Probably a foul.
If you want to understand the difference between foul and fair, set the shot up between the side pockets where you have more room. Instead of the shot where the cue ball is a mm or two from the object ball, bring it back an inch or so along the line of the stick you plan to use. See what the path of the cue ball looks like in that setup for your masse shot. Now gradually bring the cue ball forward, trying shots at each smaller distance, and always using the same fullness you chose at the start.
To better see the initial forward penetration, put a second object ball a little forward of the expected path of the cue ball. If you don't hit that ball with the cue ball back a little but do hit it with the cue ball close, you are fouling with the cue ball close. Alternatively, set up the camera for a better view, like along the perpendicular to the path of the OB and on the other side.