Safe Break or Let Him Go For It ?

[Mickey Qualls]

Mickey,

Problem is if you don't make a couple of like balls on the break. Can assure you if you give me an open rack, you will lose 90% of the time. Without your three balls. Accidents do happen so you do have a chance.

Like the idea of fouling to make the last needed ball. Won a trip to Vegas years ago with that shot. My opponent was thrilled to see me foul. Didn't understand the ramifications till other players started to congratulate me. Only then did it sink in. All balls stay down. Even illegally made ones.

Lyn

I hear ya, Cardiac Kid.

I guess some of it might depend on how the breaks are going. Sure, anything can happen. But if I'm making balls 90% of the time, I like my odds.

Now, if you told me I had to make 6 or 7 balls, now I might be in favor of the safe break. But I'm leaning towards going all in on my only needing to make three balls.

I just gotta make SOMETHING on the break.

Well, beside the cue ball or the eight ball, that is

 

[cardiac kid]

I hear ya, Cardiac Kid.

I guess some of it might depend on how the breaks are going. Sure, anything can happen. But if I'm making balls 90% of the time, I like my odds.

Now, if you told me I had to make 6 or 7 balls, now I might be in favor of the safe break. But I'm leaning towards going all in on my only needing to make three balls.

I just gotta make SOMETHING on the break.

Well, beside the cue ball or the eight ball, that is

You bring up another interesting point. What is my break percentage? Never really sat down and recorded what percentage of the time I make a ball on the break other than the cue ball. With my 8 ball runs total being roughly 36% of the total games I played, it doesn't appear to be too high. The wild card is how many games I didn't run out yet made a ball (or two) on the break. Never considered the percentage of getting only three or four balls. Interesting observation worth further consideration.

Lyn

 

[supergreenman]

Given the scenario you presented, I'd have to say go for it.

But it would totally depend on how the breaks were going in general as well as how I was breaking.

I have a problem with the team line-up though. At least the opposing team line up as the OP didn't really say where in his team line up he was ranked.

A smart captain would never risk stranding his best player (especially the leagues best player).

Your best player should always play first spot in the last round. He either keeps you in the match if you're down or, he puts it out of reach if your up.

Who should you put in the last spot? Your 3rd best player (given 5 person teams).

In order of ability this is how I make sure I enter the last round of a match.

1st <-two good games from your 1st and 2nd best players
2nd can put the match to rest.
4th
5th
3rd

 

[Maniac]

well that's the diference between you and me.you think its your rack I think its the teams rack.if you play by yourself its your rack.jmo

Well.....what if the team is split??? Whatcha gonna do, flip a coin??? Me, I'm going to break 'em the way I think I have the best chance of winning.

Maniac (the way 87.50% of the pollsters would)

 

[Maniac]

Keep in mind folks, it's BCA format. Table is open after the break. All you have to do is pocket a single ball and choose which category of balls you want to try and pocket three balls. I like my odds of winning here by breaking hard square into the face of the front ball. Maybe you don't, that's YOUR opinion.

Not looking for an argument here or to make bets, just giving my opinion, which is what I believe is what the OP intended for me to do.

Maniac (has confidence in his full-rack break)

 

[Maniac]

Given the scenario you presented, I'd have to say go for it.

But it would totally depend on how the breaks were going in general as well as how I was breaking.

No doubt, this would be part of the equation.

Maniac

 

[Cdryden]

I would go for it using a controlled break. Keep whitey in the middle of the table increases your chances of getting a decent shot if you happen to make one on the break.

If you play a safe break and the other guy is a good player chances are that you wont get a clear shot at anything even if you do get back to the table.

 

[RRfireblade]

Winners always want the ball.



But if this was said oh well.....

Depends on the conditions, table size, how I've been breaking, what the other player has to get to before I get my 3. All that sort of stuff.

If I've been making balls on the break and I only need three, I don't see how wouldn't be going for it.

 

[Mickey Qualls]

Winners always want the ball.



But if this was said oh well.....

Depends on the conditions, table size, how I've been breaking, what the other player has to get to before I get my 3. All that sort of stuff.

If I've been making balls on the break and I only need three, I don't see how wouldn't be going for it.

And I think that's the key.

If I make ONE ball, and for some reason the better player gets to the table and manages to run out, then my team loses the match by ONE ball.

If I make TWO balls, and for some reason the better player gets to the table and manages to run out, then we tie for the overall point. And have to play a sudden death game.

If I make THREE balls, then it's over. Cue sticks get put down and everybody shakes hands.

So not only does that better player have to win, he has to keep me from making three balls.

I'm liking my odds if I'm regularly sinking something on the break.

And the only time I want him to get out of the chair is to shake my hand for winning the match.

I'm going for it.

 

[lorider]

i can see a safe break against an average player if you only need 3 points.

against the best in the league ? i am going for it. even with a safe break you might not get back to the table against the best player except to kick at a ball.

if he runs a few and plays safe he will get ball in hand more than likely and keep you sitting after that.

i had an apa 6 saftey me to death one night. he had a couple problem clusters and he would pocket a ball and lock the cue ball up. get bih , pocket a ball and lock the cue ball up again. did it about 4 times then ran out.

btw i also play bcapl. i am a 5 in apa and a 7 in bcapl. most nights i have 2 break and runs in bcapl with the open break format so i would like my chances of going for it only needing 3 points.

now in apa its a different story. i get a break and run about once a session with the closed break lol.

 

[victorl]

I agree with the break-and-go-for-the-win option. You just need 3 balls, so if you make a ball on the break and you're a heavy favorite to win. Getting into a tactical battle with a much stronger player will just result in a slow and painful death.

 

[Donny Lutz]

Play safe every time in this situation

What is playing scared?

Breaking soft gives you the highest chance of getting the 3 balls you need to win. Make a legal break, and go back and fourth, and don't as much as you want to go for that "easy" breakout shot you see because you will rattle it.

I'd rather break safe and stand with the winners trophy and money, then have someone say at least you didn't go out scared.

I totally agree. I've won many an event while playing the soft break in such situations. And I've managed to finish a league season with high league average 47 times...just sayin'...

 

[CreeDo]

Needing only 3 balls, I'm gonna break safe. Can't let macho thinking get in the way.

Dry hard breaks happen all the time. And usually that = a loss vs. the top player.
Even shane on a good day might break dry 20% or so. Those are like russian roulette odds.
Someone who breaks like a normal human probably has it much worse... closer to coin flip odds.

You're (almost) definitely getting back to the table after a soft break, at some point he's gonna need to do multiple breakouts and one of them won't work out, and then he's done. It's a lot of added stress also, trying to run a mission-impossible rack while trying to protect the cue ball from ALL your other balls on every single tricky shot. This will increase his odds of dogging it.

 

[Cornerman]

For a couple of years, I was the top player in my area. I was the other player in the OP's scenario. If I needed the big runout win, I hoped the other guy would foolish enough to give the table back to me on a non-crushed break thinking he was playing some kind of safe strategic game against me. I was known as the guy who could runout from anywhere in 8-ball. Junk break or not.

The OP has the break. Break and try to make a ball. Don't think you'll get in a pitter patter with me (back then) when my one move is to get a big clearance.

Freddie <~~~ shell of that player

 

[twal]

Never EVER play the game scared. If you lose, do it by going for it all.

Knock hell outta them balls and send the guy packing, for crying out loud!!!

If you fail at either scenario, you would feel better in the end knowing you went for it with gusto, not feebly.

Maniac

This is the best post and I agree 100 percent.

I also look at it like this.
Your are in league in BCA format.
The two toughest positions are the lead and the anchor (just my opinion).
The captain put you there to win the match if needed.
You must be a player that can handle the pressure otherwise he made a foolish mistake in putting you there.
You also are a person who can break and run with anyone and a smart player.

As I was an up and coming player I did use the safety break all the time against the best player in town. The problem was when I did manage to get back to table he had always hooked me. So it did not matter if I did the safety break or not. He was a better overall player than I was. He still is. I have shame in that.

It took me a while to lean and grow and I realized that my best chance was break and go for it. He is a master level player but I fell like I have a 40 percent change of winning by going for the break and run.

There is no shame in going for the break as you normally do.
Odds are you make a ball 60 percent or more of the time.
If you can't break well then that is the captains fault for putting you in that position.

If I am your team captain I am expecting a break and run form you.
I now hold nothing back because i know it is my best bet.
i don't care what the score is I am always going to try to break and run. If and when I don't I never feel bad about it because I know the odds are in my favor with me at the table.

 

[Cornerman]

If you can't break well then that is the captains fault for putting you in that position.

If I am your team captain I am expecting a break and run form you.

You think the other post was the best??? Yours is the best.

The anchor man was put there for a reason. This is the reason.

Freddie

 

[taemin952]

No soft or strategic breaks here. I smash and have gotten very well at "popping the cueball" straight up into the air, ) over a foot and during that airtime, the other balls will spread out and leave an open space for the cueball to land in the center, in the clear.

 

[Mickey Qualls]

If I am your team captain I am expecting a break and run form you.
I now hold nothing back because i know it is my best bet.

I agree.

And in my scenario, you only need three balls.

As long as you make SOMETHING on the break (let's say you make one ball), you have to make two more. Provided you have a shot at ANYTHING, then after you make THAT shot, the realm of possibilities for combinations, caroms, kiss shots, banks, kicks, you name it.

The realm of possible shots just increased significantly !!!

Balls stay down on all fouls, so after I commit to the group I want, I only have to insure that the third ball goes down by any means.

Even if playing "your ball" into "my ball" to sink that third ball means I give you ball in hand, it doesn't matter. I've already made the three balls I need. Match is over.

The last thing I want to do is give the best player in the league the opportunity to get to the table in any situation.

So if I've been sinking ball(s) on my breaks, I'm feeling pretty good about making something on this break, regardless of who my opponent is.

And, for me, the fact that I only need three balls makes the choice even clearer...

 

[Maniac]

I agree.

And in my scenario, you only need three balls.

As long as you make SOMETHING on the break (let's say you make one ball), you have to make two more. Provided you have a shot at ANYTHING, then after you make THAT shot, the realm of possibilities for combinations, caroms, kiss shots, banks, kicks, you name it.

The realm of possible shots just increased significantly !!!

Balls stay down on all fouls, so after I commit to the group I want, I only have to insure that the third ball goes down by any means.

Even if playing "your ball" into "my ball" to sink that third ball means I give you ball in hand, it doesn't matter. I've already made the three balls I need. Match is over.

The last thing I want to do is give the best player in the league the opportunity to get to the table in any situation.

So if I've been sinking ball(s) on my breaks, I'm feeling pretty good about making something on this break, regardless of who my opponent is.

And, for me, the fact that I only need three balls makes the choice even clearer...

Ahhhh.....here is someone with a clue......and what sounds like a LOT of BCAPL rule experience. Just knowing that the third ball can be made illegally and still count speaks volumes in the OP's scenario.

Best post to date, IMO.

Maniac

 

[onepocketron]

I look at my percentage of making a ball on the break. Last week we were playing on two tables, but there was one that hardly anyone was making a ball on the break. If I need 3 balls and am playing on that table, knowing almost no one has made balls on the break, I'm not breaking them wide open for my opponent. I'm making a legal break to leave him a really ugly table, betting he can't run out with a wad of balls in the middle of the table. With that said, if I'm playing on the other table, where balls were being made frequently off the break, I'm crushing them.

I kind of liken this to you have a run out going, but have fallen real funny on the next shot. You can shoot it and hope you don't fall bad on the next ball, or you can play an easy monster safe to really lock your guy down. If I'm playing, you are facing an ugly kick. It's a personal choice. I'm not risking falling bad on the next one when I can really put you in jail.

Me, I know my ability both in strenghts and weaknesses. I'm playing the percentages every time be it soft break, or crush em. It's entirely a personal choice, but I'm playing the percentages that give me the best odds to win.