IPT Break and Run Stats

[Colin Colenso]

With about half of the first round's results collected the run out off breaks are as follows:

Group A: 18 / 67 games played
Group B: 14 / 72
Group C: 18 / 92
Group D: 20 / 101
Group E: 21 / 94

Total is 100 Runouts from 426 games. Under 25%

I've got stats on about 40 games for runouts after break and break percentage. Haven't added them up yet but they are below previous estimates. So much for those who said it would be too easy for the pros to run out.
Break percentage about 55 I guess and runout after break maybe just 65%, but I'll add up stats later.

There is a bit of pressure, but basically there are only maybe 10 guys shooting at the percentages we'd expect. The One would be cruising here!

 

[nfty9er]

colin could u help us out

With about half of the first round's results collected the run out off breaks are as follows:

Group A: 18 / 67 games played
Group B: 14 / 72
Group C: 18 / 92
Group D: 20 / 101
Group E: 21 / 94

Total is 100 Runouts from 426 games. Under 25%

I've got stats on about 40 games for runouts after break and break percentage. Haven't added them up yet but they are below previous estimates. So much for those who said it would be too easy for the pros to run out.
Break percentage about 55 I guess and runout after break maybe just 65%, but I'll add up stats later.

There is a bit of pressure, but basically there are only maybe 10 guys shooting at the percentages we'd expect. The One would be cruising here!

We are not getting any info from the ipt site. Do you know it is not providing live updates.

Do you know the replacement players for the no shows? Nobody has reported it.

I know you are busy keeping stats but any help and match results would be appreciated.
Thanks

 

[SlimShafty]

With about half of the first round's results collected the run out off breaks are as follows:

Group A: 18 / 67 games played
Group B: 14 / 72
Group C: 18 / 92
Group D: 20 / 101
Group E: 21 / 94

Total is 100 Runouts from 426 games. Under 25%

I've got stats on about 40 games for runouts after break and break percentage. Haven't added them up yet but they are below previous estimates. So much for those who said it would be too easy for the pros to run out.
Break percentage about 55 I guess and runout after break maybe just 65%, but I'll add up stats later.

There is a bit of pressure, but basically there are only maybe 10 guys shooting at the percentages we'd expect. The One would be cruising here!

Nice work, are there refs at every table collecting stats? what stats are they keeping track of besides GLI,Break/run and 8 on break? have you, or are they collecting balls made on the break stats? I was very curious to see how certain players did on the break, it would seem to me those making the most balls on the break will have an advantage.

 

[rackmsuckr]

There are about 7 refs, 1 for each set of 2 tables but they aren't keeping stats.

I put current scores up in another thread.

 

[MVPCues]

I bet the break and run percentage will go up a little tomorrow. Maybe a little over 30%. Some of the players will get used to the conditions, and some of the players who are losing close ones might loosen up and go for the run outs more?

Kelly

 

[ironman]

Running Out?

This is all quite intresting. I still maintain that this is more money than most of these guys have played for and pressure is going to play a big part of it.
Enough pressure will burst a water pipe!
I still like Corey Duel. He has a way of capturing the break and on all sorts of equipment.
It still though, is quite early!

 

[chefjeff]

It still though, is quite early!

I agree, there has not been enough trials to judge any trends yet. Give this thing a year and then we'll have a more accurate picture of what the stats reveal.

Oh, until then...nyah nyah nyah

Jeff Livingston

 

[Colin Colenso]

We are not getting any info from the ipt site. Do you know it is not providing live updates.

Do you know the replacement players for the no shows? Nobody has reported it.

I know you are busy keeping stats but any help and match results would be appreciated.
Thanks

So many results happening it would be hard to keep you up to date and still see any matches.

I'll keep an eye on what you can get here and as the field narrows I'll try to update important events.

When I left a couple of hours ago, it seems Allison just missed out in her group even though she won 3 of 5 matches. 4 drew on 3 wins but seems she missed out on a countback.

As for replacements I'm sure they'll settle that after the tourney.

 

[nfty9er]

Thanks

So many results happening it would be hard to keep you up to date and still see any matches.

I'll keep an eye on what you can get here and as the field narrows I'll try to update important events.

When I left a couple of hours ago, it seems Allison just missed out in her group even though she won 3 of 5 matches. 4 drew on 3 wins but seems she missed out on a countback.

As for replacements I'm sure they'll settle that after the tourney.

Well the site finally started working. Found out a replacement for O'Sullivan was Larry Scwartz and what a way they decided. Bet that was exciting.

Stats for break and runs through round 4
Bracket 1, 25 percent
Bracket 2, 27
Bracket 3, 31
Bracket 4, 32
Bracket 5, 24

 

[Colin Colenso]

Very Interesting Stats

More Stats from my own Collection:

Total 55 Frames sampled randomly from matches withe the following players:
Mika v Earl, Souquet v Williams, Feijin v Allison, Owen v Putman, Earl v Schmidt, Archer v Nick VDB, Gerder v Schmidt, Robles v Morris and Owen v Souquet.

Ball off Breaks = 24 from 55 = 43.6%
Break & Run Outs from Sample = 10 = 18.2%
Legal breaks followed by runout = 10 / 24 = 41.7%
Runout % after break (legal or not) = 22 / 55 = 40%
Breaker Win % = 26 from 55 = 47.3%​

I was always cautious about my expectations of high run percentages, partially for fear of hoping they would be much lower than the claims that some made about how easily pros run out.

I've no doubt the stats will climb for the top players as the tourney progresses but fact is, quite mediocre percentages would get most players through most matches at the IPT. eg: A break percentage of 50% and run-out from first shot after break of around 60% would put you in the upper echelon today.

The best break and runner was Cory I think who was just over 35% of frames won I think.

 

[rackmsuckr]

I think breaking from the box and the tighter pockets have some effect on this tournament over old stats taken from Gold Crowns.

 

[Colin Colenso]

Well the site finally started working. Found out a replacement for O'Sullivan was Larry Scwartz and what a way they decided. Bet that was exciting.

Stats for break and runs through round 4
Bracket 1, 25 percent
Bracket 2, 27
Bracket 3, 31
Bracket 4, 32
Bracket 5, 24

How did you calculate that? [edited...oh, my calculations from the final day one results]
I just tested the final results of Group 4 and got 55 Break and Runs from 183 games played = 30.1%

Seems percentages started too climb toward the end of the day as many players relaxed more.

Busta was best with 17 out of 40 won frames which is about 42.5%. But it is a guess that he actually broke 40 times, he may have had a couple less.

Compare Allison with just 3 break and runs due to her pathetic break. With a good break, she would be very very strong!

 

[Snapshot9]

I think

it is interesting to note that the women players, for the most part,
did not have that many break and runs.

Karen had 7 (The most)
Allison had 3
Gerda had none
Helena had 2

While most of the men had 6-7 or more.
Django had 17 (wow)
Niels had 15
Manalo had 15
Van den Berg, Deuel, and Hohmann had 13
Hundal, Robles had 12
Mika, Gabe, and Shawn had 10
keith, archer, Davenport, Souquet had 9

It was interesting to note that in Gabe's losing to Shawn 7-8,
that Gabe had 4 break and runs, and Shawn had 3.

 

[jsp]

Ball off Breaks = 24 from 55 = 43.6%
Break & Run Outs from Sample = 10 = 18.2%
Legal breaks followed by runout = 10 / 24 = 41.7%
Runout % after break (legal or not) = 22 / 55 = 40%
Breaker Win % = 26 from 55 = 47.3%​

Thanks for the stats Colin. From your 4th stat, 60% of the racks did not result in a runout after the break (legal or not). Of that 60%, can you give a guess of the average number of innings per rack of those frames? Did a majority of the runs end because of an unforced missed shot or position error, resulting in a runout by the opposing player? Did you notice a lot of safety battles? Thanks.

 

[Colin Colenso]

Thanks for the stats Colin. From your 4th stat, 60% of the racks did not result in a runout after the break (legal or not). Of that 60%, can you give a guess of the average number of innings per rack of those frames? Did a majority of the runs end because of an unforced missed shot or position error, resulting in a runout by the opposing player? Did you notice a lot of safety battles? Thanks.

Hard to summarize, a lot, maybe 60% of the rest of those were over on the next visit, some of the others got into little tactical duals, but there weren't a lot of safeties.

Most started off tryng for the out but messed up position or missed pots.

 

[Snapshot9]

B&r

Thanks for the stats Colin. From your 4th stat, 60% of the racks did not result in a runout after the break (legal or not). Of that 60%, can you give a guess of the average number of innings per rack of those frames? Did a majority of the runs end because of an unforced missed shot or position error, resulting in a runout by the opposing player? Did you notice a lot of safety battles? Thanks.

Colin ... When considering break and runs, I have already had to correct
2 guys for oversights on their part, 1 did not include games won by opponents
to get total games played and then divide by 2 for number of breaks a player
had, and the other calculated the B&R percentage with total games played instead of just the number of games that particular player broke.
For example, Django won 40 games, his opponents 20 for 60 /2 = 30 breaks
with 17 B&R for 56.67% average.

It is interesting to note that the women, except Karen,
did not do too good with break and runs.
Karen 7
Allison 3
Gerda none
Helena 2

 

[Colin Colenso]

it is interesting to note that the women players, for the most part,
did not have that many break and runs.

Karen had 7 (The most)
Allison had 3
Gerda had none
Helena had 2

I paid some particular attention to Allison's and Karen's breaks. They've obviously never trained to break hard from open table.

Allison's was smooth but slow and she got a lot of topspin on the CB on most I saw.

Karen had this high up loop bridge up close to the CB trying to jump the CB into the rack for some reason. If I broke with her bridge the CB would jump right over the table without touching cloth, rail or ball. Anyway, they split apart ok, but I'm sure the girl's break and make % was probably 33% and under.

 

[Snapshot9]

Would be nice

Colin ... If you could just pick some table after the break,
and put the layout on RSB, and see how many AZ'rs could
get out the same way the pro does.

 

[Cane]

...but I'm sure the girl's break and make % was probably 33% and under.

Colin, Did you mean the "girl's" as in Karen's or the "girls'" as in all the women's break and make percentage. Not being a smarta$$, just curious

BTW, Shoot well. Take out some big dogs and make AZB proud!

Later,
Bob

 

[Colin Colenso]

Colin, Did you mean the "girl's" as in Karen's or the "girls'" as in all the women's break and make percentage. Not being a smarta$$, just curious

BTW, Shoot well. Take out some big dogs and make AZB proud!

Later,
Bob

All the girls seemed to have pretty weak breaks, but I felt they compensated for it with their open table play.

I think the girls have benefited greatly from having played in so many televised events. They seemed quite calm and collected where many of the men seemed to be a bit affected by the situation.

Anyway, thanks for the encouragement, I do feel after watching this that I can win my fair share of games when I play at the next tourney. Still, I'd prefer to let my cue do the talking