Modeling long races mathematically...results may surprise you!

[ShootingArts]

wish I knew the answer to this

John,

Best I recall, break and runs are a losing percentage in competition. I don't know if anyone has compiled a large database of break and wins, maybe accu-stats has and I am unaware of it. The number of breaks and wins is what I would like to know for the various games. One-pocket, no doubt the break is huge, all other games it depends on both the player's abilities and their smarts. As a gambler, I was never a run out player if I could lock up the other player with a good "accidental" safety. My break and run percentage was very low. My break and win percentage was huge.

Hu

Actually since we talking stats - AccuStats tracked this very notion that the break is an advantage and I believe - feel free to correct me - that they found that the breaker lost more than they won over a large number of matches.

I certainly believe that if both players are in peak condition then it's very close to 50/50 each game. Although between the two I'd give Alex the slight edge because he simply has six more years of experience playing top shelf pool and unlike Strickland he doesn't give up ever. I say Strickland because if I want to use the experience as an edge then of course Strickland has a lifetime more than Shane does.

 

[Bob Jewett]

John,

Best I recall, break and runs are a losing percentage in competition. I don't know if anyone has compiled a large database of break and wins, maybe accu-stats has and I am unaware of it. ..

I'm pretty sure Pat Fleming did stats on break-and-wins and it was less than 50%. This is surprising since in any lop-sided match, you expect the champ to string racks even if the chump occasionally gets a shot or two. All of the Accu-stats newsletters with all of the normal stats they took are on-line at http://www.sfbilliards.com/accustats/

 

[av84fun]

I really dont think its fair to say that two equal players of SVB and Alex's caliber is a 50/50 every game. I think you have to factor in whos breaking. The break is a huge advantage for pro level players. Its kinda like roulette, its not quite 50/50 to bet red or black because there is the 00 factor (which is green). JMO.

Southpaw

Actually O and OO. (In America)

The house pays 35/1 when the odds against are 37/1.

That's how they can pay to keep all those lights burning!!!

(-:

 

[ShootingArts]

Thanks!

I'm pretty sure Pat Fleming did stats on break-and-wins and it was less than 50%. This is surprising since in any lop-sided match, you expect the champ to string racks even if the chump occasionally gets a shot or two. All of the Accu-stats newsletters with all of the normal stats they took are on-line at http://www.sfbilliards.com/accustats/

Appreciate the info Bob. I'll have to do some digging and see if any break and win stats are posted. I would have thought that breaks and wins would be over fifty percent, especially in the pro game. Maybe they are as bad as me and the other pigeons about not knowing when it is time to duck.

Hu

 

[dabarbr]

I've noticed that most guys call heads. If I was a cheater I would get a 2-sided tails quarter. Then if they were the type of guy that called tails before you flipped I would flip it off the table and when I went to pick it up I would switch for a real quarter.

I would get a small edge that would win me some money over time and then one day I would spend all that money I'd won on dental work when a bruiser caught me with the two-tailed quarter.

I knew a guy that used a two tailed quarter and always had a regular quarter in his hand and would switch them after the toss like a magician.

Which is why I always waited to call until the coin is in the air.