Luck vs Skill Percentage - What Do You Think?

bbb said:
reminds me of the guy i play onepocket with
he lets me get to 4 or 5 then wins the game
he tells me lots of stories af getting spots from people he could GIVE spots to !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Yep. Some try to win more games by getting better at playing pool. Others try to win more games by setting up better matchups. It's a skill. It can be pushed to some sleazy extremes and will continue to be as long as people bet on pool.

The guy I mentioned earlier had one job his entire adult life outside of playing pool... he was a carney for like 2 years. So ye, an even bigger hustle than what he pulled for near 3 decades at the pool tables.
 
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RT Ford said:
Can you name a third alternative?
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There is quite a bit of room in between rando luck and puppet master.
You can believe in a cold deterministic model of the universe that doesn't need a puppet master.
You can believe in the math of probabilities and label anything most people would see as 'lucky' as 'short-term variance' that will even out over time.
You can believe in magical thinking where ppl attract what they believe in and luck goes to the more powerful creator.
And Im sure you can find many things more silly than the last one which has a decent following.

I once had a guy tell me that if you break the balls and they get all tied up it is because of some struggle in your life. If you are are flowing and feel good, with no turmoil in your life, the balls break wide open. He read breaks like psychics read tea leaves.

Ye....people believe a lot of things. Certainly more than the 2 options you presented.

FWIW, I'm firmly in the luck exists camp as I've been incredibly fairy-tale lucky in my life. Or maybe I'm just blessed to be the puppet masters favorite puppet :p
 
WobblyStroke said:
There is quite a bit of room in between rando luck and puppet master.
You can believe in a cold deterministic model of the universe that doesn't need a puppet master.
You can believe in the math of probabilities and label anything most people would see as 'lucky' as 'short-term variance' that will even out over time.
You can believe in magical thinking where ppl attract what they believe in and luck goes to the more powerful creator.
And Im sure you can find many things more silly than the last one which has a decent following.

I once had a guy tell me that if you break the balls and they get all tied up it is because of some struggle in your life. If you are are flowing and feel good, with no turmoil in your life, the balls break wide open. He read breaks like psychics read tea leaves.

Ye....people believe a lot of things. Certainly more than the 2 options you presented.

FWIW, I'm firmly in the luck exists camp as I've been incredibly fairy-tale lucky in my life. Or maybe I'm just blessed to be the puppet masters favorite puppet :p
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Just because someone believes in fairies, doesn't mean they exist. I believe that luck exists and the only alternative is to believe that everything is predetermined and out of our hands. I also believe that God is in control but He allows us to live our lives pretty much the way we want. Our choice to do good or evil determines our eternal destiny. God doesn't send anyone to Hell, people choose to go there.
 
RT Ford said:
Just because someone believes in fairies, doesn't mean they exist. I believe that luck exists and the only alternative is to believe that everything is predetermined and out of our hands. I also believe that God is in control but He allows us to live our lives pretty much the way we want. Our choice to do good or evil determines our eternal destiny. God doesn't send anyone to Hell, people choose to go there.
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So there you go....people can have conflicting beliefs at once. Good example.
 
WobblyStroke said:
There is quite a bit of room in between rando luck and puppet master.
You can believe in a cold deterministic model of the universe that doesn't need a puppet master.
You can believe in the math of probabilities and label anything most people would see as 'lucky' as 'short-term variance' that will even out over time.
You can believe in magical thinking where ppl attract what they believe in and luck goes to the more powerful creator.
And Im sure you can find many things more silly than the last one which has a decent following.

I once had a guy tell me that if you break the balls and they get all tied up it is because of some struggle in your life. If you are are flowing and feel good, with no turmoil in your life, the balls break wide open. He read breaks like psychics read tea leaves.

Ye....people believe a lot of things. Certainly more than the 2 options you presented.
++
FWIW, I'm firmly in the luck exists camp as I've been incredibly fairy-tale lucky in my life. Or maybe I'm just blessed to be the puppet masters favorite puppet :p
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"Luck" means different things to different people. A man from the Caribbean totaled out his Firebird and sold it to me for salvage. He came back six or eight months later and wanted to buy it back. He said he had sold his luck. He was very upset when I told him it wasn't there to buy back.

Looking at luck as variance, it should equal out over time. It might, but there is a catch, that time can be greater than one lifetime! Pool doesn't lend itself well to modeling, poker does. Using software a poker player was created. Then the exact poker player was duplicated eight or nine times. Then it was estimated how many hands a professional player played in a lifetime based on facts gathered.

They set the computer awhirl and in a very short time had a lifetime of poker played. They were surprised. All but three of the poker players indeed clumped pretty close together for winning hands. Two of those players fell way to one side of the norm and one far to the other side. At least one of the players was as unlucky as any cartoon character. At least one could do no wrong! These results turned out to be typical over many runs. It should be noted that giving one of the poker players even very slightly more skill made a huge difference in lifetime winnings.

When I started Catholic school in the third grade I was quickly introduced to gambling. There were one or two nickel raffles every morning. The raffles were for a tray of cupcakes or a cake a student's mother made. After a few months I realized the penguin was cooking the books, the poorest children won the most by a bunch! At our recesses totaling well over an hour back then we were allowed to gamble dropping marbles at a cigar box. That I was very good at! No luck or "luck" involved!

A lady was truly a pillar of the community and the church. She could do things that appeared to be magic with just a prayer and a quick look around or whatever. Others can stop bleeding. Stopping bleeding was pretty amazing. Easy to say it was people's belief, but some people stop bleeding in animals too. Anyway this lady paid a small price. We were at an outdoor activity and I noticed her checking her food carefully. I asked her why and she told me anytime food was prepared outdoors she would be the one that got a bug or something in her food. Then she unwrapped a hamburger, opened it, and pulled out a big green catepillar!

I have had people I knew that believed in witchcraft. Generally intelligent but uneducated people. Sometimes highly educated people. Witchcraft, magic, the power of prayer, luck, one name is probably as good as the other, at least while we live.

I think it pays to believe in a little luck in life, it can be a comfort. Not good to believe in too much luck, it takes away self determination. In pool there is no real luck. If I set up a shot on a pool simulator it happens exactly the same if I run it a few million times. Miscues and such aren't luck, neither are five rail flukes. Everything the balls would do was determined when the tip struck the cue ball. The same actions get the same reactions, over and over and over again. For those not blessed with luck that is a good thing. Reading a book about Titanic Thompson destroyed the faintest interest in cards with strangers for more than penny ante stakes. Pool, we can play anyone in the place known or unknown and the balls are going to play the same.

Hu
 
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BarTableMan said:
Soooo...if a player makes a 2 rail kick and cuts the 8-ball into the side pocket which was 12 inches from the pocket...is it luck or skill? We re-setup the shot and it took him 23 tries to make it again. Is 5% a luck shot or is 10%? Where is the line? I'm thinking anything less than 10% is just luck. Thoughts?
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Buddy Hall has said many times "If I'm playing for a lucky shot and I succeed, did I make a good shot or did I get lucky?"

I think the outcome has to be linked to the intention for this type of question. If you are out playing fetch with your dog and you find a $1,000,000 ancient Roman coin in your backyard, that is "luck". If you are going around in a ship diving for treasure or walking around with a metal detector and it takes years to find something on the same level, that is "skill" even though you need a bit of "luck" to succeed. A low % chance of something happening may not be just good fortune but can be linked to preparation.
 
ShootingArts said:
"Luck" means different things to different people. A man from the Caribbean totaled out his Firebird and sold it to me for salvage. He came back six or eight months later and wanted to buy it back. He said he had sold his luck. He was very upset when I told him it wasn't there to buy back.

Looking at luck as variance, it should equal out over time. It might, but there is a catch, that time can be greater than one lifetime! Pool doesn't lend itself well to modeling, poker does. Using software a poker player was created. Then the exact poker player was duplicated eight or nine times. Then it was estimated how many hands a professional player played in a lifetime based on facts gathered.

They set the computer awhirl and in a very short time had a lifetime of poker played. They were surprised. All but three of the poker players indeed clumped pretty close together for winning hands. Two of those players fell way to one side of the norm and one far to the other side. At least one of the players was as unlucky as any cartoon character. At least one could do no wrong! These results turned out to be typical over many runs. It should be noted that giving one of the poker players even very slightly more skill made a huge difference in lifetime winnings.

When I started Catholic school in the third grade I was quickly introduced to gambling. There were one or two nickel raffles every morning. The raffles were for a tray of cupcakes or a cake a student's mother made. After a few months I realized the penguin was cooking the books, the poorest children won the most by a bunch! At our recesses totaling well over an hour back then we were allowed to gamble dropping marbles at a cigar box. That I was very good at! No luck or "luck" involved!

A lady was truly a pillar of the community and the church. She could do things that appeared to be magic with just a prayer and a quick look around or whatever. Others can stop bleeding. Stopping bleeding was pretty amazing. Easy to say it was people's belief, but some people stop bleeding in animals too. Anyway this lady paid a small price. We were at an outdoor activity and I noticed her checking her food carefully. I asked her why and she told me anytime food was prepared outdoors she would be the one that got a bug or something in her food. Then she unwrapped a hamburger, opened it, and pulled out a big green catepillar!

I have had people I knew that believed in witchcraft. Generally intelligent but uneducated people. Sometimes highly educated people. Witchcraft, magic, the power of prayer, luck, one name is probably as good as the other, at least while we live.

I think it pays to believe in a little luck in life, it can be a comfort. Not good to believe in too much luck, it takes away self determination. In pool there is no real luck. If I set up a shot on a pool simulator it happens exactly the same if I run it a few million times. Miscues and such aren't luck, neither are five rail flukes. Everything the balls would do was determined when the tip struck the cue ball. The same actions get the same reactions, over and over and over again. For those not blessed with luck that is a good thing. Reading a book about Titanic Thompson destroyed the faintest interest in cards with strangers for more than penny ante stakes. Pool, we can play anyone in the place known or unknown and the balls are going to play the same.

Hu
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David Sklansky is basically the fatherof a mathematical approach to poker. My favorite line of his was:

"Sure luck wil balance out in the long term. But what most people don't realize is just how looooong the short term can be."

I wasn't aware of that simulated poker player study but it jives with what I've seen analyzing my own play history as well as that of other players. One of the biggest midstakes small tourney players Ive ever seen had a 1500 game sample the exact opposite slope of the rest of his graph. If those games were played live and he played every day, hed be losing for 4 years....and more than likely quitting for good before his cooler was over.
 
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BarTableMan said:
Soooo...if a player makes a 2 rail kick and cuts the 8-ball into the side pocket which was 12 inches from the pocket...is it luck or skill? We re-setup the shot and it took him 23 tries to make it again. Is 5% a luck shot or is 10%? Where is the line? I'm thinking anything less than 10% is just luck. Thoughts?
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Take a pro and a bad player. Both have 100 goes at these tasks:
Task 1 - straight shot screw back where the balls are a large distance (say 7 feet) apart. Diagonal across the full length of the table. Ball potted and cue ball screwed straight back into the other pocket of the diagonal.
Task 2 - 'a 2 rail kick and cuts the 8-ball into the side pocket which was 12 inches from the pocket'

Task 1. Pro makes it 80+ times. Bad player can't do this. Makes it zero times. Shot requires pure skill.
Task 2. Pro hits the ball pretty much every time. Pots it? 10 times at the most? Bad player doesn't always hit it but manages to pot it at least once.

So luck is in play because if you are a bad player you still have some sort of chance of completing the task. It doesn't require a brilliant cue action. You can get lucky.

Aaah - but you said the pro makes it more times so it must be skill?

I don't think there is a true answer as such here. Great question for thought though.
 
WobblyStroke said:
David Sklansky is basically the fatherof a mathematical approach to poker. My favorite line of his was:

"Sure luck wil balance out in the long term. But what most people don't realize is just how looooong the short term can be."

I wasn't aware of that simulated poker player study but it jives with what I've seen analyzing my own play history as well as that of other players. One of the biggest midstakes small tourney players Ive ever seen had a 1500 game sample the exact opposite slope of the rest of his graph. If those games were played live and he played every day, hed be losing for 4 years....and more than likely quitting for good before his cooler was over.
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Dirty software and superusers are the best reasons not to play internet poker but it is interesting. Some players could handle twenty tables or more back then, I don't know how many now. Going through that many hands they only took primo hands. One guy only started with pocket aces! On the other hand these guys had to make instant decisions, I think I won my share from them.

The bots were another interesting class of player. There was a site with nothing but forums for building and trading bots. The good thing, a little play with a bot and you could understand how it was wired. I knew one bot was weak, it had the strongest possible hand and folded to a shove! After that I shoved unmercifully when I could isolate that bot. It ran for an entire weekend. Bet the owner was surprised to see it lost money when he came back to work monday morning!

Anyway, internet poker reduces luck to zero, for the insiders. Otherwise it would be nice to play since you can see hundreds or maybe thousands of hands an hour. I was up to six tables when the ban came and things were definitely getting easier. Wish it had been around when I was a teenager and put my efforts into chess in the daytime and pool at night.

Hu
 
ShootingArts said:
"Luck" means different things to different people. A man from the Caribbean totaled out his Firebird and sold it to me for salvage. He came back six or eight months later and wanted to buy it back. He said he had sold his luck. He was very upset when I told him it wasn't there to buy back.

Looking at luck as variance, it should equal out over time. It might, but there is a catch, that time can be greater than one lifetime! Pool doesn't lend itself well to modeling, poker does. Using software a poker player was created. Then the exact poker player was duplicated eight or nine times. Then it was estimated how many hands a professional player played in a lifetime based on facts gathered.

They set the computer awhirl and in a very short time had a lifetime of poker played. They were surprised. All but three of the poker players indeed clumped pretty close together for winning hands. Two of those players fell way to one side of the norm and one far to the other side. At least one of the players was as unlucky as any cartoon character. At least one could do no wrong! These results turned out to be typical over many runs. It should be noted that giving one of the poker players even very slightly more skill made a huge difference in lifetime winnings.

When I started Catholic school in the third grade I was quickly introduced to gambling. There were one or two nickel raffles every morning. The raffles were for a tray of cupcakes or a cake a student's mother made. After a few months I realized the penguin was cooking the books, the poorest children won the most by a bunch! At our recesses totaling well over an hour back then we were allowed to gamble dropping marbles at a cigar box. That I was very good at! No luck or "luck" involved!

A lady was truly a pillar of the community and the church. She could do things that appeared to be magic with just a prayer and a quick look around or whatever. Others can stop bleeding. Stopping bleeding was pretty amazing. Easy to say it was people's belief, but some people stop bleeding in animals too. Anyway this lady paid a small price. We were at an outdoor activity and I noticed her checking her food carefully. I asked her why and she told me anytime food was prepared outdoors she would be the one that got a bug or something in her food. Then she unwrapped a hamburger, opened it, and pulled out a big green catepillar!

I have had people I knew that believed in witchcraft. Generally intelligent but uneducated people. Sometimes highly educated people. Witchcraft, magic, the power of prayer, luck, one name is probably as good as the other, at least while we live.

I think it pays to believe in a little luck in life, it can be a comfort. Not good to believe in too much luck, it takes away self determination. In pool there is no real luck. If I set up a shot on a pool simulator it happens exactly the same if I run it a few million times. Miscues and such aren't luck, neither are five rail flukes. Everything the balls would do was determined when the tip struck the cue ball. The same actions get the same reactions, over and over and over again. For those not blessed with luck that is a good thing. Reading a book about Titanic Thompson destroyed the faintest interest in cards with strangers for more than penny ante stakes. Pool, we can play anyone in the place known or unknown and the balls are going to play the same.

Hu
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You say ' in pool there is no real luck'? I disagree. You can call it anything you wish, but I choose to call anything that happens by chance..... luck.
Luck Definition & Meaning | Britannica Dictionary
1 : the things that happen to a person because of chance : the accidental way things happen without being planned
 
RT Ford said:
You say ' in pool there is no real luck'? I disagree. You can call it anything you wish, but I choose to call anything that happens by chance..... luck.
Luck Definition & Meaning | Britannica Dictionary
1 : the things that happen to a person because of chance : the accidental way things happen without being planned
Click to expand...

The thing is in pool what matters is action and reaction. Whatever the balls do is dictated by your hit and the condition of the table. There isn't any random action anywhere in the chain of events. For luck to be a factor there has to be something to randomize the outcome.

Hu
 
ShootingArts said:
The thing is in pool what matters is action and reaction. Whatever the balls do is dictated by your hit and the condition of the table. There isn't any random action anywhere in the chain of events. For luck to be a factor there has to be something to randomize the outcome.

Hu
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So you're saying that if my opponent misses a shot and the cue ball hits 2 rails and 3 balls and settles in a position that gives me absolutely no shot, it's not bad luck for me? Really?
 
RT Ford said:
So you're saying that if my opponent misses a shot and the cue ball hits 2 rails and 3 balls and settles in a position that gives me absolutely no shot, it's not bad luck for me? Really?
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Yes, Really. Might be in this very thread that I talked about player's style. A fairly advanced player is unlikely to hit the balls hard enough to get the outcome you describe, so probably a bit of a banger. He is going to make balls that he never even considered, get more safeties he didn't plan, and also scratch more and get in more trouble. Chances are he rearranges the furniture every shot or two also.

While they may make you crazy in the very short term these moderately skilled players that let the cue ball fly should be no real threat.

Hu
 
ShootingArts said:
Yes, Really. Might be in this very thread that I talked about player's style. A fairly advanced player is unlikely to hit the balls hard enough to get the outcome you describe, so probably a bit of a banger. He is going to make balls that he never even considered, get more safeties he didn't plan, and also scratch more and get in more trouble. Chances are he rearranges the furniture every shot or two also.

While they may make you crazy in the very short term these moderately skilled players that let the cue ball fly should be no real threat.

Hu
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I don't consider an opponent in pool a 'threat'. Here's the definition of luck again from The Britannica Dictionary, just in case you missed it the first time....
Luck... Definition & Meaning | Britannica Dictionary
1 : the things that happen to a person because of chance : the accidental way things happen without being planned.
 
Orcollo told me no good player is playing against luck, or even another opponent. They are setting out to play themselves. He told me it was about 'pulse' which I infer to mean temperament. He said the run of the balls can be a factor, and something we don't calculate when considering our perfect game. Which I guess is what we would then call 'bad luck' - I guess we also put situational and player pressure also into that when our ego is busy pumping us up with all the good shots we made that one time and should therefore always make...
 
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