This is a long post, but 14.1 is a long game, so I guess that's how it is.
Somebody posted a link to this great run the other day.
http://tinyurl.com/yoe6bx
The great thing about this video is that each shot is numbered, and you can scroll forward to any shot number without waiting for the whole video to download. I had posted the other day about playing certainties vs percentage shots and got some interesting responses. I wanted to comment on a few of Neils' shots and see what people here think was going on, or should have been going on. I'm trying to get a better handle on when great players know exactly where the cue ball is going and when they don't. Of course I could barely carry Neil's cue case so don't think I'm criticizing him. I'm just trying to figure out what his thought process was. Too bad he doesn't post here so he could tell us himself.
Scroll to the 13th shot (score says 12)
He walks very briefly I assume to see the cue ball path, then walks over to see either the path of the ob to the pocket, or maybe to look at the tangent line. If I were shooting the same object ball, I would have thought carefully about where the cue ball wanted to go, where I could make it go instead, and which side of which ball I wanted to hit. In this case I would try to draw into the ball in the middle of the rack, on the high side if possible, so that the cue ball drifts over to the open space a little for a shot on a ball into the low left pocket. It probably takes a lot of draw with a more delicate stroke. Feijen caroms off two balls and gets a shot, but he is so casual about it that I’m not so sure he knew that was going to happen. Was he playing this position or was he trying to do something else that didn't work? There is another shot in the run where he plays a two rail position after caroming off a ball, so I know he can play position off a carom.
Scroll to the 80th shot (score says 79)
The cue ball goes into the high side of the dark ball, drives through and scatters the rest nicely. I didn’t see any safety ball before the break out. In this run, the balls seem to be spreading easily. So, did he play a shot that Steve Lipsky describes as one of those educated guesses where the odds of getting a shot are in your favor? Since he was going in high on the dark ball, would he have thought that he’d have a shot on the striped or other dark ball into the side pocket? I can’t see risking a 79 ball run by not knowing exactly what is going to happen in this instance. Or putting it another way, getting snookered with a wide open table puts you in big trouble for your match.
Scroll to the 95th shot (score says 94)
Is this a pot luck shot? The balls are slick and are opening nicely, so is he playing the odds that he can draw into the cluster, and still hold on to that nice break ball? Actually the very next shot is the one I mentioned above about playing two rail position off a carom. It’s a very nice shot.
There are others, but I think you can see what I'm getting at. I know you can go into a cluster without regard to what will happen, and you might get in trouble. Or, you can go into the cluster and modify the cue ball path just enough to give you good odds at coming off clean and getting another shot. Last, and maybe not really feasible in most cases, you can go into the cluster, figure out where the important balls will go, and assure yourself of a shot.
I'm just curious if you think these are all educated pot luck shots, or if there is more than meets the eye.
Thanks!
dwhite
Somebody posted a link to this great run the other day.
http://tinyurl.com/yoe6bx
The great thing about this video is that each shot is numbered, and you can scroll forward to any shot number without waiting for the whole video to download. I had posted the other day about playing certainties vs percentage shots and got some interesting responses. I wanted to comment on a few of Neils' shots and see what people here think was going on, or should have been going on. I'm trying to get a better handle on when great players know exactly where the cue ball is going and when they don't. Of course I could barely carry Neil's cue case so don't think I'm criticizing him. I'm just trying to figure out what his thought process was. Too bad he doesn't post here so he could tell us himself.
Scroll to the 13th shot (score says 12)
He walks very briefly I assume to see the cue ball path, then walks over to see either the path of the ob to the pocket, or maybe to look at the tangent line. If I were shooting the same object ball, I would have thought carefully about where the cue ball wanted to go, where I could make it go instead, and which side of which ball I wanted to hit. In this case I would try to draw into the ball in the middle of the rack, on the high side if possible, so that the cue ball drifts over to the open space a little for a shot on a ball into the low left pocket. It probably takes a lot of draw with a more delicate stroke. Feijen caroms off two balls and gets a shot, but he is so casual about it that I’m not so sure he knew that was going to happen. Was he playing this position or was he trying to do something else that didn't work? There is another shot in the run where he plays a two rail position after caroming off a ball, so I know he can play position off a carom.
Scroll to the 80th shot (score says 79)
The cue ball goes into the high side of the dark ball, drives through and scatters the rest nicely. I didn’t see any safety ball before the break out. In this run, the balls seem to be spreading easily. So, did he play a shot that Steve Lipsky describes as one of those educated guesses where the odds of getting a shot are in your favor? Since he was going in high on the dark ball, would he have thought that he’d have a shot on the striped or other dark ball into the side pocket? I can’t see risking a 79 ball run by not knowing exactly what is going to happen in this instance. Or putting it another way, getting snookered with a wide open table puts you in big trouble for your match.
Scroll to the 95th shot (score says 94)
Is this a pot luck shot? The balls are slick and are opening nicely, so is he playing the odds that he can draw into the cluster, and still hold on to that nice break ball? Actually the very next shot is the one I mentioned above about playing two rail position off a carom. It’s a very nice shot.
There are others, but I think you can see what I'm getting at. I know you can go into a cluster without regard to what will happen, and you might get in trouble. Or, you can go into the cluster and modify the cue ball path just enough to give you good odds at coming off clean and getting another shot. Last, and maybe not really feasible in most cases, you can go into the cluster, figure out where the important balls will go, and assure yourself of a shot.
I'm just curious if you think these are all educated pot luck shots, or if there is more than meets the eye.
Thanks!
dwhite