Risk vs Reward - Wang vs Morris

[TATE]

My friend from Canada, RecoveyJones sent me a fantastic set of tapes from this year's WPC in Taiwan.

There has been discussion of risk versus reward. Do you take the difficult safe or the even more difficult shot?

In the short races to 5, Hung-Hsiang Wang is on the hill at 4 - 3 and Rodney Morris misses a nine-ball combo (which he really should have made) and jaws the nine. Fortunately, he gets relatively safe and ends up like this:

START(
%CJ1D9%DN7D7%Ei3R6%Gf6M5%ID1D0%Pm8F1

)END

WEI

Wang can't see enough of the 3 to combo in the nine, even banking the 3 off the rail. He can try to safe, but with the 9 sitting there, a sell out is likely unless he can hook Rodney. What did he do? (If you know, please don't tell.).

Ps. By the way, there is a famous phrase by my old hustler friend, Buffalo Bill, that covers this exact situation -

 

[Rude Dog]

My friend from Canada, RecoveyJones sent me a fantastic set of tapes from this year's WPC in Taiwan.

There has been discussion of risk versus reward. Do you take the difficult safe or the even more difficult shot?

In the short races to 5, Hung-Hsiang Wang is on the hill at 4 - 3 and Rodney Morris misses a nine-ball combo (which he really should have made) and jaws the nine. Fortunately, he gets relatively safe and ends up like this:

START(
%CJ1D9%DN7D7%Ei3R6%Gf6M5%ID1D0%Pm8F1

)END

WEI

Wang can't see enough of the 3 to combo in the nine, even banking the 3 off the rail. He can try to safe, but with the 9 sitting there, a sell out is likely unless he can hook Rodney. What did he do? (If you know, please don't tell.).

Ps. By the way, there is a famous phrase by my old hustler friend, Buffalo Bill, that covers this exact situation -

I'll take a shot at it. I think I'd try to kick 2 rails at it and leave the CB behind the 4. If ya hit it good, ya hook him, if not, you leave him long, hopefully. I'm interested in finding out what he tried and whether or not it worked. Peace.

 

[Rickw]

Can the CB get behind the 4? If so, I might try to kick the 3 and make the 9. If not, I'd try to play the 1h shot banking the 3 across corner. The CB will go back approx where it is now giving you a shot at the 4/9 if you make the 3 and a possible hook behind the 7 if you miss it. Also, the 3 may stop mid bottom rail if you miss the shot giving the opponent a tough shot at the very least.

 

[JDB]

Can the CB get behind the 4? If so, I might try to kick the 3 and make the 9. If not, I'd try to play the 1h shot banking the 3 across corner. The CB will go back approx where it is now giving you a shot at the 4/9 if you make the 3 and a possible hook behind the 7 if you miss it. Also, the 3 may stop mid bottom rail if you miss the shot giving the opponent a tough shot at the very least.

I see three options. The first two mentioned by Rick and Rude Dog are good options... If I tried the cross corner bank I would hit it with some speed because I don't like the angle and would hope if I missed to come back and make the 9 on the combo. I would rather kick 3 rails than 2 rails in this situation because I think I would get a fuller hit on the 3 (coming in at a steeper angle off the 3rd rail) which would stun the cueball behind the 4 leaving a safe.

 

[TATE]

I'll take a shot at it. I think I'd try to kick 2 rails at it and leave the CB behind the 4. If ya hit it good, ya hook him, if not, you leave him long, hopefully. I'm interested in finding out what he tried and whether or not it worked. Peace.

That would be a good shot and it certainly is viable, but that's not what he did. Good thinking.

Chris

 

[TATE]

Can the CB get behind the 4? If so, I might try to kick the 3 and make the 9. If not, I'd try to play the 1h shot banking the 3 across corner. The CB will go back approx where it is now giving you a shot at the 4/9 if you make the 3 and a possible hook behind the 7 if you miss it. Also, the 3 may stop mid bottom rail if you miss the shot giving the opponent a tough shot at the very least.

The cue ball can't get behind the four. The bank on the 3 is a low percentage shot and a sell out if you miss without a hook because he will be able to billiard in or combo the nine ball off any shot that leaves the 3 down table.

Chris

 

[Rickw]

JDB,
To try to bank it with enough speed to get the 3 to possibly make the 9 would force you to let your CB completely go and that's not a good idea when you're playing a pro. The CB would come back down table and a sellout would be a real big possibily if you don't scratch as well. Whatever the shot, I think you need to take good care of the CB.

 

[TATE]

I see three options. The first two mentioned by Rick and Rude Dog are good options... If I tried the cross corner bank I would hit it with some speed because I don't like the angle and would hope if I missed to come back and make the 9 on the combo. I would rather kick 3 rails than 2 rails in this situation because I think I would get a fuller hit on the 3 (coming in at a steeper angle off the 3rd rail) which would stun the cueball behind the 4 leaving a safe.

I think Rude Dog's kick is easier. Here's what I think he means - this would be a high right cueball:

 

[JDB]

JDB,
To try to bank it with enough speed to get the 3 to possibly make the 9 would force you to let your CB completely go and that's not a good idea when you're playing a pro. The CB would come back down table and a sellout would be a real big possibily if you don't scratch as well. Whatever the shot, I think you need to take good care of the CB.

I agree, it is a make or break shot, which is not necessarily the way to play it. However, the options are fairly limited. If you miss the shot you are a 95% loser given the setup, which is the time to take risks.

If you slow roll it (as in one pocket), you take the chance of leaving it short of the pocket, which is sell out too.

 

[jaz]

One additional thought would be a one rail kick between the 5 & 7. A full hit on the 3 sends it up table with the cue by the 4, a thin hit gives the chance for the 3 to make the 9 and a thick hit gives the chance for the cue to make the 9.

 

[JDB]

I think Rude Dog's kick is easier. Here's what I think he means - this would be a high right cueball:

I think it is an easier hit too, but given the angle it will hit the 3 ball, I think it it would be difficult to stop the cue ball after contact.

I think using the 3 rail angle, you would have a better angle coming behind the 3 to make the cue stop after contact. However, the hit would be more difficult going the 3 rail route.

It will be interesting to find out what he actually did do and whether it worked.

 

[TATE]

One additional thought would be a one rail kick between the 5 & 7. A full hit on the 3 sends it up table with the cue by the 4, a thin hit gives the chance for the 3 to make the 9 and a thick hit gives the chance for the cue to make the 9.

BINGO - you get the grand no prize.

That's exactly what he did. He walked around the table, lined it up, aimed for the far side of the three, and sank the nine. There was no question that's what he was trying to do. I think it was the best shot I've seen all year.

 

[Rickw]

If I'm going to kick it, I like RD's shot the best. You have a much better idea of what speed to use. The more I look at that shot, the more I like it. For a 1h player, the cross bank isn't bad either. I'll stick with my shot but if I couldn't see the edge of the 3, I'd definitely shoot Rude Dog's shot.

 

[jaz]

Maybe I have a shot at learning this game afterall... maybe one of these days I'll actually find a stroke that can repeatedly make the shots I can see...

 

[TATE]

One additional thought would be a one rail kick between the 5 & 7. A full hit on the 3 sends it up table with the cue by the 4, a thin hit gives the chance for the 3 to make the 9 and a thick hit gives the chance for the cue to make the 9.

I think that most players would have shot the thin hit safety shown below - at least that's what I would do, and try to hook him or leave the cueball on the far rail (so he can't make the billiard into the nine).

Morris started to get hot before he missed the combo and Wang knew he was dead if he didn't get the hook, so he decided to try to end it right then and there. In this case, he had to weigh the risk versus the reward. Of course, it helps if you kick like god - which he does!

 

[TATE]

Ps. By the way, there is a famous phrase by my old hustler friend, Buffalo Bill, that covers this exact situation -

I almost forgot. Buffalo would often blurt out:

"When in doubt, ride the 9!"

 

[sjm]

Gotta go for the win here. Either with a one rail kick or the way shown below. My thinking is that if your billiard knowledge is good enough to execute the two rail safety, it's good enough to give you a good chance at making the nine if you, instead, go for the win.

 

[AuntyDan]

Dang, Jaz beat me to it because I can't get &(#@!ing Shockwave to install on my new PC.

Personally I don't like the thin cut bank, you'd have to hammer it to get the ball all the way across with that thin a cut and you lose the cue ball altogether. Even in the diagram posted it looks like the cue ball kisses into the 3 on the bottom short rail, which would almost certainly sell out the rack.

I also don't like the 1 or 2 rail kick into the back of the 3, because if you hit the 3 too straight there's a real danger of rolling it out into the middle of the table without either the 3 or the cue making a rail after the hit and again you have to hit it hard to avoid this. (Although given this was a high-end tournament one can assume new 860 and clean balls, so maybe not as much power would be been neeeded as on the average slower table.)

 

[sjm]

I almost forgot. Buffalo would often blurt out:

"When in doubt, ride the 9!"

Ah, no doubt you're referring to the great Waterdog. What a character, and boy, he could play jam up.

 

[TheOne]

I like sjm 1 cushion option, or I also prefer the 5 cushion rout which is not a difficult shot and one most good players prob practice.