often have we seen two players play and thought "that guy is great but he is 5% weaker than the other one" LOL It's imperceptible except to long term statics. A lot of studies in various things like telling wight or cold apart show that for most humans the difference has to be 25% or 30% to notice a clear difference, and I doubt us looking at two players play a single match that were within 10-20% of skill could we tell them apart easily unless we watched them over 10 matches. A 750 can run out 3-4-5 racks, as can an 800, but the 800 will do it more often. So we need to keep looking for that more often time to see it. It's not like even an 800 runs a 3 pack every set they play.

Bank pool I think is even more of an odd ball game than one pocket for solid predictions, I would bet that Fargo match wins in bank pool show more lower ranked players beating higher ranked players in that game than any other.

 

[mikepage]

Yes, another rivalry that defies Fargo is that Evan Lunda (751) has absolutely owned Josh Filler (836) at bank pool. At nine-ball, of course, Josh is a very heavy favorite in a race to 11.

Be careful to not rely on a fleeting premise, that the higher-rated player is a newby at a game at which the lower-rated player is a master.

In other words Filler's performance at bank pool is a moving target, and when a player like Filler loses a long set of bank pool to a master like Lunda, Filler's a better bank pool player at the end of the set than he was at the beginning.

Even experienced gamblers get bit a fair amount by not recognizing this.

Here is a little analysis of bank pool at Derby a couple years ago

 

[eastcoast_chris]

Be careful to not rely on a fleeting premise, that the higher-rated player is a newby at a game at which the lower-rated player is a master.

That's why I wish Fargo rates were viewable by game type (9-ball,8-ball,etc). Or are they?

I have a very established 617 rating, but we play more 9 ball tournaments than 8 ball.

I truly feel I'm about a 650, 8 ball player, but a sub 600, 9 ball player.... probably because I enjoy 8 ball more

 

[sjm]

Bank pool I think is even more of an odd ball game than one pocket for solid predictions, I would bet that Fargo match wins in bank pool show more lower ranked players beating higher ranked players in that game than any other.

I know of three matchups between Filler and Lunda at the Derby and I watched all three, one of them a long action match. Lunda, a superb bank pool player as you probably know, won all three.

I think you're right in saying bank pool is an oddball game for Fargo.

 

[eg9327]

You can also be reverse sandbagged. Years ago I was a reasonable APA 4. In the final two matches in the run up to the tournament I had two 5s throw me the match. Both were 4-0 wins for me, but waaay to easy. Neither opponent could seemingly make a shot. As if by magic I was raised to a 5 for the tournament, wherein I was beat 4-1 by another 5, and out we went. I just shook my head. That was the last APA match I played, and that was 20 years ago.

 

[Coos Cues]

That's why I wish Fargo rates were viewable by game type (9-ball,8-ball,etc). Or are they?

I have a very established 617 rating, but we play more 9 ball tournaments than 8 ball.

I truly feel I'm about a 650, 8 ball player, but a sub 600, 9 ball player.... probably because I enjoy 8 ball more

There is a little spreadsheet/app that will return your fargo rating for a given set of games. The idea is to see how you performed in a tournament. If you have the time to do it and data available who you played in each game and their fargos you can use this same sheet to find the answer to your question as to whether you are playing one game at a higher rate than the other. Just have to add lines to the sheet at the bottom which it allows like any excel spreadsheet. I think you may be disappointed in the reality of it but it would be a fun exercise for your personal knowledge.

 

[telinoz]

That's why I wish Fargo rates were viewable by game type (9-ball,8-ball,etc). Or are they?

I have a very established 617 rating, but we play more 9 ball tournaments than 8 ball.

I truly feel I'm about a 650, 8 ball player, but a sub 600, 9 ball player.... probably because I enjoy 8 ball more

I was also curious to see this.

Along with 7ft vs 9ft table size.

They record this data in FargoRate, as I have seen the input csv file and know what fields they enter.
Same with how Salotto is setup, to capture game type and table size.

I know FargoRate is now focussed on the App as the main interface.
But, it could still have added functionality to show detailed breakdown by game type and table size.
I love statistics!!

In addition, a nice feature for established robustness would be an historical BEST and WORST FargoRate for yourself.. Not just a tiny 6 month, 12 month graph that makes you guess and is no good beyond 12 months of history.
I had a big 10 year gap, it would be nice to see that I was once a better player. Ha ha ha..

Anyway, they don't seem to have a way for player requests, feature requests to log them.
Other than the odd reply here and on Facebook, but no published roadmap on their website.

 

[jtompilot]

You can also be reverse sandbagged. Years ago I was a reasonable APA 4. In the final two matches in the run up to the tournament I had two 5s throw me the match. Both were 4-0 wins for me, but waaay to easy. Neither opponent could seemingly make a shot. As if by magic I was raised to a 5 for the tournament, wherein I was beat 4-1 by another 5, and out we went. I just shook my head. That was the last APA match I played, and that was 20 years ago.

Many years ago, I got bumped to a 7. I had to play a 5 who spots me the 8 ball gambling and I never came close to winning. Needless to say the 5 whooped me. When I complained to the bar owner he said "If you were on my team, you'd still be a 5. That was the last time I ever played APA.

 

[Tom1234]

Many years ago, I got bumped to a 7. I had to play a 5 who spots me the 8 ball gambling and I never came close to winning. Needless to say the 5 whooped me. When I complained to the bar owner he said "If you were on my team, you'd still be a 5. That was the last time I ever played APA.

Just damn!! I thought I was the only one this happened to. Gave up APA 8 ball for this very reason. In the local APA league, your hcp is what the LO THINKS it is; it’s not based on your true ability.

 

[jtompilot]

Just damn!! I thought I was the only one this happened to. Gave up APA 8 ball for this very reason. In the local APA league, your hcp is what the LO THINKS it is; it’s not based on your true ability.

This happens all the time. We are not the exception, we are the normal.

 

[sixpack]

Many years ago, I got bumped to a 7. I had to play a 5 who spots me the 8 ball gambling and I never came close to winning. Needless to say the 5 whooped me. When I complained to the bar owner he said "If you were on my team, you'd still be a 5. That was the last time I ever played APA.

For me it was when we had to mark the pocket and I was playing the LO and he said "Let's not do any of that mark the pocket BS we'll just call it."

So we play the match without marking the pocket and I'm shooting the 8-ball to win the match. I call it and make it. YOU DIDN'T MARK THE POCKET! LOSS OF GAME!

He was the LO so even though we argued he just held the line and said the rules are the rules.

I never played Busch/APA again.

I don't want to name him but he was a legendary early LO and tournament director/player and I had to really hold back when he passed away and people on AZB were talking about how much integrity he had. I wanted to barf.

 

[Woodshaft]

One of my biggest gripes with fargorate is that is doesn't give us an accurate indication of how well a player has been playing in the last 6 months or so, especially if that player has thousands of games in the system.
Mr. Page is constantly pointing this out on his fargorate facebook site.
He'll show how much better players like Yapp, Filler, Gorst have been playing over the past 6 months relative to their posted fargorate.
I would be thrilled if Fargorate had TWO ratings--- your standard (current) formula rate, and your "last 6-month's" rate.
I feel it would help everyone get a better idea of the player's true ability, and may "red-flag" sandbaggers.
So Mr. Page, maybe start displaying a fargorate in this format: 673/692, where 673 is current formula, and 692 is past 6-months, for example.
And/or, let us look up a person's fargorate performance (using the app) where we can set a time-frame for the performance data.
You seem to be able to do it yourself, give your app users that option too.

 

[Woodshaft]

I think you're right in saying bank pool is an oddball game for Fargo.

Exactly. It is just one of many skill-sets that make a pool player great-- Lunda just seems to be freakishly good at banking.
The world's greatest free throw shooter in basketball isn't the world's best player, for example. He just specializes in free throws.