nine ball ghost
- Thread starter indymike
- Start date
iba7467 said:
Wow, you know a LOT of guys. I'm sure I've SEEN 1,000 pool players in my day but have not WATCHED anywhere near that many with any close attention being paid. (-:
Since there is no specific objective standard to rate pool players, the question actually defies reasonable responses. But if a B player is an APA 8-9 then I would bet heavily against them in a race to 5.
If there were 5 different B players...so that the +/- errors in the rating could average out, I would lay 8-5 against 3 of them winning...2-1 against 4 winning and 3-1 against all 5 winning.
In fact, the race to 5 format would actually disfavor the pros because a couple of bad rolls could do them in against the ghost in such a short race.
For example, in a race to 3 the pro needs to win 60% of the racks...race to 5 = 55.5% and race to 10 = 52.6.
Personally, I think the top player's ability to beat the ghost is significantly overrated. If they could do so routinely, then practically all pro matches would end in 2 innings.
And consider the break and run percentage. A recent thread here suggested the BnR% at 30-35%. Well, clearly, to run out, the pro had a shot on the lowest ball...maybe not BIH but a makable shot and they only get out 35% of the time when to beat the ghost they need to get out more than 50% of the time.
That's why I think that what I perceive to be a B player has little chance except by rolling lucky in a race to 5 and nearly no chance in a race to 10.
Just IMHO.
Regards,
Jim
Bob Jewett said:
Actually, re: races to roughly 10 or less, the length of the race does make a difference mathematically. See my post #22.
But as I noted there, I agree with you that even A players cannot beat the ghost all that consistently on reasonably tight tables.
Regards,
Jim
mantis99 said:iba7467 said:
Damn it- don't say that! I've got a gorgeous Andy Gilbert (link to pic in my sig) that I won't take out of its case (haven't even looked at it in a couple months- it's my incentive to improve) until I beat the 9-ball ghost (without a combo or a fluke)- I wanna try it out before I'm older and grayer.
I'm gonna go out on a limb and try the 10ball ghost a little?
duh
everybody is acting like the ghost never misses or something!LOL
jeremy
don't know where these guys are playing, but anything short of playing on a three cushion billiard table and i'll play the ghost(9ball), and i promise i'm at best a strong B or a weak A player depending on the other players in the the room.donny mills said:
everybody is acting like the ghost never misses or something!LOL
jeremy
Maybe I wasn't clear. What I way trying to say is that if a player is favored to beat the ghost for one length of match, his is favored to beat the ghost at all lengths of matches. Of course, this is only true if you accept standard methods from probability and statistics. An example:av84fun said:
Suppose a player is 51% to win each game against the ghost. If he plays the ghost a race to 2, the chance he will win that race is 0.514998. If he plays
the ghost a race to 3, the chance he will win is 0.518745. With each increase in the length of the match, the chance that the better player will win the match is increased.
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Bob Jewett said:
That's funny, I would have expected the odds to converge on 51% as the match gets longer, but these numbers seem to be diverging from it more and more. Is that right? What would the 51% favorite's percentage be over an infinite length match?
Just curious (not yellow)...
pj
chgo
av84fun said:
I consider anyone less than APA 9 as a C player. I know a few APA 7s and even a couple 6s that have a fairly even shot at beating the ghost.
Essentially if someone is not barred from playing in the APA I would consider them no more than a B player (exception that they allowed Jason Kirkwood, Brian Gregg, Ike Runnels and a few others to play in the APA Masters Division).
Two players local to us have won the US Amatuer Championship twice and there are guys I consider only good B players that can give them the 7.
This purely my opinion of player rankings.
BTW, good job on the longer set odds.
Consider casinos. On each bet, they are only a 51% or a 53% favorite, but if you sit at the table long enough, they are certain to have your money. The longer you play, the more certain you are to lose. The fact that most people can't do this much math is part of the reason casinos are still in business.Patrick Johnson said:
In an infinite length match, the 51% player is guaranteed to win. Probability and statistics gives an approximation that tells you how many games you have to play to for a particular percentage for the match. In the case of a 51% single-game favorite, I think you need a match to about 5000 before the odds get to around 2:1.
just bustin balls, I like Larry and your ok to 
iba7467 said:
From the major views of rankings, yours are too high. A C player has some idea of what position is but does not have the skill to execute, and has many shots missing from his arsenal. An APA9 in 9-ball would be a good B if not an A. My brother-in-law is a 9 in APA, with a average layout and ball in hand he gets out most times. A C would have issues running 3-4 balls. Going by what the common rankings are, yours are a level off.
I am a good B player, in Tourneys where the A player is barred, I normally get in the top 3, I can normally beat the 6 ball ghost on my 9 foot home table (avitar), however, when I play 9 ball ghost, I win about 50% of the time, I do short races, race to 5.
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DeadPoked said:
Hahah.. Psychological warfare!
Ghost
I think that some areas have too many complicated ratings. In the old days, the ratings were simply 1 to 10 period, a money rating. The best in the world was a 10. I usually rate today with a 1 to 12 rating (Which most major 9 ball handicapped tournaments use). For example, for our big Thanksgiving tournament here, Tony Fargo is an 11.
If someone asks me my opinion regarding a matchup of 2 players, I will relate what I think they are with one decimal place, player A is an 8.3, player B is a 9.1. (there is a significant difference between an 8.3 and an 8.9, for instance).
Why don't you do this? Find a player that you consider a top half B. Bet them $20 that they can't beat the ghost to 5. Then record how they do, and how many times. Then come back here and tell us the results, and what equipment they played on.
I think that some areas have too many complicated ratings. In the old days, the ratings were simply 1 to 10 period, a money rating. The best in the world was a 10. I usually rate today with a 1 to 12 rating (Which most major 9 ball handicapped tournaments use). For example, for our big Thanksgiving tournament here, Tony Fargo is an 11.
If someone asks me my opinion regarding a matchup of 2 players, I will relate what I think they are with one decimal place, player A is an 8.3, player B is a 9.1. (there is a significant difference between an 8.3 and an 8.9, for instance).
Why don't you do this? Find a player that you consider a top half B. Bet them $20 that they can't beat the ghost to 5. Then record how they do, and how many times. Then come back here and tell us the results, and what equipment they played on.
Oh. Right. Duh.
pj
chgo
it is interesting how differently people view these things. However, given the general ideas of what an A,B or C player should be able to do. There is no way a C player is beating the 6 ball ghost with any consistency. Not even a high C player. I would think that B players beat the 6 ball ghost often, but have trouble consistently beating the 7-9 ball ghost. With a 9 foot table and tournament pockets (say 4.5"), I would be surprised if the average pro beat the 9 ball ghost more than 60% of the time.