My point with the flipping coin example is that, in chaotic systems, what you do at the beginning bears such weight in the outcome that the outcome becomes highly unpredictable.
Now, I never said 9-ball is a random game. If you go for an incredibly unlikely carom shot, you still aim somewhere that makes sense if you want to make it. What I said is that, if you make that unlikely carom shot, the likelihood of you making it twice is so low it can't possibly be called anything but luck. In other words, there are a number of variables in the equation of the shot, any deviation from the exact correct value in all these variables result in a miss, and you got them all perfect once, but you won't do it twice. Luck...
I agree that there are many considerations that can come into play, but just because you make a low percentage shot, it does not mean it is pure luck. I can set up low percentage shots all day, I will miss most of them (duh, that is why they are called low percentage!), BUT I can come close on most tries, and be successful on many tries. This is an UNLIKELY shot, not a lucky shot! Look at some impressive trick shot artists, they are shooting some very unlikely shots and are making them usually pretty consistantly. Even if consistantly may mean 1 out of 4 or 5 tries. When they make it, I do not believe it is lucky.
And truthfully, you do not control all of the variables you mention. In truth you do not control any of them! You control your body and your cue, that is it! Strictly speaking you have angle - the line of the shot, Speed- how hard you hit the cue ball, and Spin- where you hit the cue ball. That is it! So technically you have a whopping 3 variables on ANY shot! Now all of the those other variables may come into play when PLANNING the shot and choosing how to alter those 3 things, but when PLAYING the shot, all you have are 3 variables- period. No more, no less!
True, but the difference is that you don't deliberately aim for unlikely shots on the 8, and when you see a dangerous shot that may sink it, you steer away from it. For that reason, the likelihood of sinking the 8 drops to almost nothing. As for the 8 on the break, it's not very likely in the first place either, but if it happens, it gets spotted in the rules we play.
I'm an above average banger, and I don't think I've sunk an 8 in the past 6 months. And I play a lot of 8-ball. That's how unlikely it is.
Well, I play in both an 8 and a 9 ball league weekly. Making the 8 on the break is not hard to do at all. I hung one last night. A guy made one on me last night. It is not that uncommon at all. I have done it 3 out of 4 games on a 9 foot table. Way more common are early 8 balls, and scratches on the 8 ball, or making it in the wrong pocket. There are more ways to lose than to win.
It isn't a luck game. A good player will consistently beat his opponent without resorting to lucky shots, just like in any other call shot games. My beef with it is that the rules allow lucky shots to happen, and for those who can't play any better, even condone them. When a banger gets lucky and wins, it makes me mad. When he doesn't, well, he still messed up the entire table trying his shite shot and I have to clean up after him, and it bothers the hell out of me.
I can play 9-ball okay, I just hate playing it for the above reason. However, when I happen to play 9-ball with reasonable players who try to play position, and only resort to 9-ball shortcuts when they look conceivably doable (or even better, when they plan the shortcut in their runout), then I have absolutely no problem with the game whatsoever.
I will say that is how the game should be played. I rarely play low percentage 9 ball shots when I want to win. Again, ALL rules of all games allow for lucky shots! Lucky safes, lucky position with no intent, etc. It really sounds like you just need to play better players1 Seriously! I am sorry, but I do not think that a banger is going to beat me in a race to 7 on luck! He may get a lucky 9 once, twice, even 3 times! But he will not get a game deciding lucky shot 7 times before I win 7 games. If he does, it is because I gave him the opportunity to! Again, NOT LUCK! If I am not getting out when I am supposed to, or missing my position, not getting my safes, then I lost because of MY FAULTY PLAY and ERRORS on my part, he did not get lucky at all. Unless you say he is lucky I am not playing well!
And like I said, if you are playing 8 ball, and you leave your last ball hanging in the pocket and the 8 ball on the end rail with him sitting on a tough bank- Then he fires that bank in at 90mph ( called the pocket, of course) the cue ball goes around 6-7 rails and then lands 1 inch off the end rail with a nice short shot on the 8 ball, WAS THAT LUCK? He did not break any rules, so the rules of 8 ball must also allow for luck too. Also, he could not set up that shot again and make it successfully, so by your definition above it is a pure luck shot.
The only reason I prefer call shot games over 9-ball is that they force the bangers to play reasonably.
So STOP PLAYING THE BANGERS! That is what I believe is truly your problem. If I do happen to get a banger in a long set, I love it! Sure, they will make some crazy shots, but the more a player goes for crazy shots, THE MORE I KNOW HE HAS NO CONFIDENCE IN HIS RUNOUT ABILITY! I love when I see him get ball in hand with 4 balls left and he lines up a low percentage combo. In the long run, he will miss that 9 and leave an easy 9 for me! Trust me, it will work out against him in the long run. I just smile and say " nice shot" when he fires the 9 ball in off 5 rails and two balls. I know it won't last. It is almost always easy to play safe on these guys and get ball in hand whenever you need it. And they NEVER play safe back! Just let them see the ball on a long bank and they fire away at the low percentage shots everytime leaving you the runout. It is very simple to beat this kind of player very easily!
Jw
Okay then, just 2-1 odds? still no? why not?
