on the site www.internationalpooltour.com under rankings it states that mike sigel nor loree jon jones had any run outs. interesting that mike sigel, didn't have ANY run outs, considering most on this forum are thinking their gonna see run out after run out. just thought i'd point this out. either mike was rusty, or 8-ball provides too many problem clusters for run outs. any thoughts?
Just The Facts
- Thread starter 8-ball bernie
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onepocketchump
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I think it was an oversight on the part of whoever put the stats up. Mike had at least five break and runs. I think Loree might have had one.
I'll have to check my notes on the stats. I have a fairly good account of the match written down.
You are gonna see plenty of run outs. When you get a shot you better run out or lock your opponent up.
One thing I am not sure of - I don't think it is call pocket except on the eight. I seem to remeber that Mike missed a ball and it went in another pocket and he got to keep shooting. But I am not sure. I hope it's call pocket.
John
I'll have to check my notes on the stats. I have a fairly good account of the match written down.
You are gonna see plenty of run outs. When you get a shot you better run out or lock your opponent up.
One thing I am not sure of - I don't think it is call pocket except on the eight. I seem to remeber that Mike missed a ball and it went in another pocket and he got to keep shooting. But I am not sure. I hope it's call pocket.
John
yeah, called shots would be nice, and judging by their tough conditins i'm SURE it will be all called shots, but we shall see.
onepocketchump said:
It should definitely be call pocket. The IPT is supposed to be making the rules so that the "luck" is taken out of the game, so call ball and pocket on all shots seems appropriate.
8-ball bernie said:
My guestimate is that the average IPT Tour Player performance will be to Runout about 60% of the time after their break. So if they make a ball off the break 80% of the time, the overall runout rate will be close to 50%.
That means the average IPT player should be about a 1 in 32 chance of running a 5 pack when they get a chance to break.
The top players in flow will be around 70% I imagine. So the top players would be about a 1 in 6 chance of running a 5 pack and a 1 in 20 chance of running 9 pack. At this percentage, a top player in stroke would run 20 racks about 1 in a thousand attempts...though I've never heard of such a high run, so maybe my percentages are too high.
Has anyone studied some stats from big 8-ball events to see if these figures are in the ball park?
Colin Colenso said:
Hey Colin,
No stats in this reply. But I was talking to Mike M. the other night about this very topic - he expects to see a bunch of 6-packs from whoever is in top form during the tourny. He does not, however, expect to see anyone run 8-9 racks, given the specific dynamics (pockets, cloth, etc).
Interestingly, he will be practicing his game here at my fave pool hall, primarily due to the 4-1/16" pockets. That way the 4-1/4 at the IPT will seem (almost) like buckets!
I thought they were gonna use 4 1/2" in the IPT.VonRhett said:
I heard they used 4 1/4" at the last 9-Ball World Championships.
I may be getting mixed up.
I guess a lot of larger runs could be cut off because players reach the end of their set. I'll be suprised if we don't see at least an 9-pack in the first event if the count continues into the next set.
I do hope I'm overestimating the players.
Let me know if Mike can beat the 8-ball ghost. (No ball in hand after the break...frame is lost if don't get a ball in off the break). He doesn't event need to really play the ghost...you can count the racks he breaks and see if he runs out more than 50%.
Packages?
If you make it even money for a top player to break and run out, it's 1,023 to 1 against him turning in a 6 pack. I did the following by hand and only once so I might not be exactly right but here goes: a twenty pack goes all the way up to 968,575 to 1.
These figures presuppose that our hero makes a ball on the break every time, which is not likely on the tougher equipment with slower cloth.
sniper said:You sure like your numbers don't you Colin
If you make it even money for a top player to break and run out, it's 1,023 to 1 against him turning in a 6 pack. I did the following by hand and only once so I might not be exactly right but here goes: a twenty pack goes all the way up to 968,575 to 1.
These figures presuppose that our hero makes a ball on the break every time, which is not likely on the tougher equipment with slower cloth.
Does anyone know ...
What stats are to be recorded from the KOH tournament?
Will they record how many breaks, how many times a ball
made on the break, how many runs, how many consecutive
runs (packs)?
And of the stats, will they be available to the public?
You can forecast all you want, but having actual results
gives you the best vehicle for studying a system or format
to see if it is good, or if it needs changes, or just to be able
to analyze a player's performance.
What stats are to be recorded from the KOH tournament?
Will they record how many breaks, how many times a ball
made on the break, how many runs, how many consecutive
runs (packs)?
And of the stats, will they be available to the public?
You can forecast all you want, but having actual results
gives you the best vehicle for studying a system or format
to see if it is good, or if it needs changes, or just to be able
to analyze a player's performance.
Not even close. In 2001, Accu-stats had an invitational round-robin 8-ball tournament with 6 of the top players in the world including Archer and Reyes. In one match, the first nine games were won by the non-breaker. If you want to study the current state of pro eight ball, get the Accu-stats tapes.Colin Colenso said:
If there were 6 racks run in the LJJ/MS match out of 22 games played, wouldn't that only be 27%? And for MS, 5 out of 22 games (unless it was alternating breaks?) would be 23%, less than 1 out of 4, for his average.
So, would 8 ball be rated an easier break-and-run than 9 ball? I would doubt it, with all of the obstructions. Considering (according to Capelle's stats, anyway) that pros break and run in 9 ball something like 25% on average, and maybe 33% to 37% at the top end, where might this leave us in 8 ball, with tighter pockets and slower cloth?
Sweet Marissa
www.Bella-Muse.com
I read on the IPT website that they were going with 8-ball instead of 9-ball to reduce the "luck factor" so I'd assume it would be call pocket.onepocketchump said:
The basic formula is pretty simple. If the probability of an event is 50% ( 1 in 2) the chance for 6 consecutive occurrences is (1/2)^6 where ^ means "to the power of." That works out to be 1 in 64.Grady said:
Because the matches are to 9 games, the chance of having a 6-pack in a match are higher because you could fail the first couple of racks and then run 6. As I calculate it, the chance that the winner of the match will have a 6-pack is about 1 in 16. This assumes the BRO is 50% which is probably much too high an estimate, as I said before.
I'm pushing for a theory exam to make up 50% of the IPT rankings scoresniper said:You sure like your numbers don't you Colin
Thanks for the info Bob.Bob Jewett said:
I'd get the Accustat tapes but I don't have an NTSC VHS player and they're quite expensive and of little use in China.
I'm looking for DVD's.
Still, I'll be very suprised if at the finishing end of the tournaments the Break and Run Out percentage doesn't climb about 50% for the winning players. This is pretty common in English 8-ball and I consider run outs easier on US 9' tables.
Of course, I'm speculating and very much appreciate the feedback.
Any stats on average percentage a ball is made off the break? I would have assumed about 80% is typical at the top level....maybe a bit lower.